Deal of the Century!

Posted on August 2, 2011 by billmanzi

And so the debt ceiling crisis comes to an end, with both sides screaming bloody murder and claiming that all sorts of nastiness will flow from this agreement. Seems to me like much ado about nothing. Conservatives are crowing that they have imposed deep cuts and changed the direction of Washington, while the left has been screaming about the affront to the country from these draconian cuts. What a big pile of nonsense. The bill is essentially the McConnell plan on steroids, with the legislation allowing the ceding of Congressional authority to the President, who will gain a $400 billion dollar increase immediately, with the second installment of $500 billion subject to a vote of Congressional disapproval that the President can veto. That is McConnell, pure and simple. As far as the spending “cuts” that everybody is howling about they amount to $21 billion in FY12. And folks are screaming about that??? Hilarious. The budgetary caps imposed after FY12 apparently limit the growth from an assumed baseline, but do not cut nominal dollars. As far as the so called trigger mechanism for “enforcement” of additional cuts, as Senator Coburn so correctly points out in the attached video, these “rules” have been violated for years by Congress. Pay-go was routinely shredded by declaration of “emergency”.

The Democrats survive with no changes, today, to entitlement programs. This reluctance on the part of ALL involved to taking deficit reduction into the areas where the money is simply means that worthwhile discretionary programs may suffer some, but for now the real action on deficit reduction, spending, and taxing has been deferred. The debt ceiling, in my opinion, was not the right vehicle for solving the massive fiscal problems we face. But for now I am in agreement with Coburn. This deal does nothing like its critics say, and will be shredded pretty quickly when the time comes.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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What is the Agenda?

Posted on July 31, 2011 by billmanzi

Through most of the raise the debt ceiling debate I have been relentlessly critical of Republicans. They deserve harsh criticism for their conduct and false policy prescriptions. Their willful ignorance of real numbers, their false description of the potential outcomes of the policies they advocate, and the willingness to substitute sloganeering for real governing should bring them the criticism they so richly deserve. But what of the Democrats? Have they covered themselves in glory by being the anti-Republicans? How has the President performed? As a Democrat I think that they have performed poorly, and to say so is only to say the obvious.

What is the problem with the Democratic approach, and is there any merit to the criticisms made of the Democrats by the Republicans? The main talking point put forth by Republicans has been the lack of a “Democratic plan”. As the debt ceiling negotiations unfolded I agreed with the President that he should not commit his potential compromises to paper, since without an agreed framework the Republicans would simply take any concessions (on Medicare for example) and use them to politically insulate themselves from Democratic attacks as well as pushing the negotiations further in their direction. No framework, no paper. Where the Republican attacks have merit is on the lack of a Democratic budget (having Obama’s submission defeated 97-0 did not help) as well as a deficit reduction plan that people could take seriously. The Republicans put forth Ryan, and for all of its flaws it put down a marker. Where is the Democratic alternative, and the leadership needed to drive home Bowles-Simpson, or some more acceptable alternative? Where was the attempt to take the Gang of Six framework, and make it a vehicle that achieves things most sane people believe we need? What do we need? A credible deficit reduction package that recognizes, as Bowles-Simpson does, that you cannot begin austerity in year one, but must build into it. The Democrats are rightfully clamoring for tax code changes that would straighten out some of the inequities that exist, but does anybody take seriously the idea that every time a potential spending reduction is broached that Democrats answer that we should raise the rates on top earners to solve the problem? You can only spend that pot of money once, and it is a limited pot of money at that. Raising the top rates to Clinton/Reagan levels WILL NOT, solve our budget problems. What it would do is to show that all the pain in any restructuring would not be borne entirely by SS/Medicare/Medicaid recipients. What is needed, in my view, is a revamping of the tax code to produce additional revenue while lowering marginal rates. Simplification should be in the interests of all, Democrats and Republicans alike. Additional revenue attractive to Democrats, with marginal rate reductions very attractive to Republicans. That deal is available to Democrats, but it would require some risk taking and spending of capital. Has not happened.

A serious discussion on entitlements will necessarily involve some modifications that may be unpalatable on their face to Democrats. But to simply say that no problem exists, or to say no to any potential adjustments, (as they did to the relatively benign Simpson-Bowles recommendations) is to deny reality and to cede ground to Republicans. We must get serious, and if there is a set of Democratic policy prescriptions for deficit reduction, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security then maybe we should say what they are.

The last word is that Democrats would likely point to Republican antics on health care, and maybe say “why get serious when the Republicans are not at all interested in real solutions”? They would have a valid point. The treatment of the Obama health care plan, the Republican refusal to say how they would cover the uninsured, the Republican refusal to say what THEY ARE FOR, has served as the template for the Democratic response on entitlements. Despite that I believe that the Democrats have to stand for something on the deficit/entitlement debate. So far the debate is being carried by the Republicans, who stand for something. I believe the President is absolutely right when he says we need a “balanced approach” to deficit reduction. It is the only way forward that makes sense. But eventually details do matter. It is time for the Democrats to fill in the blanks.

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The Balanced Budget Amendment Fraud

Posted on July 30, 2011 by billmanzi

The Speaker finally managed to get a bill through the House yesterday, being forced to add language that would force a “balanced budget amendment” through Congress before a second, and necessary hike in the debt ceiling. Naturally the Senate rejected the Boehner bill in short order, and Boehner is about to return the favor by scheduling for vote, and defeat, the Reid bill. As has been the case from day one no bill will progress unless it has bipartisan support. Other than that this group will have caused lasting, and unnecessary damage to the American economy. But what about this balanced budget amendment? States, localities, and families have to balance their budgets! Why shouldn’t the federal government be forced to do so? And is it not hypocritical of people who claim to be deficit hawks to be opposed to a “balanced budget amendment”?

The “balanced budget amendment”, as filed by the Republican caucus in the House, calls for a mandatory balancing of the federal budget. The issue here is not a balanced budget. Quite obviously Congress is off kilter on that as we speak, with the federal government running annual deficits of over a trillion dollars. President Obama has been heavily criticized by Republicans for this debt, as they continue to try to make political gain by exploiting deficits they helped to create. Republicans point to these deficits as if they fell in out of the sky, with a big spending Barack Obama on a relentless drive to spend us into oblivion. So what is the truth?

1) Federal spending is at about 24% of GDP, a historic high (up from about 20% in 2007) So Obama must be guilty as charged? Well, as Paul Krugman points out on his blog, ratios have both numerators and denominators. With GDP growth slowed and spending on safety net programs increased due to recession, Krugman shows that the discretionary increases in spending essentially amount to the Obama stimulus, which likely added about one point of GDP spending. As Krugman shows clearly there has been no “spending binge” by Barack Obama. What about federal spending in nominal terms. Here is the breakdown, liberated from the Krugman blog:

2002: $2.0 trillion
2003: $2.2 trillion
2004: $2.3 trillion
2005: $2.5 trillion
2006: $2.7 trillion
2007: $2.7 trillion
2008: $3.0 trillion
2009: $3.5 trillion
2010: $3.5 trillion
2011: $3.8 trillion (budgeted)

So contrary to Republican claims there has not been a huge hike in spending under President Obama. But there has been a huge increase in the annual deficit. So Obama must be guilty of wanton and reckless deficit spending? Lets look at the second important figure.

2) Revenues are slightly below 15% of GDP, a historic low. The drop is due to the recession, and obviously to the tax policies promulgated by President Bush. The number, a drop in the historical number of between 18% and 20%, shows just what a line of nonsense Republicans are selling when they blame Obama for deficits, and keep repeating the mantra that you have a “spending problem” and not a “revenue problem”. You in reality have a spike in mandatory spending associated with Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, as well as spending on programs associated with the recession, such as unemployment insurance and food stamps. A good chunk of the Obama increase went to assist states and localities suffering from the impacts of the Great Recession. Despite that help State and Local governments have shed hundreds of thousands of jobs. Without the federal assistance states and localities, in many instances, would have lost much of their ability to provide services. But Republicans honestly like that prospect, since it fits with their goal to change some financially questionable practices of the states by vaporizing, rather than reforming, those governments.

So the Republican’s are attacking the deficit, and clamoring for a constitutional amendment. But no Republican I talk to can answer the following question. Why don’t the Republicans simply file a balanced budget? I realize that the Democrats would not vote for such budgets, but Democratic votes are not what is at issue. For Republicans I ask that question, and one other. Am I wrong when I represent that the much ballyhooed Paul Ryan budget has trillions in future deficit spending? If those questions can be answered then maybe I could understand the call for amending the constitution. What are the answers to those questions. Where is the balanced budget that Republicans say we need. WHERE IS THEIR PLAN?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Why Didn't We Think of That

Posted on July 28, 2011 by billmanzi

After all this debate about raising the debt ceiling, with all the potential for financial calamity, with all the political posturing and slings and arrows, it appears that we have all missed the boat. Rep. Paul Broun, House Republican, yesterday suggested what we have all been missing. The Debt Ceiling should actually be lowered, not raised. Yes that is the ticket.

On the other side of the Hill Senator John McCain took to the floor of the Senate to describe as “bizarro” the Republican notion that you could predicate a debt ceiling deal on the passage of a balanced budget amendment. Bizarro indeed. McCain stated the obvious, which is that people selling that concept are either ignorant or willfully deceiving people. Have to agree that McCain has that part of it right. What is achievable through this process, from a Republican perspective, has been twisted and bent into something that is unrecognizable. McCain’s tirade did not go without an answer from the Tea Party. From CNN.

Mark Meckler is co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots. He told CNN that many Americans support a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution – and “What Republicans should be doing is pushing all the way to the line.” As for McCain’s quoting the Wall Street Journal’s line about “tea party hobbits,” Meckler used his own Lord of the Rings metaphor to strike back at the senator.
“Clearly he’s been corrupted by the ring of power,” Meckler said.
Republican Sharron Angle, who lost her Nevada Senate bid against Democratic Sen. Harry Reid in 2010 with support from the tea part movement, praised the “hobbits” while taking a jab at McCain.
“As in the fable, it is the hobbits who are the heroes and save the land,” Angle said in a statement. “It is regrettable that a man seeking dialogue, action and cooperation for votes on the floor of the United States Senate has only one strategy to achieve that effort: name-calling. Nice.”

The Speaker will bring his plan to a floor vote today, and I must give him a bit of credit. He whipped the troops yesterday, telling them to “get their asses in line”, and he very well may have saved himself from a humiliating defeat at the hands of his own caucus. If he does succeed in the House then Harry Reid will have some decisions to make. But whatever those decisions may be I feel that Reid, McConnell, and Boehner have a tacit understanding on something. An amended Boehner bill that goes back to the House in different form may well push the House Republican caucus into another corner. The high stakes chess game continues. Has the game been rigged in advance?

http://embed.crooksandliars.com/v/MjEzMjUtNDgzMzc?color=C93033

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Fools on Parade

Posted on July 27, 2011 by billmanzi

The Republican House, acting like the Gang that couldn’t shoot straight, has produced a partisan bill to raise the debt ceiling, only to see the CBO score it as not cutting what it originally said, seeing House Republicans abandon their own Speaker’s bill,and seeing Republican Senators urging a no vote. Boehner, in light of united Democratic opposition, has had to pull his bill, leaving the entire House Republican effort in tatters. Boehner is now dealing with the same level of intransigence from his own caucus that Democrats have been facing in trying to cobble together a deal with him. As has been obvious for some time it is the House Republican caucus that is pushing this country towards default.

On top of Boehner’s problems within his caucus he is facing a rebellion from powerful outside Republican interest groups. The Club for Growth, and other groups, has come out strongly against the Boehner bill. Boehner’s political decision, which was to get a bill out of the House strictly on a partisan basis, has blown up in his face. If the Democratic caucus delivers zero votes for the Boehner approach, which is what Boehner would be delivering for Pelosi if the roles were reversed, then his approach is on life support. He must then deal with Pelosi and Steny Hoyer to produce a bill that can actually get 100-150 Democratic votes, and get a bill over to the Senate. Either that, or we are back to McConnell. Even the Wall Street Journal is frustrated with the Republican caucus.

Best of Luck Mr. Speaker.

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The Washington Two Step

Posted on July 25, 2011 by billmanzi

The Speaker (and his House Republican caucus) has unveiled his plan to raise the debt ceiling, which appears to be a two step process, with a trillion in authorization given now in return for about $1.2 trillion in discretionary spending reductions over ten years. The second authorization, to be given next year, would follow another legislative deficit commission (yes Republicans voted against a legislative deficit commission a short time ago) that would authorize another $1.6 trillion in increased ceiling authorization, while seeking entitlement reductions worth $1.8 trillion.

The Speaker announced that his plan was issued after bipartisan consultations, but I did not happen to catch any Democrats at his announcement. Maybe the Speaker has lined up sufficient Republican votes in the House to pass his partisan bill. But Democrats in the House ought to put that to the test. The Speaker should receive no Democratic support for his bill. In theory the Speaker should still be able to pass a bill. But if the bill was written in a partisan way then it ought to be passed that way. Does the Speaker have the votes in the Republican caucus? Democrats should make him produce that majority.

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The $400 Billion Question, Or Hastert's Revenge

Posted on July 23, 2011 by billmanzi

So the “large deal” debt talks have once again broken off in acrimony, with each side pointing fingers, leaving the United States perilously close to a sovereign debt default. So what happened? Republicans, led by Speaker Boehner, are accusing the President of “moving the goalposts” by insisting on an additional $400 billion in “revenues” beyond what the Speaker had agreed to, which was $800 billion. The Speaker and Republicans are saying that the President moved the revenue target after meeting with Congressional Democrats, who raised holy hell about the entitlement modifications, forcing the President to “move the goalposts” on taxes. Is that what happened? It looks to me like the Republicans might have a point on the later introduction of the $400 billion. Was it a cynical ploy on the President’s part, or were there other factors that contributed?

The President has responded by saying that the extra $400 billion was introduced, not as an ultimatum, but as part of an ongoing negotiation. In his presentation the President pointed to the fact that his revenue request was less than the number that the “gang of six” had presented in their plan. No doubt that there were other issues, such as what the penalties for Congressional non-action would be (triggers), but the main cited impediment by Republicans has been the additional $400 billion in taxes.

I have attached a clip of Lawrence O’Donnell crediting the President with snookering the Republicans by agreeing to deep spending cuts while attaching what he knew to be revenue targets that Speaker Boehner could not agree to. O’Donnell falls into the “move the goalpost” camp, crediting the President with “looking reasonable” while striving to derail any deal that contained real spending cuts. O’Donnell makes some sense, but I am not yet convinced. Certainly the Republican’s have entered negotiations with the President severely handicapped by the upfront restrictions on their position that they have publicly laid out. It is never a good idea as a negotiator to totally box yourself in and let the other side know the true parameters of what can be bargained. To do so is to give away much of your ability to bargain, and to test the willingness of the other side to move. The President has had a huge advantage over Boehner from the start, and that is the advantage O’Donnell thinks the President took advantage of. But could the President have had another reason to have requested another $400 billion in revenue?

It appears clear that Boehner, operating as the head of a caucus that has many members who want to see default, was going to have trouble producing enough Republican votes to push through an increase in the debt ceiling with $800 billion in new revenues. Without a doubt Boehner was going to have to rely on Nancy Pelosi to deliver a big bloc of Democratic votes for passage of the potential compromise. With Boehner seeing Republican support peeling away by the hour his reliance on the President and Pelosi certainly might have led the President to “move the goalposts” in order to get Boehner a bloc of Democrats in the House. You ask the President and Nancy Pelosi to deliver Democratic votes, and then you complain that they tell you what that might take? It was $400 billion, Mr. Speaker. No question that the Speaker was in a precarious position. If he helped push through a proposal that could not draw majority Republican support in the House, and passed with Democratic support making the difference he would have been under major siege politically from key Republican constituencies. So the Speaker has fallen back on the Denny Hastert formula, which says that a bill will not be moved to the floor without majority Republican support. But that caucus will not agree to anything that has compromise, with some saying that no bill raising the debt ceiling can be moved.

So to sum up the Speaker is in a tough spot, unable to move a bill through the House without major Democratic support. But he cannot agree to the deal that will draw that support, and has allowed his caucus to severely limit his room to maneuver. The President has him in a box. I do agree with O’Donnell that the President has easily bested Boehner and Cantor in this duel, with Republicans now staring out at the abyss. An abyss that they have created on their own.

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Methuen's Updated List of Candidates

Posted on July 23, 2011 by billmanzi

The list of municipal candidates, refreshed from my last posting. Below each office/candidate listing will be the list of those certified by the City Clerk as having submitted sufficient signatures to gain ballot access. Information includes those certified, and those who have returned papers and are awaiting certification.

Mayor
Al Dinuccio- Ken Willette- Steve Zanni-John Cronin
Certified: Al Dinuccio- Ken Willette- Steve Zanni
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: John Cronin

Councilor at Large (Elect Three)
Jennifer Kannan*- Michael Condon- Joyce Campagnone*- Dorothy Kalil
Certified: Michael Condon- Joyce Campagnone
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Jennifer Kannan

West District Councilor (Elect Two)
James Hajjar* -Sean Fountain -Jeanne Pappalardo*
Certified: James Hajjar-Sean Fountain

East District Councilor (Elect Two)
Joseph Leone- Ron Marsan-Patricia Uliano*- Tom Ciulla
Certified: Patricia Uliano-Ron Marsan

Central District Councilor (Elect Two)
David Lavalee- Fadi Chahine- Lisa Yarid Ferry- Jamie Atkinson-Joseph Lambert
Certified: James Atkinson
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Lisa Yarid Ferry

Methuen School Committee (Elect Six)
Robert Vogler*- Barbara Grondine*- Lynn Hajjar Kumm- Mary Jean Fawcett- Jeri-An Batal- Lorie Aliano- Paul Downing- Evan Chaisson*- Eunice Delice- Deborah Quinn- Mark Graziano
Certified: Robert Vogler*- Barbara Grondine*-Evan Chaisson*-Lynn Hajjar Kumm

Vocational School Committee (Elect Two)
Thomas Grondine*- Kenneth Henrick-DJ Deeb
Certified: Thomas Grondine*
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Kenneth Henrick

Methuen Housing Authority (Elect Two)
Robert Sheehan*- Joseph Leone- Kathleen Mulligan*
Cerified: None
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Robert Sheehan

Nevins Library Trustees (Elect Two)
Arthur Nicholson*- Josephine Napolitano*
Certified: Josephine Napolitano
Papers Returned, Awaiting Certification: Arthur Nicholson

* denotes incumbent
Italics indicate additions to the list from the last posting

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The Return of the Washington Six

Posted on July 20, 2011 by billmanzi

The news media, looking for any sign of breakthrough in debt ceiling talks, has managed to latch on to the much hyped return of the “Gang of Six”, with a new plan to achieve about $3.7 trillion in deficit reduction over ten years. While the Gang, with the return of Tom Coburn, has managed to generate lots of buzz about the potential for utilization of their “plan” as a way to get the debt ceiling raised and break the logjam, I would not be wagering all that much on the success of their effort.

The bi-partisan group has simply floated some new numbers, under a framework that has been loudly and consistently rejected by House Republicans. Since the Gang’s plan does include some new revenue I am at a loss to understand how it is different, as a framework, than what the President offered weeks ago. On top of that relatively simple fact we must add the negative attitudes of both Republican and Democratic leadership in the Senate towards the effort, and the plan. On that basis, and with the inability to get the framework converted to actual legislative language in anywhere near the necessary time-frame I think it is safe, for now, to not look to this proposal as one that will bring a deal forward.

So what is the way forward? The President has indicated he will veto a short term deal that does not address the long term problem. Whether even a framework can be agreed to in order to justify a signature on a short term extension is dubious in light of the stated position of the House. That leaves McConnell as the best alternative that is publicly on the table. There is plenty of talking going on, even private meetings between Speaker Boehner and Leader Pelosi. I am sure there is much we do not know about the deal potential, but it is critical that the nonsense stop here and now.

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Methuen High School AP Participation Soars

Posted on July 20, 2011 by billmanzi

Partnership with the Mass Math + Science Initiative produces big gains in
Advanced Placement* participation and performance.
METHUEN, MA – Methuen High School has made great gains on students’ Advanced Placement (AP) scores, largely as a result of its partnership with the Mass Math + Science Initiative (MMSI), according to information just released by the College Board. This partnership, which began in the 2009-2010 school year, has enabled the school to expand its AP course enrollments and has provided resources and professional development to support high-level teaching and learning.

From 2009 to 2011, Methuen has seen a staggering 273% increase in students participating in AP exams, along with an equally impressive 198% increase in the number of students earning qualifying scores. Prior to 2010, AP course participation for low-income and minority students in Methuen was quite low. This past year, 24.1% of Methuen’s AP exam participants were minority students, and 17.3% came from low-income families. In addition to calculus, statistics, biology, chemistry, physics, environmental science, and two AP English classes supported by MMSI, Methuen High also offers AP courses in Spanish, psychology, United States history, European history, and studio art. Increased participation and improved scores have been evident across the board.

AP courses are college-level classes taught in high school. Each course culminates with a May exam designed to measure each student’s mastery of the subject. Exams are graded on a scale of 1-5, with scores of 3, 4 and 5 considered passing or “qualifying” scores. More than 90 percent of four-year colleges in the United States and colleges in more than 60 other countries give students credit, advanced placement, or both on the basis of AP Exam scores.

“We’re thrilled with the AP achievement of our students,” said Jennifer Smith, Methuen’s Assistant Superintendent for Curriculum, Instruction, and Assessment. “We’ve almost tripled the number of students participating in Advanced Placement and have nearly doubled the number of qualifying scores. The MMSI initiative has given Methuen High so many resources and such high-quality professional development to support our teachers and students. It has been an extremely effective means of giving more students college-level learning experiences while they’re still in high school.”

MMSI expands access and improves outcomes in college-level courses, particularly among black, Hispanic, low-income, female, and other student groups under-represented by AP classes, in order to prepare them for highly skilled careers in STEM. The MMSI approach includes extensive teacher training and mentoring, Saturday study sessions and other academic supports for students, and privately-funded financial awards for teachers and students. Schools participating in the program sign performance agreements with MMSI, which include specific enrollment and achievement targets. 2010-2011 was Methuen High School’s second year in the program.

“These results demonstrate that with high quality training and support, students in Methuen and across Massachusetts can succeed in rigorous, college-level courses, setting them on a path to college and career success,” said Morton Orlov II, President of the Mass Math + Science Initiative. “Our students, particularly low-income and minority students, are meeting the challenge. The school district has demonstrated a commitment to excellence by partnering with MMSI, and Methuen’s teachers and students worked very hard for these impressive results – I congratulate them.”

MMSI, the largest statewide high school science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education program, now partners with 45 Massachusetts high schools. In its first three years, MMSI has increased AP math, science, and English enrollments in participating schools from about 4,000 to more than 8,000 today. From 2008 to 2010, MMSI schools nearly doubled their numbers of qualifying scores with a 96% increase. A 2011 Worcester Polytechnic Institute study showed that MMSI schools have made “significantly more progress” in closing AP participation and achievement gaps than non-MMSI Massachusetts high schools.

Information on total gains in qualifying scores across MMSI’s 45 partner schools will be released in September.

About Methuen High School
Located in northeast Massachusetts, Methuen High School has a total enrollment of just over 1800 students. About one-third of its students are minorities, and nearly 20% did not speak English as their first language. One-third of the school’s students come from low-income families. Methuen High’s AP program began in 1990-1991, with 26 students participating in two courses—calculus and English literature. In 2010-2011, 265 students participated in thirteen different Advanced Placement courses. More than 18% of the school’s most recent graduating class had scored a 3 or higher on at least one AP exam during their junior and senior years.

About MMSI
The Mass Math + Science Initiative (MMSI) drives a school culture of high expectations and dramatically increases participation and performance in Advanced Placement courses, particularly among underserved populations, to prepare students for college and career success in STEM. Led by Mass Insight Education in partnership with the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, the program was founded in 2007, when Massachusetts was one of six states selected by the National Math and Science Initiative (NMSI) to receive a privately funded grant to expand enrollment and performance in AP math, science and English courses. For more information, visit http://www.massinsight.org/mmsi.

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