Senator John McCain and his supporters are making a big push in Pennsylvania, which stands just about alone as a tradionally blue state that may be in play. McCain has centered much of his hope on a win in PA that would help to balance out some potential losses in red states. The Washington Post details the big push by McCain in PA today.
During the last two weeks, thousands of volunteers such as White have flocked to Pennsylvania — the land of last resort for McCain’s campaign. Among staffers and volunteers working frantically in this state, the typical line of thought goes like this: If McCain can somehow score an upset in Pennsylvania, he will earn 21 electoral votes, compensate for potential losses in some traditionally Republican states and narrowly defeat Sen. Barack Obama for the presidency. On their T-shirts and hats, McCain volunteers reduce the strategy to a simple slogan: Twenty-one.
It’s the promise of twenty-one that persuaded McCain’s campaign to redirect so many of its efforts to Pennsylvania; that drew McCain and vice presidential nominee Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to the state for eight rallies this week alone; that compelled McCain to confess to a crowd in Hershey, “We need to win in Pennsylvania on November the 4th.”
Even with the push McCain has some high hurdles, including a big democratic edge in voter registration. But he pins some hope on conservative dems refusing to push the button for Obama, including those that voted for Hillary in the primary.
For the strategy to work, McCain will have to woo unprecedented support from registered Democrats, who outnumber Republicans by more than 1.2 million. His campaign helped launch more than a dozen Democrats for McCain groups across the state, and it bused in Democratic volunteers from New Jersey and New York. Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Lynn Forester de Rothschild, a top fundraiser for Clinton’s campaign, will spend several days speaking to Democrats on McCain’s behalf.
“I think Pennsylvania could be a big surprise to the conventional thought in the Democratic Party,” Rothschild said. “Pennsylvania is a conservative Democratic state, and John McCain can win it. We are targeting independents and Democrats, and they’re just not comfortable with Barack Obama’s plan for America, because it’s outside of the mainstream. This is the most important thing I’ve done in politics. The election could turn right here.”
The effort by McCain is showing some tangible results, with poll numbers showing a race that is tightening. Rasmussen now has McCain within four points in PA, erasing a double digit Obama lead. From Rasmussen:
In Pennsylvania, John McCain is getting closer, but Barack Obama is still attracting a majority of voters.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain picks up 47%. That four-point advantage for Obama is down from a seven-point margin earlier in the week and a 13-point advantage for Obama earlier in the month.
Just 75% of Pennsylvania Democrats now support their party’s nominee, down from 86% in the previous survey. Obama is doing a bit better among unaffiliated voters while Republican support for McCain remains steady (see crosstabs).
Democratic nominee John Kerry narrowly won Pennsylvania four years ago and both candidates have spent a lot of time here this past week. The Keystone State is the only state won by Kerry four years ago that is at all competitive in the final days of Election 2008. Although McCain is gaining in the state, this is the fourth consecutive poll to show Obama attracting more than 50% of the vote.
As McCain closes the gap Obama has stepped up his efforts as well, dispatching Bill Clinton and others to shore up this critical state.
Obama’s campaign has responded to McCain’s efforts by fortifying its own operation in Pennsylvania. Obama held a rally Tuesday in Chester, and his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., visited four cities last week. Less than 16 hours after a Palin rally in State College on Tuesday night, Bill Clinton took the same stage and spoke on Obama’s behalf.
“As unlikely as it is for them to succeed [in Pennsylvania], we’ve got to take that seriously, and we will,” said David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager.
A key battle, and although McCain is still behind he probably made the right call in folding his Michigan tent and deploying those additional resources in PA. Nobody on the Democratic side should be sipping champagne just yet.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/mmedia/player/wpniplayer_viral.swf?thisObj=fo278046&vid=103008-15v_title
Bill Manzi.com 