A Tight Senate Race (For Today)

Public Policy has just released the first poll I have seen on the race between Ed Markey and Gabriel Gomez, and it shows a tight race. I discussed this race on air with WCAP morning host Ted Panos before I read this poll, and my predictions of a relatively easy Democratic win may need to be revisited. But the very close race has some underlying numbers that still show how difficult it will be for Gabriel Gomez to win this race. The numbers please.

The head to head match-up shows Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by a 44%-40% margin, tighter than many might have anticipated. Another piece of good news for Republicans is the Ed Markey favorable/unfavorable numbers, which are somewhat ominous for Markey, with 44% favorable, 41% unfavorable, and 15% undecided. That high unfavorable rating is an inviting target for Gomez, who could, with early money, try to drive it to the 50% mark. Gomez has a 41% favorable, with a 27% unfavorable, and 32% undecided. I think it would be expected that a 30 year veteran of elective politics would have a higher unfavorable number than a newcomer. How that changes will depend on the campaign, and each campaigns ability to invest early money to define the opposition.

Of course I must go where I always go, to the “independent” voter. In order for any Republican to win this race the margins with independents must be fairly large. Gomez currently leads with independents by a 47% to 31% margin. While the Public Policy narrative seems impressed with this, it is not enough of a margin. Gomez is also holding over 20% of Democrats, impressive and necessary for him if he is to have a chance at victory. But I remind that Scott Brown, in his race with Elizabeth Warren, held some Democratic support early in that race. A concerted, and expensive, effort was undertaken to separate Brown from that Democratic support. It worked. Look for some investment by the Markey campaign to bring those Democrats back home. Public Policy, in the press release, highlighted some of advantages they see for Ed Markey:

The good news for Markey in the poll beyond the obvious fact that he’s in the lead is that Barack Obama remains pretty popular in the state. He has a 53/41 approval rating. Obama was at only 44/43 when Brown won in 2010 and the President’s lack of popularity was a big contributor to the upset. He’s in a much better position this time around. The pool of undecided voters also sets up well for Markey- they voted for Obama by 18 points in November, 32% are liberals compared to only 25% who are conservatives, and 61% of them are women. Those are all demographics that ought to end up favorable to him in the end.

Some truth there, but it is not a Presidential election cycle, which is advantage Gomez. I still make Markey a 3-1 betting favorite, and as I said to Teddy Panos Gomez will require some major infusions of cash in order to overcome the Democratic home field advantage. And he will need it early, before the Markey financial edge manages to define him for the electorate.

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Interview- Rep. Marcos Devers on Lawrence Mayoral Run

State Representative Marcos Devers came on the Manzi in the Morning show to talk about his newly announced candidacy for Mayor of Lawrence, thoughts on incumbent Mayor William Lantigua, as well as public safety, local aid, and the budget. Rep. Devers has served as an interim Mayor, and would have to be considered a major player in this race. My thanks to the Rep. for taking the time to come on.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16978768

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New Hampshire Casinos? Interview with Jim Rubens.

Manzi in the Morning (Every Wednesday 980 am WCAP AT 10:00 AM) had Jim Rubens, Chairman of the Granite State Coalition Against Expanded Gambling on to discuss the potential for casino gaming in New Hampshire yesterday. Mr. Rubens has a strong anti-casino viewpoint, but comes at the issue armed with statistics and arguments that help to advance that position. In this segment we talked about the inclusion of casino licensing money in Governor Hassan’s budget, the size of the potential casino at Rockingham Park and whether that casino would be a true “destination” casino that would attract customers from outside New Hampshire, the “social costs” of gambling, and whether those costs would outweigh any potential tax revenues from casino gaming, and the types of jobs that a casino would bring to New Hampshire. Mr. Rubens also talked about the New Hampshire House budget, crafted by the Democratic majority, that omits the casino licensing money recommended by the Governor. Take a listen, as no matter what your thoughts on casinos you will be informed by the information provided. My thanks to Jim Rubens for taking the time to come on and give us his views. The website for his group is at www.noslots.com

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16978371

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Interview with Lawrence Mayoral Candidate James Patrick O'Donoghue

My interview, on the Manzi in the Morning Radio Program, on WCAP, 980 am, with Lawrence Mayoral candidate James Patrick O’Donoghue. We talked about transit oriented development for the City, the issues surrounding public safety funding for fire services, the municipal budget, and the Lawrence School system,as well as some other important issues. I am hoping to have Rep. Marcose Devers on my program next week, and of course hope I can get every candidate on to talk about the important issues facing the City. My thanks to James Patrick for his time, and his willingness to come on and exchange ideas.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16976282

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Lynch Markey WBZ Debate

The link to the Lynch-Markey debate, held last night, which was a bit more animated than the prior debates.

http://CBSBOS.images.worldnow.com/interface/js/WNVideo.js?rnd=262180;hostDomain=video.boston.cbslocal.com;playerWidth=385;playerHeight=288;isShowIcon=true;clipId=8799588;flvUri=;partnerclipid=;adTag=News;advertisingZone=CBS.BOSTON%252Fworldnowplayer;enableAds=true;landingPage=;islandingPageoverride=false;playerType=STANDARD_EMBEDDEDscript;controlsType=fixed

http://CBSBOS.images.worldnow.com/interface/js/WNVideo.js?rnd=443717;hostDomain=video.boston.cbslocal.com;playerWidth=385;playerHeight=288;isShowIcon=true;clipId=8799685;flvUri=;partnerclipid=;adTag=News;advertisingZone=CBS.BOSTON%252Fworldnowplayer;enableAds=true;landingPage=;islandingPageoverride=false;playerType=STANDARD_EMBEDDEDscript;controlsType=fixed

http://CBSBOS.images.worldnow.com/interface/js/WNVideo.js?rnd=262674;hostDomain=video.boston.cbslocal.com;playerWidth=385;playerHeight=288;isShowIcon=true;clipId=8799745;flvUri=;partnerclipid=;adTag=News;advertisingZone=CBS.BOSTON%252Fworldnowplayer;enableAds=true;landingPage=;islandingPageoverride=false;playerType=STANDARD_EMBEDDEDscript;controlsType=fixed

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A Difficult Week

I have managed to be flu-stricken for the past few days, as Boston, Massachusetts, and our Country endured a heinous act of terror. The despicable actions, and the truly heartbreaking personal losses, unify us in a bond that is unbreakable by terrorists, be they individuals, religious fanatics, or agents of a foreign organization. The press coverage has been thorough, and while certainly not perfect I think it is reflective of society wanting answers in minutes, and not hours.

Some observations:

The public safety response has been terrific in every sense. There will always be second guessing, but I think the coordinated response of local, state, and federal law enforcement has to get an A+. Most of the press will center on the Federal and State figures, and they deserve, in my opinion, top marks. But a special shout out to Watertown Police Chief Edward Deveau, who runs a relatively small police department, but came through as a true professional working in a Department undersized by manpower standards, but every bit as big in heart and effort as their federal, state, and Boston partners.

The FBI Agent in Charge in Boston, Richard DesLauriers, brought to me a sense of real confidence that this act of terrorism would be solved. It is a unique ability to instill confidence by demeanor, but DesLauriers certainly strikes me as someone who is a no nonsense professional. Top marks to the FBI for their cooperative methodology in working with Boston Commissioner Ed Davis, and the State Police and Colonel Tim Alben, as well as the Watertown P.D.

The size of the police contingent on patrol in Watertown was very small (four patrolman, one supervisor)on the night of the firefight. It is similar to so many cities in Massachusetts, where police manpower has been cut to adjust to new budgetary realities. It is not just a firefight with terrorists that can show manpower to be short on occasion, but everyday occurrences in cities the size of Watertown.

Being a police officer, regardless of jurisdiction, is still a dangerous profession. Richard Donohue, a Boston Transit Officer, is recovering from major injuries inflicted by gunfire, and Officer Sean Collier died at the hands of a terrorist ambush. Our hearts and prayers go out to their families, whose lives will never be the same.

There should be more correspondents like NBC’s Pete Williams, who gives the story he has, with no nonsense or hyperbole. A throwback correspondent in that he doesn’t bring “flair”, but just good reporting. That is contrasted with the media dead enders, who cannot help but to use a tragedy to put forth a political agenda, and actually try to sow discord at a time when unity should be the goal.

I was struck, as someone who looks through Facebook postings, at the extreme bitterness of some. There is indeed a big political divide in the country, and no tragedy will bridge political differences. But there will be plenty of time to criticize President Obama, or Governor Patrick, or others. I am amazed, and saddened, by political attacks designed to stoke division and hatred, be they from left or right, at a time when our nation is under attack. There will be some difficult questions asked, and they should be asked. But using this tragedy for political purposes strikes me as immature and self indulgent.

There has been much arguing over the “rights” of the captured accused. The arguing goes to show that some are not interested in facts, but rather prefer to use the issue to score some political points. U.S. law allows an “exception” based on public safety/national security, to the “Miranda” rule. Authorities are now utilizing that exception to question the suspect in order to secure information that may be immediately beneficial to the safety of the public, or the national security interests of the United States. The exception is narrowly drawn, and extremely finite in time. This exception will end soon, and the suspect will be tried in a civilian court according to U.S. law. The exception, in my opinion, is narrow enough to afford a potential defendant his constitutional rights, while allowing public safety personnel the ability, within the law, to protect the public. U.S. law does not allow a U.S. citizen to be held as an “enemy combatant”, or tried outside of the civilian court system, so the argument that the Obama Administration ought to proceed along those lines is simply uninformed.

This is a federal case, and unless there is some vital intel that can be traded, it should be a death penalty case. I realize that Massachusetts is a non-death penalty state, and some deference may be given to that. But this case extends beyond Massachusetts, with a sure message that actions of this type will be dealt with surely and swiftly. I have never been a death penalty advocate, but this case certainly is one where that penalty is not only appropriate, but in my opinion, necessary.

Boston is our city, and a community that takes great pride in itself, and in its most important commodity, its people. The bombing was a terrible tragedy, pointed at one of the days that Boston celebrates itself, an attempted knockout blow. But the people of Boston are simply too strong to be stopped, too resolute to lose faith, and they have a collective jaw of iron. Terror struck a horrible blow, but Boston will recover, prosper, and become stronger in the months and years to come.

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MBTA Cost Structure Called Into Question

The Pioneer Institute has put out a new policy paper, written by former Massachusetts Inspector General Greg Sullivan, that highlights the issue of higher than average labor costs contributing to the ongoing fiscal problems at the MBTA. Sullivan, who stepped down as I.G. after ten years at the helm, also highlights the ongoing procurement difficulties as the MBTA seeks competitive bids for its commuter rail service. Sullivan is uniquely positioned to talk about procurement, as the Office of the Inspector General deals with procurement issues throughout Massachusetts. Let us start with the procurement issue.

The MBTA does not run its commuter rail system, but outsources that service. The incumbent company is Massachusetts Bay Commuter Rail, Inc (MBCR). The MBTA just put this contract out to bid, and despite initial interest shown by over twenty firms ultimately only one bid (beyond the existing company) was received. This process has highlighted some of the ties that exist between the T and MBCR, which has caused some concern about the bidding process itself. Former Inspector General Sullivan, in his report, says:

In my previous 10-year service as state Inspector General, one of thestatutory functions of my office was to assure that the procurement ofpublic contracts was being conducted on a level playing field, with full and fair competition. These are the essential elements of project procurements that provide best value for taxpayers. The MBTA commuter rail contract is a case study for how not to generate competition for a large contract.

The difficulties associated with the necessary transfer of data from the existing company to all bidders has also created problems for the new bidder, as MBCR has refused to give data on labor costs and other critical data that is necessary for a company looking to enter a bid. I do believe that issue to be resolved, but that dispute lasted much longer than it needed to last, casting some doubt on the process itself.

It is especiallyconcerning that the information MBCR has yet to provide relates to labor expenses and benefits,which represent more than 70 percent of commuter rail system costs. It is also worth noting that that 10
gigabytes of data fits on a $14.99 USB flash drive.

Former Inspector General Sullivan does a good job laying out some of the perceived difficulties in procurement. Such an enormous contract, in terms of cost, should not be restricted to two bidders. More on that later, as we look at the three options for procurement that were examined by the Patrick Administration.

Former Inspector General Sullivan also highlights the labor cost disparity between MBTA workers, and state workers. He highlights some of those in the report, making the argument that this disparity costs the MBTA upwards of $50 million annually.(Mr. Sullivan quoted that number to me in a radio interview with him on this report)

The Patrick administration’s commuter rail procurement strategy deliberations about selecting a vendor had a lot to do with a big issue that is not being addressed in the ongoing transportation financing debate: how to bring excessive MBTA labor costs in line with those of regular state employees. Since 70 percent of the T’s costs are attributable to labor, addressing that issue head-on obviously represents one of the biggest and most essential opportunities for long-term cost containment. Even if compensation and benefit reforms only apply to new hires, the potential for long-term savings is significant.

The report gives some examples of the labor cost differential.

For example, painters for the MBTA make an average of $79,279 per year; painters in regular state government earn an average of $46,742, according to the Boston Herald’s “Your Tax Dollars at Work” on-line utility. MBTA customer service employees are paid between $53,854 and $61,110 per year; customer service employees for the Massachusetts Registry of Motor Vehicles are paid between $34,843 and $45,117. An assistant general counsel at the MBTA makes an average salary of approximately $85,000; at the Massachusetts Attorney General’s Office, Assistant Attorneys General earn an average salary of approximately $65,000.

The data cited certainly show a disparity, but a deeper study would need to be done to confirm the $50 million figure. Certainly the MBTA has had, over the years, substantially better benefits by way of health care and pensions, than standard state workers. It is not surprising that some of the pay scales are better as well. But with the MBTA running big annual deficits that are causing tax increases I can imagine that those disparities will be drawing more scrutiny.Pioneer promises more on this issue in a forthcoming report.

So back to the procurement on the commuter rail. The report identifies three options considered by the Patrick Administration.

The Patrick administration and the MBTA considered at least three options before deciding to re-bid the current commuter rail contract for another five-year term. One was to bring commuter rail operations in-house to be run by MBTA employees, which is how the other six largest commuter rail systems in the U.S. are operated. Some of those systems outsource elements of commuter rail operations, however, including maintenance and cleaning.
Another option was to procure an operator in a long-term public-private partnership of up to 30 years that would have included requirements for the operator to finance and carry out large-scale capital improvements. In light of the ongoing debate on Beacon Hill about the extent to which new tax dollars should be raised to finance MBTA capital improvements, this long-term public-private financing option, which would include purchase of replacement locomotives and coaches for our aging commuter rail fleet, is worthy of reconsideration. The final option, and the one the administration chose, was simply to seek an operator for another five-year term, deferring effective reform.

Pioneer obviously looks favorably on the long term option, as it could entail some mandatory capital expenditures by the vendor. As they point out, in light of the overwhelming capital needs of the system, that option certainly has some potential.

It does not appear to me that a procurement of this magnitude should proceed with only two bidders. Regardless of what you might think of the labor costs part of the Pioneer analysis their recommendations on this very large procurement seem quite sound, and designed to produce the greatest value for the taxpayers of Massachusetts. They recommend starting from scratch, and I do believe they are correct.

The MBTA should immediately halt the commuter rail procurement and start over using a process designed to maximize competition. Such a process would include making all pertinent labor cost information to bidders at the outset of the process;

The MBTA should conduct a survey of the 23 companies that submitted statements of interest to ascertain why they opted out of the bidding process; and

Any new transportation funding legislation should include an initiative designed to bring MBTA and commuter rail compensation in line with that of regular state employees.

The podcast of my interview with Greg Sullivan is below, and I thank him for taking the time to come on the show.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16974168

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Methuen City Council Chair Sean Fountain

I was happy to be able to pinch hit for Tom Duggan today on the “Paying Attention Radio Program” while Tom was emceeing the Greater Boston Tea Party event on the Boston Common today. And once it was known that Duggan was not going to be on the air we were able to get Methuen City Council Chair Sean Fountain to come on and talk about some issues in Methuen, including a recent Facebook posting by him on the issue of the four firefighters held hostage in Georgia, as well as the Solicitor Search, and the budget. My thanks to Council Chairman Sean Fountain for his coming on the show and answering the tough questions.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16972520

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Tom Duggan Interview

Valley Patriot Publisher Tom Duggan came on the Manzi in the Morning Show to talk about the new issue of the Valley Patriot, and to talk about some of the current disagreements that are roiling the Tea Party movement. The Mass Resistance folks have been heavily critical of those “other” Tea Party folks who are concerned only with “fiscal issues”, and the above link gives a pretty good idea of the type of criticism they are leveling. Duggan has responded with a Facebook posting, posted below, that responds to that criticism. He talks about those issues in this interview, which is worth a listen. Duggan will be the emcee at this Saturday’s Greater Boston Tea Party rally, which he also talks about. Thanks to Tom Duggan for coming on the show.

A piece of prose for my brethren in Tea Party Groups all over New England

I BELIEVE……

I BELIEVE… that the Greater Boston and the other chapters of tea parties in MA have a cancer that is growing.
I BELIEVE that cancer will turn the Tea Party into an irrelevant group of haters if it is not recognized and stopped
I BELIEVE… that the biggest threat to the Tea Party is not Obama or the Democrats, not the media or hollywood

I BELIEVE…the biggest threat to the Tea Party are the posers among us who fake outrage that others are RINOS or NEO CONS or just not conservative enough to: support for office, talk to in a coffee shop, speak at a Tea Party Rally, wave to in traffic.
Because… I BELIEVE… they are not conservatives at all

I BELIEVE… these posers are liberals in denial or just pretending to be conservative
I BELIEVE… these posers have revealed themselves at every turn through the WAY they discuss and argue

I BELIEVE…name calling, attacking people personally, labeling and stereotyping based on the group you belong to is something LIBERALS DO … NOT conservatives
I BELIEVE… these posers also have a track record of supporting Democrats and the Obama administration by sabotaging Republicans who oppose them
I BELIEVE… the proof is in their rhetoric on this very page

I BELIEVE… they helped to defeat RepublcanRichard Tisei and elect John Tierney, which ultimately helps advance the LIBERAL agenda.. .NOT the conservative agenda
I BELIEVE… they helped Elizabeth Warren Defeat Scott Brown which delighted ONLY the media, hollywood, liberals and the Democrat party….. OH yeah… and the so called RIGHT WING of the tea party that giggled with GLEE that the RINO Scott Brown was gone
I BELIEVE… those who took such glee are only in this movement to destroy it

I BELIEVE… from observing teh posers that they spend ALL their time attacking REPUBLICANS and other Tea Party members (sometimes personally) and spend almost NO time attacking liberal ideas
I BELIEVE… a few random posts don’t cut it as a defense to the above belief

I BELIEVE… that if we allow people to go unchallenged when they PRETEND to be conservatives especially when their every effort results in a win for DEMOCRATS AND LIBERALS …..we are doomed as a movement

I BELIEVE… those who cry about “censorship” when they are deleted on a discussion page (for stepping OVER the line)… and then endeavor to SILENCE speakers at a rally… do not sound like FREE SPEECH advocates or conservatives at ALL they sound like uninformed liberals

I BELIEVE… they are a cancer because they foster hate and create hostility among those who should be working TOGETHER… which DELIGHTS the media and liberals and Hollywood….

I BELIEVE… the Tea Party should hear from and listen to people with DIFFERENT views than we have, but on issues where we agree and can work together on after all…
I BELIEVE… we can’t ALWAYS be right about EVERYTHING

I BELIEVE… That the leadership of the Greater Boston Tea Party is going in the RIGHT direction by being willing to work with people on the other side of the aisle for a common goal (like Democrat Senator Katy Ives who is sponsoring and fighting for photos on ALL EBT cards)

I BELIEVE… that those who criticize this kind of progress because they are hung up on viewing political Adversaries as ENEMIES only damages the Tea Party ….almost beyond repair.

I BELIEVE… That if you are a congressman and your job is to pass a budget … and you DON’T… we shouldn’t PAY YOU!
I BELIEVE… there are groups like NO LABELS who are on the forefront of that fight.
I BELIEVE… whatever ELSE they are engaged in is irrelevant if they can educate us on the ISSUE
I BELIEVE… hearing what they have to say can only help us
I BELIEVE… it gives us a chance to see how other groups GET THINGS DONE because our record on that front isn’t very good!

I BELIEVE… that the more reasonable members of the Tea Party consist of 80% or more of the movement
and I BELIEVE… that majority agrees with most of what I believe … that there are no “enemies” only adversaries on ISSUES… that not ALL Democrats are “against us”, that working with people on the “other side” advances our agenda and gives us credibility, …. that Social issues only distract from our Tax Message and hand the media more ammunition to paint us as kooks …

And … I BELIEVE… that if you come to the Greater Boston Tea Party Rally on Saturday you will see an example of that

But make no mistake about it, the very vocal minority in this movement who are posers … are trying very hard to destroy this movement from within,
I BELIEVE… THEY are standing in the way of PROGRESS and GROWTH for the party
I BELIEVE… we have a chance of winning the war on taxes and big government.
I BELIEVE… we have a really good chance of winning the culture war with the media
I BELIEVE… the Tea Party can’t do that unless we marginalize the posers who use phrases like NEO CON and RINO because that only pushes people in the middle AWAY From us

I BELIEVE… The Tea Party is at a cross roads, it’s time to sink or swim, you can stand with the posers, circle the wagons and shoot IN… or you can help us work within the political system … sometimes across the aisle… to force REAL conservative fiscal legislation and expose waste adn fraud in our government.

BUT … I BELIEVE… it’s up to YOU!

See you Saturday.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16972114

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Rep. Diana DiZoglio on Taxes, Budgets

Rep. Diana DiZoglio came on “Manzi in the Morning” on WCAP today to talk about the Legislative tax package, and her vote against that package. Rep. DiZoglio talked about the impact that the tax changes would have had on her district, and her reasons for voting against the package. We also talked about the politics involved in the Governor’s threat to veto the legislative tax package, and what might happen after such a veto. Thank you to Rep. DiZoglio for taking the time to come on the show.

http://yourlisten.com/swf/Player.swf?id=16971686

Posted in Manzi in the Morning, Merrimack Valley Politics, Methuen, Municipal Finance, Transportation Finance, WCAP Podcast | Tagged , | Leave a comment