Democrat Hochul Wins in NY 26th

Democrat Kathy Hochul won a decisive victory over Republican Jane Corwin in New York’s special election in the predominantly Republican district in upstate New York. Hochul, with 90% reporting, took 48%, to 42% for Corwin, with Tea Party candidate Jack Davis at 9%. Democrats highlighted the medicare issue, and were quick to trumpet the result as a repudiation of Republican Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan.

“Today, the Republican plan to end Medicare cost Republicans $3.4 million and a seat in Congress,” said Rep. Steve Israel (N.Y.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “And this is only the first seat.”

The Republicans will point to the Tea Party candidate and his numbers in this race, but this is a district that is solidly Republican. The Medicare issue, without a doubt, hurt the Republicans here, and the Democrats will be using this playbook throughout the country. E.J. Dionne, over at the Washington Post, talks about just that, and how this race will likely send Republicans into disavow Ryan mode. A major victory for Dems, and a loss that may have Republicans rethinking their political strategy heading into 2012.

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T-Paw Makes the Announcement

Tim Pawlenty joined the Republican Presidential field yesterday via a You Tube announcement. Pawlenty, in my opinion, has to be considered for today, as the leading alternative to Mitt Romney. His announcement has him taking the position of truth teller, letting folks know that hard decisions need to be made, and that he won’t be afraid to talk about them and make them. I have to give some credit to any Presidential candidate heading into Iowa who publicly opposes ethanol subsidies. Nice announcement video. Now can he raise the money to compete?

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President Obama at AIPAC

The President goes to AIPAC after his comments on negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians using the 1967 borders as a starting point created some degree of controversy, especially with the Israeli Prime Minister and Republicans attempting to demagogue the issue. I have attached the George Mitchell interview with Christiane Amanpour, where Mitchell lucidly and honestly explains American policy. The President received a warm welcome at AIPAC, and I believe his remarks there were consistent with his earlier comments, and reflective of a deep American commitment to Israel. Barack Obama is not a standard politician, and his ability to think outside a preconceived box is something we need more of, not less. The protection of American national interests through diplomacy is not something that can be achieved through chanting slogans, but instead requires a careful and thoughtful consideration of policy ramifications, and the responses American policies will bring from other nations, in particular American allies. The President, once again, is light years ahead of his Republican opponents. Diplomacy should recognize the world as it is, and not how we wish it to be.

http://abcnews.go.com/assets/player/walt2.6/flash/SFP_Walt_2_65.swf

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Mitch Takes A Pass

The Republican Presidential field further thinned itself of serious candidates when Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels took himself out of the running today. Daniels had been looked to by many Republicans unsatisfied with the current field, but he cited family considerations in declining to enter the race. I considered Daniels a good candidate for Republicans, and at this point I see only Romney and Pawlenty as having any chance to win the nomination. In the meantime Republican Herman Cain, a former CEO of Godfather Pizza, announced his candidacy. Cain’s roll-out included an interview on Fox News Sunday, where he was asked about negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Cain clearly had no idea what Chris Wallace was talking about when he was asked about a Palestinian “right of return”, a major issue in prospective talks. After Wallace hand held him to understand what a “right of return” was, Cain said that it was fine, and certainly subject to negotiation. Apparently Cain, who passes himself off as a strong supporter of Israel, didn’t get the memo from Bibi explaining that a “right of return” was out of the question. Talk about not ready for prime time.

And speaking of prime time how about the new “warning” from Newt Gingrich directed at Democrats contemplating using Gingrich’s Meet the Press comments in political ads. Gingrich has laid down a tough marker, saying “any ad which quotes what I said on Sunday is a falsehood.” Yes thats right. Let us not quote Gingrich, because to do so would create a falsehood. Gingrich was a runaway winner of the Chris Cillizza “Worst Week in Washington” award, and as far as I can see may be striving to hold the crown for another week. An increasingly isolated and desperate Gingrich may bring additional levity to the Republican process in the weeks to come. Not a very impressive start for the GOP.

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New York's 26th Congressional Referendum on Medicare?

A special election in New York State’s 26th Congressional District to fill the seat of resigned Republican Christopher Lee is heating up, with national coverage (and money) descending on a race that should be easily Republican. Democrat Kathy Hochul has moved ahead of Republican Jane Corwin by tying the Republican to the Paul Ryan Medicare plan, making that issue the central difference in this race. Jack Davis, a Tea Party candidate, is the third candidate in the race, and he is drawing double digit support in the latest Siena University poll. If the Democrats manage to win this race the Democratic strategy of allowing the House Republicans to make the first move on entitlements and then clubbing them over the head with their own plan will have its first success.

The latest poll has Hochul pulling ahead, leading the race by 42% to 38% over Corwin, with Davis polling at 12%. Hochul has made a big move since the last survey, erasing a Corwin lead, with Davis losing almost 9 points in that time. What is the source of the move? Some interesting tidbits from the cross-tabs. Amongst the independents Hochul leads by 8 points, something that is a total reversal of the beating Democrats took from independents in the last cycle. The relative strength of the candidates with their own voters favors Hochul, as she polls at 76% support with Dems, while Corwin is holding only 66% of Republicans. And NY26 voters identified Medicare as the most important issue in this election. Amongst those voters Hochul has a huge lead, which gives some credence to the media focus on the Ryan plan, and validates the Hochul strategy of driving that issue home with attack ads on Corwin. Plenty of national coverage, with Ezra Kleinand Slate’s Dave Wiegel writing some good stories. The Siena crosstabs are here. And of course the political ads that we love so much are attached below. That election is Tuesday.

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State Senate Moves on Muni Health Care Reform

The Senate Ways and Means Committee yesterday released its version of municipal health care reform, and while it differed from the House version it certainly delivers on the promise of municipal health care reform. More to say later, the MMA description below will have to suffice for now. Great job in trying to achieve some political balance by the Ways and Means Committee.

As you know, the MMA has strongly endorsed the municipal health insurance reform proposal adopted by the House of Representatives in April, thanks to the leadership of Speaker Robert DeLeo, House Ways and Means Chairman Brian Dempsey, Vice Chairs Stephen Kulik and Marty Walz, and House Public Service Committee Chairman John Scibak. The House plan is a strong, balanced, fair and meaningful bill that would provide powerful relief for cities and towns. After the House adopted their plan by a groundbreaking 113-42 vote, all eyes turned to the Senate.

The plan proposed today by Senate President Therese Murray, Senate Ways and Means Chairman Stephen Brewer, Vice Chairs Steven Baddour and Jennifer Flanagan, Senate Public Service Chair Katherine Clark and the Senate Ways and Means Committee is a strong plan that offers significant reform for cities, towns and taxpayers.

The process established by the Senate plan differs from the House framework, yet the bottom line is very close – cities and towns would be able to implement plan design changes or join the GIC in order to achieve real savings that would be used to protect services and preserve municipal jobs, all while giving municipal employee unions more collective bargaining power over health insurance than state employees. The reform proposal would also require all municipalities to enroll all eligible retirees into Medicare.

The key provisions of the reform proposal (Sections 45-49, 51, 109 and 110 of the SW&M budget) are as follows:

As drafted, municipalities would accept the new law by vote of the Board of Selectmen, or by approval by the Mayor and Council.

The municipal executive would then propose a plan to modernize the design of their employee health plans or join the state GIC, with a guarantee that all municipal and school employees would still have health plans with co-pays, deductibles and other plan features that are at or lower than the median co-pays, deductibles or plan design features offered by the GIC.

The municipal executive’s plan would include 1) the desired plan design changes or entrance into the GIC, 2) the projected 1-year savings (or avoided costs) that the plan would generate, and 3) a plan to mitigate or moderate the impact on retirees, low-income employees and those with very high out-of-pocket costs (such as through a health reimbursement account, through a temporary subsidy of rates, or other proposals).

Communities would then convene a Public Employee Committee (PEC) identical to the make-up of the PEC in Section 19 of Chapter 32B. If a community already has adopted Section 19, then that would be the PEC. If a community has not adopted Section 19, then a temporary PEC would be established just for the purpose of negotiating on the proposal offered by the municipal executive.

The community and the PEC would have 30 days to reach agreement on the municipality’s proposal.

If no agreement is reached, the impasse would be referred to a three-member “municipal health insurance review panel” that includes a municipal representative, a labor representative, and an “impartial” third party from a list of experts in dispute mediation, municipal finance or municipal health benefits that is provided by the Secretary of Administration and Finance. If the community and labor representative cannot decide on the third member, the Secretary shall make the choice.

This review panel would have ten days to review and decide three matters: 1) whether the plan design changes for co-pays, deductibles and other features proposed by the community are at or lower than the median level of the features offered by the GIC, 2) what the one-year savings amount would be, and 3) whether the proposal to mitigate or moderate the impact of the changes on retirees, low-income workers and subscribers with high out-of-pocket costs is sufficient.

If the municipality’s proposed changes do not exceed the GIC median, the panel is required to approve the immediate implementation of the plan design changes. This means that cities and towns would be able to implement plan design reform or join the GIC. This is a strong and powerful proposal that would benefit every community in Massachusetts.

The panel would also confirm the projected savings amount, and would determine whether the mitigation proposal is sufficient. The panel could require additional savings to be dedicated to health reimbursement accounts, premium reductions, or other arrangements, but in no case can the panel designate more than 33% of one-year’s savings to the mitigation plan.

Cities and towns would still negotiate any change in the employee-employer premium share, giving municipal unions more bargaining authority over health insurance than state employee unions. Any new co-pays or deductibles higher than the GIC median would have to be approved in collective bargaining.

This measure is similar to the House plan in allowing for plan design changes and joining the GIC, yet sets up a process that provides unions with a more structured framework. At the end of the day, the proposal gives unions a voice but not a veto over plan design changes, and requires that no more than 33% of the savings be shared with employees in the first year, compared to the House’s 20% level. Overall, the Senate plan targets the same $100 million reduction in health plan costs that the House embraced.

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Gingrich Withers on the Vine

Newt Gingrich’s presidential candidacy appears over before it even began, with howls of protest from Republicans over his comments on Meet the Press and new questions about large bills to Tiffany’s. Gingrich was forced to make a call of apology to Chairman Paul Ryan and make additional conference calls to conservatives to explain his Meet the Press comments. Ryan had earlier gone on the Laura Ingraham show and said “with allies like that who needs the left?” His disastrous start led Eric Cantor to speculate that Gingrich is finished. From Politico:

“Many have said now he’s finished,” Cantor said in a radio interview, stopping short of endorsing that analysis but calling Gingrich’s comments “a tremendous misspeak.”

Gingrich is refusing comment on reports that he has accumulated as much as $500,000 in debt to Tiffany’s, saying that he did not want to engage in “gotcha politics.” Fox News was asking, but Newt was mum. I think it is fair to say that Gingrich is an early favorite to receive the Fix weekly award for the person having the worst week in Washington. His reception by conservative voters in Iowa only made a bad week worse. That video clip is attached.

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Governor Patrick on Health Care Cost Containment

Governor Patrick’s testimony before the Legislature on his ideas for health care cost containment. This issue, and Governor Patrick’s ideas on it, are being watched nationwide. I would venture to say that this may be the most important issue that Governor Patrick will tackle in his second term. There is plenty to talk about on this issue, and the stakeholders are doing plenty of talking. A truly complex issue that requires plenty of brain power and political fortitude, the Governor, in my opinion, is leading the debate in the right direction.

http://www.statehousenews.com/video/11-05-16gov/player-viral.swf

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Newt Against Right Wing Social Engineering

Newt Gingrich went on Meet the Press today and gave a qualified endorsement to the individual mandate, indicating that people need to take responsibility for paying for their own health care. He also rejected, in pretty stark terms, the proposal made by Rep. Paul Ryan to change Medicare to a “premium support” model.

“I don’t think right-wing social engineering is any more desirable than left-wing social engineering,” Gingrich said on NBC’s “Meet The Press.”

The former House speaker and candidate for the GOP presidential nomination called it “radical change” and “too big a jump.” Instead, he pushed for creating a system that allows people to pick other options than government-run coverage, so that they “voluntarily migrate to better outcomes, better solutions, better options.”

Newt was burned by the Clinton troops the last time he moved, as Speaker in 1995, to modify the Medicare program, suffering as Clinton launched an assault on that issue. He apparently does not wish to stick his hand in that fire again.

Newt is a deeply flawed candidate who lacks discipline, but I do believe he will bring some freewheeling debate to the Republican nominating process. We now await the arrival of Donald Trump to bring freewheeling to a new plateau!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

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Mitt Swims Against Republican Tide

Mitt Romney, seeking to extricate himself from conservative ire over his support for Massachusetts health care reform, gave a speech in Michigan to talk about that effort and what he sees as the differences with the federal health care effort supported by President Obama. Romney is stuck, amongst many things, on the individual mandate, which has become a source of bitter opposition to conservatives. In his speech Romney defended the individual mandate, pointing to the “free ride” that the pre-mandate system was providing. But his “friends” over at the Wall Street Journal editorial page beg to differ:

In the name of personal responsibility, Mr. Romney also introduced the individual mandate, first in the nation, requiring everyone to buy coverage or else pay a penalty. Free riders, he said, transferred their own costs to others, either through higher premiums or taxes. This is the same argument the Obama Administration is now using to justify the coercion of the individual mandate in the federal courts. Because the states have police powers under the Constitution, Mr. Romney’s plan posed no legal problems. His blunder was his philosophy of government.

The people who don’t buy coverage though they can afford it aren’t really a major fiscal problem—unless the goal of the individual mandate is to force them to subsidize others. People who are priced out of coverage require subsidies—so in practice the logic of the individual mandate is that it is a government mandate too. Entitlements automatically grow and grow, and then the political class begins to make decisions that used to be left to markets and individuals.

Mitt sent a post speech letter to the Journal rebutting their claims.

One, the editorial asserts that people in Massachusetts who wouldn’t buy coverage, even though they could afford it, was not a major fiscal problem. But as a state we were spending almost $1 billion on free care for the uninsured. What we did was convert that money into premium support for those who needed help buying a policy, and require those uninsured who could afford to buy coverage to take personal responsibility for their own health care.

The Wall Street Journal editorial hits at another point that seems to bother Republicans about Romney, that he is more “management consultant” than a “principled conservative”.

Presidents lead by offering a vision for the country rooted in certain principles, not by promising a technocracy that runs on “data.” Mr. Romney’s highest principle seems to be faith in his own expertise.

Ouch! Romney at heart is a technocrat who believes that data crunching and deep analysis can solve problems, but that model has long been abandoned by the Republican Party (and in the last election cycle by Romney himself). When the “data” fail to corroborate Republican policy claims the rebuttal is that the Republicans will stand on principle, notwithstanding the data.

Romney’s tete-a-tete with the Journal editorial page did not stop with the editorial and rebuttal letter. The Journal felt compelled to write a second editorial slamming Romney for his “daredevil act.”

I understand and actually think it is commendable that Romney defend his actions as Governor (reportedly tired of being painted as a serial flip-flopper)but I am not so sure that having a major dust up with the Wall Street Journal editorial board is going to help him in the Republican nomination fight. It looks to me like Romney is still the smartest guy in the room on the Republican side, but adult management consultant types tend to be red-meat averse, not a winning trait these days for Republicans.

Romney has received plenty of media coverage, including some favorable words from the Globe:

When discussing his Massachusetts plan, and later outlining his ideas on how to bring market forces to bear on health care costs, Romney offered realistic assessments and some useful, pragmatic solutions: more group purchasing of insurance, the use of tax-free savings accounts to cover premiums, “alternative dispute resolution’’ rather than malpractice courts — all are smart proposals that could do some measurable good.

At those moments, one could see the gifted businessman at work. If Romney were free to use his incisive mind to craft pragmatic solutions to national problems, the country would benefit. He’s a talented public servant.

Romney also was piled on by Mike Huckabee, who seems to take delight in tormenting the Mittster. Governor Patrick joined in the hit parade, calling out Romney for trying to “have it both ways” on health care.

Romney has made an effort, but he is still a Republican apostate on health care. His political strategy appears to be looking towards the general election, and not the Republican primary process. That is a gutsy call, but I am not so sure it will bring him the nomination. Those thirty second health care ads linking him to “socialized medicine” are certainly on the horizon, dead ahead!

http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1

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