Mired Down in Afghanistan

Posted on June 25, 2011 by billmanzi

The President gave his speech on Afghanistan, announcing that he was essentially winding down the “surge” that he had authorized a year or so ago. It appears to just about all that the President is splitting the policy difference, throwing a small bone to the anti-war crowd, but leaving enough military flexibility to avoid the charge that he will “lose” Afghanistan. Plenty of debate going on, with the McCain wing charging that the President is not committed to “victory” in Afghanistan. But what constitutes victory there? That seems to be a question that nobody has a cogent answer to.

It always appeared to me that the initial goal was the overthrow of the Taliban government that had allowed its country to be used as a base for terrorist operations against the United States, as well as the eviction of Al-Qaeda from Afghanistan, followed by a degrading of its operational terrorist capacity. Such a goal has been reached, but as appears to be typical we have experienced mission creep, with nation building in Afghanistan now a big part of the program. With the Taliban not willing to give up the fight, with tribal and geographic loyalties preventing consolidation of military gains without the permanent stationing of the American military there, our commitment for “victory” appears to be endless and financially draining. Calls for negotiations between all the parties may sound good, but I happen to agree with those who say that such negotiations would only be a prelude to a final military settlement once we left. From a military standpoint the balance of forces on the ground do not appear to favor our putative allies in Kabul. Such a final military reckoning, in our absence, would likely find the Taliban receiving military help from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, with the incumbents leaning on Iran and India.

At some point the natives must be able to militarily support themselves. A return to power of the Taliban, in even limited form, would not be a good thing. But the key for the U.S. is that no further hostile acts be launched against us from Afghan soil. We have achieved the limited goals that should have been the sole object of our initial mission. It is time to stop the madness and accelerate the timetable for the full withdrawal of U.S. forces.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

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Jon Joins the Party (Or did He?)

Posted on June 23, 2011 by billmanzi

Jon Huntsman officially joined the Party yesterday, declaring his intention to run for the Presidency as a Republican. In one of his first interviews to talk about electoral strategy Huntsman indicated that he would carve a path to the nomination by reliance on “independent” voters who would participate in “open” Republican primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Huntsman described his nomination scenario: “An aggressive approach to New Hampshire and South Carolina, cutting his wife loose in Florida, and crossing the finish line—I mean, I said that last part a little tongue-in-cheek,” Huntsman explained. “But when you look at open primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, I think it’s a wide open affair, I really do.”

Naturally the Huntsman campaign had to walk those remarks back pretty quickly, with old pro John Weaver telling Politico that the Huntsman campaign intends to do real well with Republican voters.

Later in the day, John Weaver, Huntsman’s chief strategist, sought to clarify the ex-governor’s intentions by saying: “We intend to do well, in New Hampshire and South Carolina and Florida, among Republicans – and every indication that we have, early on, is that we will do so. Now, the fact that a candidate can attract independent votes is a good indication that they can be more viable in a general election. And at the end of the day, this is about beating Barack Obama. But our goal is to do well – extremely well – among Republicans.”

I can imagine that the Huntsman position on cap and trade, which is now being “clarified” by the campaign, will be a huge hit with Republican voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Of course Huntsman can assuage those Republicans by repeating his view that the Obama stimulus was simply too small. From the Club for Growth:

Governor Huntsman also stated that “if I were in Congress, I probably would not have voted in favor because it didn’t have enough stimulus and probably wasn’t big enough to begin with.”

His strong support for TARP gives the Huntsman campaign the perfect trifecta for “doing well” with Republican primary voters.

Huntsman has probably received more press coverage than any other candidate polling at below 5% in recent times. He will skip Iowa, and concentrate on New Hampshire. If his campaign achieves the quality of his introductory video attached below I can see Huntsman easily breaking the four percent mark within the next few months. (Assuming that he spends a large amount of money). Governor Huntsman was warmly welcomed to the field by a video from Rick Santorum, highlighting the Huntsman refusal to sign an anti-abortion pledge. Welcome to the Party Jon.

Different from Jon 2012 on Vimeo.

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Republicans Split on Foreign Adventurism

Posted on June 22, 2011 by billmanzi

A pretty public split has occurred in the Republican Party over the proper role for the United States in the world, with the neo-con wing seeming to have some real issues with much of the comments from the Republican Presidential field, especially on Afghanistan. Mitt Romney, Michelle Bachmann and others seemed to indicate dwindling support for continuing to spend $2 billion a week in Afghanistan.
Senator John McCain has led the counterattack for the neo-con wing, accusing members of his own Party of being “isolationist”. McCain just got into a dust-up with Democratic Senator Joe Manchin on the Senate floor, lecturing Manchin on his need to understand history as Manchin asked why we can’t get infrastructure spending in the United States while we spend billions in Afghanistan.

Joe Scarborough has been an ardent critic of the neo-con interventionism, using his Morning Joe program to drive his criticism relentlessly. McCain’s references to Ronald Reagan as a model for his and the neo-con’s desire to invade or bomb multiple countries at once is either a deliberate and cynical misuse of Reagan’s name, or it displays a startling ignorance of history. From Scarborough’s Politico column:

It is laughable to suggest that any Republican who does not support being involved simultaneously in three hot wars is taking up the cause of the John Birch Society, turning their backs on internationalism and calling for bringing our troops home. Though you would never believe it listening to the former POW, there is a middle ground between McCain’s interventionism and Ron Paul’s isolationism.

And that is where most voters find themselves heading into the 2012 election. Some GOP candidates are finally getting that message.

American taxpayers are starting to ask the questions Manchin is asking. And McCain, for all of his bombastic nonsense, only advocates borrowing the money to support his desire for multiple invasions and bombing runs. The question I would have for him is if it is in our national interest to invade multiple countries at once why don’t you ask the American taxpayer for the money to pay for it all. The Libyan debacle is close to a billion dollars of borrowed money. Best comment of the night, in my opinion, came from Michelle Bachmann at the Republican debate: The United States has no “vital interest” in Libya. If Bachmann is wrong someone should explain what our “national interests” are in Libya. As far as Ronald Reagan goes his Defense Secretary, Cap Weinberger, promulgated the doctrine that governed U.S. engagement overseas.

The Reagan doctrine limited such events to a limited number of circumstances where the armed conflict is vital to American interests, where our objectives are clearly defined, where our commitment is full and overwhelming and where the war has public support.

Maybe John McCain needs to acquaint himself with the Reagan doctrine before he uses Reagan’s name as a justification for policies that are bankrupting the country and leading us into adventures that have no relationship to the national interest. President Obama talks about the Afghan war strategy tonight.

Read the Scarborough column here.

http://abcnews.go.com/assets/player/walt2.6/flash/SFP_Walt_2_65.swf

http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1

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Methuen Budget Message and Presentation

Posted on June 21, 2011 by billmanzi

I have attached my budget presentation below, along with my budget message to the Methuen City Council. Liberated some of the ideas from the slide show from Manager Lynch in Lowell. City Council meets in budget session tonight.

Dear Chairman Cronin:

Attached please find a copy of the FY 2012 budget. I have attached a Power Point presentation on the budget that highlights the six year budgetary trends that continue to present challenges to Methuen, as well as information on the FY2012 budget. Please allow me to highlight some of these trends.

Six Year Trends.

State Aid down over $900,000

The City Contribution to net school spending is up by over $4,300,000

Health Care Spending is up by over $5,400,000.

Pension Costs are up by over $2,400,000.

Vocational School Spending is up over $1,000,000.

Those budget drivers are instructive, for when you look at our utilization of levy during the six year period the problems inherent in municipal finance become apparent. Over the six year period our use of levy has grown by some $12,300,000. During that period we have had new growth of $5,600,000. That means that our levy utilization is $6,700,000. ($12 million less the new growth of $5.6 million.) When you then deduct health care, pension, and school spending you actually arrive at a negative number for levy growth. We have managed, through the years, to maintain services in light of that by utilization of one time revenues and by keeping a close lid on municipal spending. How close of a lid? Since 2009 municipal side spending has declined by over $6 million dollars.

As we arrive at the FY12 Budget we continue to hold the line on City side municipal spending. But the challenges to us are great. Before we begin the fiscal cycle our excess levy capacity balloons to approximately $6.2 million dollars. We have made a decision to utilize this capacity as a “reserve”, which has allowed us to lighten the tax load on residential taxpayers. But as the six year trend shows it is not possible to continue without some utilization of the levy. In this cycle we are faced with mandatory increases in the following areas. Methuen Public Schools net school spending will rise by about $500,000, while the Vocational School will also rise by $500,000. Employees are contractually entitled to a return of their givebacks of the last two years, which totals about $1.5 million dollars. Even with that the City has benefitted by virtue of using attrition and early retirement to reduce the city side head count, which reduced our giveback obligation by some $400,000.

As I have pointed out in my Power Point presentation the city side work force has been reduced by 10% over the last six years. In reducing headcount in this fashion we have avoided having to fund unemployment benefits, while maintaining core services. A couple of figures of note: Our Fire Department is down by ten firefighters, our Police force is down by two patrolman, with two more out on long term disability. Our DPW has been cut by about a million dollars since 2006. In this budget I have restored the Police Patrol contingent to that recommended by the Chief. On the Fire side I have recommended the addition of five firefighters over the existing level, which has been reduced by attrition and by early retirement. The choice we face is between replacing the retired firefighters or increasing the allocation for overtime. My recommended staffing level will leave us short of the request from Chief Buote, but will allow us to maintain adequate fire services to the residents of Methuen.

As my presentation to you will show the area that is left for scrutiny is the so called “other expenses” portion of the municipal budget, which amounts to about $1 million. Please keep in mind that these so called “other expenses” contain vehicle maintenance, expenses for fuel and heat, turnout gear for our firefighters, ambulance supplies, bullet-proof vests for our police officers, as well as ammunition to conduct firearms training. It is important to note that despite severe cuts on the municipal side we have managed to fund a snow removal budget of over $1.1 million with a City Council budgetary allocation of less than half of that amount. During my six years as Mayor we have continually funded snow removal in this way, artificially lowering the bottom line of the budget and then squeezing enough savings out of the municipal budget to cover the entire snow removal budget.

I will submit a Capital Improvement book under separate cover. That will require substantial additional conversation, as we are faced with a very large expense relating to upgrading radio equipment, as well as required investment in police patrol cars, fire ambulances, and other public safety and DPW equipment.

The laws of mathematics have put most municipalities into a real budgetary dilemma. As our fixed costs continue to rise, we, not wanting to adversely impact taxpayers, continue to prune the areas where we have that ability, the City side of government. But we also do not wish to cut services to our constituents. We rightfully fight for full services to our senior center, for recreation programs for our children and to ensure that we deliver vital public safety services to our citizens. But the laws of math will require some difficult decisions. Methuen has been managed with the bottom line in mind, including the funding of the Methuen High School project WITHIN the confines of Prop 2.5. With this budget we still leave levy capacity of over $2 million dollars while funding the services that are wanted and needed by our residents. I look forward to discussing this budget, as well as the upcoming Capital Improvement budget, which I hope to submit tomorrow.

fy_2012_municipal_budget-slides-autosaved

Posted in Methuen, Municipal Finance | Tagged | 1 Comment

Muni Health Care Reform in Doubt

Posted on June 19, 2011 by billmanzi

The Massachusetts Senate, via a late budget amendment, has added a provision dealing with retiree health care that would negate a large portion of prospective savings that their original bill provided. The Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, (thank you Michael Widmer) has released a detailed analysis of the Senate version of muni health care reform, which I have attached below. I have excerpted a key portion here:

The Senate version would fall well short of the estimated $100 million in first-year savings for cities and towns because of the costs for increased retiree contributions. Since the $100 million in savings would grow dramatically over time, this shortfall in savings would increase commensurately as well.

By placing additional obligations on communities, the Senate amendment runs directly counter to the entire purpose of the municipal health reform legislation—to give municipalities greater flexibility to control their soaring health costs.

Municipalities urgently need to address their unaffordable retiree health care liabilities as described in the Foundation’s recent report, Retiree Health Care: The Brick That Broke Municipalities’ Backs. The Senate amendment flies in the face of that reality, adding to the burden for a substantial fraction of Massachusetts communities and limiting the ability of all cities and towns to address an obligation that is beyond the ability of local taxpayers to pay for without decimating basic services.

In tying retiree contributions to active employee contributions, which are negotiated through collective bargaining, the Senate amendment takes a huge step backwards by further constraining the ability of local officials to manage retiree health care liabilities.

The budget is now in a House-Senate conference Committee. The Legislature has come a very long way on this issue. At the local level we hope that the conferees opt for the original goal of saving that $100 million per year, so that we can provide services and save jobs. It would be a shame to stop short at this late point.

mtf_analysis_retiree_costs-1

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Massachusetts Mayors Endorse Setti Warren

Posted on June 19, 2011 by billmanzi

Eight Massachusetts Mayors have endorsed the candidacy of Newton Mayor Setti Warren for United States Senate. Mayor Warren is an outstanding candidate who understands the issues facing localities in Massachusetts. His resume and background, in my view, make him ideally suited for the job of Senator. Visit his website at www.settiwarren.com. Below is his press release on the endorsements.

Massachusetts Mayors Stand with Setti Warren

Newton, MA – Today, eight prominent mayors from around of the Commonwealth endorsed Setti Warren for U.S. Senate because they believe Mayor Warren best understands the challenges faced by their cities and towns and can best represent the interests of Massachusetts’ communities in the U.S. Senate. The mayors who have joined Setti’s campaign are:

Mayor Robert Dolan, Melrose

Mayor Mary Clare Higgins, Northampton

Mayor Thatcher Kezer, Amesbury

Mayor William Manzi, Methuen

Mayor Joe O’Brien, Worcester

Mayor James Ruberto, Pittsfield

Mayor Michael Tautznik, Easthampton

Mayor Lisa Wong, Fitchburg

Mayor Warren has dedicated his life to public service and has worked at all levels of government. He understands how effective and efficient government can positively impact our communities. In Newton, Mayor Warren saved the taxpayers eight million dollars over two tough budget cycles, while improving critical city services and making government more accountable to the residents. Setti is running for the U.S. Senate to bring the same type of leadership and common sense solutions to Washington.

“I am especially honored to receive the endorsement of so many of my colleagues and pledge that, if elected, I would be the strong federal partner they need,” said Mayor Warren. “Unfortunately, Scott Brown has not provided key leadership in the Senate. He has even voted against funding for police, firefighter, and teacher jobs in Massachusetts. As a U.S. Senator, I would work hard to bring critical investment dollars – in infrastructure, job creation, and education – to Massachusetts communities.”

Here is what some of the mayors endorsing Mayor Warren had to say about him and his candidacy:

“I know Mayor Warren well, and his record of results in Newton speaks for itself,” said Joe O’Brien, Mayor of Worcester. “As Chair of the U.S. Conference of Mayors Committee on Community Development and Housing, he has been a strong advocate for greater partnership between local and federal government and would be the type of dynamic leader that Massachusetts communities need in the United States Senate.”

Thatcher Kezer, Mayor of Amesbury, said: “As a mayor and former military leader, Setti Warren understands the needs of everyday citizens of Massachusetts and demonstrates the necessary skills to put into action the changes we need from the federal government to better serve the residents of the Commonwealth.”

“Mayor Warren recently visited Pittsfield, and I know that he is committed to the economic development needs of Western Massachusetts,” said James Ruberto, Mayor of Pittsfield. “As a Mayor, he has a unique understanding of the type of infrastructure investments we need to support local communities in Massachusetts.”

“I’m enthusiastic about Setti’s campaign, because he understands what we’re going through as mayors,” said Michael Tautznik, Mayor of Easthampton. “He would be a terrific Senator for the people of Massachusetts.”

“Setti is a strong new leader for Massachusetts,” said Mary Clare Higgins, Mayor of Northampton. “In Newton, he has delivered results for residents, and I am sure he can bring the same type of dynamic problem solving to the U.S. Senate.”

“Mayor Warren understands what Massachusetts communities need right now,” said Lisa Wong, Mayor of Fitchburg. “I am confident that in the U.S. Senate he would be focused on economic development and job creation for our state.”

“Setti recently visited Methuen, and I am excited about his candidacy,” said William Manzi, Mayor of Methuen. “He is the type of strong and straight forward leader that Massachusetts needs in the United States Senate.”

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The Gingrich Collapse

Posted on June 11, 2011 by billmanzi

The rather abrupt collapse of the Newt Gingrich candidacy this past week can’t be too much of a surprise in light of his problems as a candidate from day one, but it should offer lessons to candidates for office at all levels. Gingrich has had problems from day one, including a botched roll out, his disaster on Meet the Press, and now the mass resignations of his entire campaign staff. The collapse came much faster than even Newt detractors guessed it would, with the reports indicating a flawed candidate badly out of touch with what it takes to mount a credible campaign for President.

Gingrich, as he started the campaign, was known to all as a man lacking discipline. That lack of ability to stay on message was always considered to be a major potential liability. What was not readily apparent was Gingrich’s laziness as a campaigner. Nor was his unwillingness to commit to campaign fundamentals known to anyone, least of all his new Gingrich for President staff. Gingrich has rejected fundraising, leaving the campaign in financial tatters, unable to pay fees for voter lists and event entry in Iowa. He has rejected traditional campaigning, opting for a two week vacation cruise while his campaign stalled, refusing to commit to the ground game that had been the backbone of his own strategy. As he now prepares to soldier on Newt tells us that the campaign will not be built on a campaign devised by consultants. From the Washington Post:

“There is a fundamental strategic difference between the traditional consulting community and the kind of campaign I want to run,” Gingrich told reporters camped out Friday at his suburban Virginia house. “We’ll find out over the next year who’s right.”

Added Joseph DiSantis, one of his newly installed campaign spokesmen: “Going forward, we’re going to build a strategy around Newt, rather than fit Newt into a strategy.”

For all of you prospective candidates out there please learn from this imbecility. You have an egotistical candidate who does not wish to undertake campaign fundamentals, so he announces that the consulting community is wrong and he is right. The consulting community does not need defending here. Campaign strategies certainly can and do vary, and the consulting community has its fair share of strategists that have made serious errors in past campaigns. But the strategies being debated here are not subject to debate. You don’t go on a two week vacation in the middle of a campaign when you should be meeting voters and raising money to get out your message. You don’t refuse to do personal fundraising, and then spend campaign resources on charter flights when you cannot buy voter lists. Newt is one of those nightmare candidates who shuts off his ears when simple concepts he does not want to do are thrust upon him by consultants. It is not the consultants Newt. It is you. The end has not come formally, but it has come in reality. Goodbye Newt. After your formal withdrawal you will have plenty of time for shopping at Tiffany’s and extended cruises to Greece.

http://specials.washingtonpost.com/mv/embed/?title=Gingrich%20says%20he's%20still%20running&stillURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Frf%2Fimage_606w%2F2010-2019%2FWashingtonPost%2F2011%2F06%2F10%2FNational-Politics%2FVideos%2F06102011-55v%2F06102011-55v.jpg&flvURL=%2Fmedia%2F2011%2F06%2F10%2F06102011-55v.m4v&width=480&height=270&autoStart=0&clickThru=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2Fgingrich-says-hes-still-running%2F2011%2F06%2F10%2FAGIeoIPH_video.html

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Pawlenty on the Economy

Posted on June 9, 2011 by billmanzi

Tim Pawlenty gave a major speech on the economy this month in which he made some major proposals on tax cuts, the deficit, and economic growth. Pawlenty had the speech critiqued by the Fact Checker over at the Washington Post, who gave Pawlenty “two Pinocchios” for some of the economic assumptions underpinning his policy goals. In particular the idea that you could achieve five percent growth for a sustained period of time is not borne out by history.

Pawlenty’s goal of 5 percent annual growth in the gross domestic product strikes us as rather ambitious. He essentially admits this when he notes that Ronald Reagan achieved 4.9 percent growth between 1983 and 1987 and that Bill Clinton achieved 4.7 percent growth between 1996 and 1999. Both of those results came after recessions. Pawlenty, who proposes dramatic cuts in taxes, does not note that Clinton’s stellar economic performance was achieved even though he raised taxes on the wealthy.

Of course Pawlenty blames health care price escalation on President Obama’s health care reform effort, even though the law does not take full effect until 2014. Another Pawlenty article of faith is that even with the steep cuts he proposes to tax rates revenue will come in at 18% of GDP. On that score I say show me. Paul Ryan has struggled to answer that same question, and the stock answer seems to be that revenue will come in that way regardless of tax rates because it always has. Hmmmm. The Wall Street Journal editorial page generally liked the Pawlenty approach, but they are not afraid to show their true colors when it comes to deficit reduction.

More problematic is Mr. Pawlenty’s endorsement of a balanced budget amendment. Leave aside that changing the Constitution is (rightly) a very heavy political lift, and that short-term deficits can be useful, as in the 1980s to finance the defense buildup that helped to end the Cold War. The more fundamental problem is that a balanced budget rule can easily become an excuse to raise taxes, as it often has at the state level. Mr. Obama would gladly balance the budget at 24% of GDP, or more.

The Journal editorial page has always shunted aside deficit concerns in favor of tax cutting. They are also not afraid to call for huge spikes in certain federal spending that they feel important, as long as it is done with borrowed money. See the support for military spending cited above. The Journal’s editorial slant is the real Republican position, but those Republicans in Congress cannot be so upfront about their lack of real concern for deficit reduction. They advocate “deficit reduction”, but in reality it is not a true policy goal for them. More tax cuts hidden in deficit reduction packages that do not actually solve our debt problem is the real goal. Tim Pawlenty has decided to sell Republican primary voters what they want to here, rather than telling the truth. Read the Scott Lehigh column on Pawlenty’s proposals here.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibrary/assets/swf/CSPANPlayer.swf?pid=299911-1

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Rollins and Bachmann Take on Palin

Posted on June 8, 2011 by billmanzi

Republican campaign advisor Ed Rollins, freshly in place as chief strategist for Michelle Bachmann, used multiple talk show appearances to kick around Sarah Palin. From Politico:

“Sarah has not been serious over the last couple of years,” he said. “She got the vice presidential thing handed to her, she didn’t go to work in the sense of trying to gain more substance, she gave up her governorship.”

“Michele Bachmann and others [have] worked hard,” he said. “She has been a leader of the Tea Party which is a very important element here, she has been an attorney, she has done important things with family values.”

Rollins appears to feel the need to separate Bachmann from Palin, even in the absence of a Palin candidacy. I am not quite sure of the strategy, from Bachmann’s perspective, as she appears to be feeding from the same base. But what do I know? Pat Buchanan, on Morning Joe, expressed the same reservation about the Rollins comments. And pro-Palin blogs reacted:

Aides to Palin didn’t respond to inquiries about Rollins’ comments, but a writer on the blog that serves as her supporters’ main voice, Conservatives4Palin, demanded that the Minnesota congresswoman “either affirm her support for the long-time beltway fossil’s idiotic comments…or refudiate them.”

Such good sport! Rollins is rolling the dice, and with these two going at each other Mitt Romney just keeps raising money, building organization, and showing Republicans that he can be a serious competitor to President Obama. Mitt has got to love it. Another day goes by without someone asking him his position on Medicare.

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Methuen Health Care Deal Announced

Posted on June 7, 2011 by billmanzi

I was very happy to report a health care deal yesterday with Methuen’s Section 19 Coalition, which includes representatives of all city unions. It is a one year contract (FY12) which continues the substantial changes we enacted in Methuen in FY11. The contract continues our plan as local, and includes a premium increase of 4.6% for our employees. Retirees will see a decrease of 18% in their premiums. Additionally the City, through the strength of our program enacted last year, has offered on a one year basis a HRA that provides a 35% front end benefit for employees that will assist them in dealing with the much larger deductibles that this plan features. Methuen’s City Council ratified the plan last night. My thanks to Donna Gogas of the Methuen Teachers, Tim Sheehy from Methuen’s Firefighters, and all the other unions that participated in the negotiations. It is a good contract for both employee and taxpayer.

Posted in Methuen, Municipal Finance | Tagged , | 3 Comments