Chrysler Shuts Down Production One Month

Chrysler Corporation, in a move dictated by sales that are dropping off a cliff, has announced a one month shutdown of all 30 of its plants, extending the normal two week shutdown by two weeks. From the Washington Post:

Struggling U.S. automakers are launching a round of severe cutbacks as they wait for a government rescue, with Chrysler saying yesterday it will idle all 30 of its U.S. factories for one month.

Chrysler’s plants will furlough 46,000 workers beginning Friday, as a planned two-week holiday shutdown is extended to a month and possibly longer. The company, which has told Congress it needed $7 billion to survive the month, also told dealers that it may suspend financing for new cars in a bid to conserve cash.

“No one will return to work any earlier than Jan. 19,” Chrysler spokesperson Shawn Morgan said. “I don’t want to get into speculating about what may happen after that. . . . We’re going to continue to monitor the situation.”

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the GM-Chrysler merger talks have restarted, with Cerberus looking to give away parts of its equity in Chrysler as part of that deal. And the downturn has hit the foreign automakers hard as well.

Honda has cut its annual forecast and said it will trim global production by more than 300,000 vehicles. Toyota said earlier this week that it will halt construction of a plant to build the Prius in Mississippi as sales of the fuel-efficient gas-electric hybrids have sagged along with gas prices and the economy.

“This is not just the Big Three who are in trouble,” Virag said. “This is the entire U.S. auto industry, including domestic and transplants.”

If a deal is not cut with G.M or a finance package offered by the federal government I do not believe those Chrysler plants will open again. The month long furlough will impact 46,000 workers, who will receive unemployment benefits during that time.

As far as the potential for federal money Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is heading the government team from the Bush Administration that is dealing with the Big Three. I believe that the government will indeed come up with a finance package, and that as part of that package Chrysler will disappear, becoming a part of G.M. As the time grows short I believe you will see an announcement very shortly.

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Governor Patrick Unveils Federal Wish List

Governor Patrick yesterday met with the Massachusetts Congressional delegation, including the Fifth District Rep Niki Tsongas to discuss how Massachusetts may benefit from the upcoming stimulus package being talked about in Washington. Discussions have centered around having projects that are ready to go within a short time frame. The Governor put out a list, which is attached here, of projects that might be considered as part of the federal package. From the Boston Globe:

The list of projects, which is not ranked and may far exceed what the state ultimately receives, includes $1.3 billion to fix school buildings; $702 million for municipal projects, such as improvements to wastewater treatment plants and repairs to seawalls; $548 million for improving energy infrastructure, such as installing solar panels on municipal buildings and replacing state cars with hybrid models; $783 million for transportation projects; and $619 million for state-owned buildings.

The projects range from $400,000 for tunnel signs in Boston to $1.2 million to resurface Route 2 in Lincoln; from $500,000 to update the judiciary’s phone system to $18 million to renovate the library on the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth campus; from $18,118 for driveways and sidewalk improvements in West Bridgewater to $6 million to replace 20,000 trees that were removed because of Asian longhorn beetle infestation.

Since we do not know exactly what will be in the stimulus package it is a little early to start counting on any projects yet, but prudent policy requires this upfront planning. I am not sure what criteria were used to merit inclusion on this list beyond immediate impact. A lot more discussion needs to be had about what benefits will accrue to what municipalities. Congressman Ritchie Neal of Springfield had it right:

“There were many good projects across the state that were held up because of the Big Dig,” said US Representative Richard E. Neal, a Springfield Democrat. “Those of us who represent Central and Western Massachusetts wanted assurance that this would be an initiative that would treat the 351 cities and towns across the Commonwealth equally. . . . There’s a bigger state out there than Boston.”

Pretty good point Congressman Neal.

federal-stimulus

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JFK Talks about a daughter entering politics

A short film clip from 1957, in which then Senator John Kennedy, three days short of the birth of his daughter Caroline, talks about the potential for a son or daughter entering politics. He was pointed in insisting that a daughter should give the same consideration to public service as a son. As I look back on clips of JFK I find myself still marveling at his political skill and still feeling pride that a son of Massachusetts had such a great impact on our nation. I do not know if it is my still strong admiration for JFK that gets me so angry when I see cheap shots taken at his daughter Caroline, or if it is an aversion to cruel stupidity posing as political commentary. In any case it should be noted that we really do not know how Caroline stacks up, but she has every right to explore this potential appointment by the governor. And it has been pointed out by others that maybe the argument lies with the process of having the Governor make the appointment. But since that is the process it appears that the absolutely inconceivable notion that politics may play a role in the selection process has some in a panic. We are worried about Caroline Kennedy’s qualifications for membership in a body that has Saxby Chambliss as a member???? I am not so worried about it, but I am frankly perplexed as to the reasoning of some who deride her personally without even giving her a chance. If treating the daughter of President Kennedy and a person of stature in her own right with some measure of respect in the Democratic Party is akin to creating political nobility then mark me down as favoring nobility.

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The Globe on Transportation

Today’s Globe has another in what has become a series of editorials on transportation policy. Today’s editorial made some key points that are worth looking at.

The idea of “reform before revenue” will not solve the mess we are in. Reforms should and must take place, but without additional revenues this system will crash and burn.

But what seems smart to accountants looks like suicide to elected officials amid a recession. Legislators and the Patrick administration alike have taken to using the phrase “reform before revenue.” Well and good. But the situation is so dire that the discussion will have to proceed on multiple fronts at once.

The Globe editorial advocates on several fronts, advocating things that make sense but are still hard to achieve. Some of the points made: “Reform Wherever Possibe”, and “Stop Avoiding Hard Choices”. Lets just focus in on that avoiding hard choices and reform part of the editorial. The Globe specifically points to the retirement benefits over at the MBTA.

Simply merging one agency into another won’t make intractable problems go away. Current MBTA benefits make retiring after 23 years more attractive to many employees than continuing to work. Eliminating such perverse incentives would save $1.1 billion over 20 years, the state’s Transportation Finance Commission estimated last year. But doing so will require T officials, lawmakers, and Patrick to stand up to powerful unions.

Now that would be a reform that would make people think that the system was indeed going to change. Lets look at what the Massachusetts Transportation Finance Commission had to say on this subject.

One of the key cost drivers facing the MBTA is the very generous package of retirement benefits – both pensions and health care.Most pension plans allow an employee to retire at an earlier age, but with a reduced benefit.However, MBTA employees may retire and immediately collect full benefits after 23 years ofservice, regardless of their age. The result is that the MBTA may be carrying retirees, with full pensions, for three or four decades – in many cases longer than the employee actually paid into the system. In fact, the retirement benefits package makes it more attractive to retire early than to stay
employed. MBTA retirees are able to match the take-home pay of their most lucrative years
while they were still working because MBTA pensions are state tax-free. Furthermore, they
are eligible to receive Social Security with no offset from their pension payments. Over the
past three years about 10 percent of new (non-disability) retirees are under 50 years of age
and almost one-third are under 55.
Health care costs are a particular problem. The MBTA’s health care costs are 34 percent
higher than the median surveyed transit agency for single premiums and 44 percent higher
for family premiums. The combination of early retirement and 100 percent employer-paid
health care premiums for retirees with no co-pays puts enormous pressure on the MBTA’s
health care budget. It is striking that retirees account for almost half of the MBTA’s health
care costs, and even more striking that almost two-thirds of the MBTA’s retiree health care
costs are spent on retirees who are under age 65. These are the most expensive years to
cover – costs are escalating because of age, but the retirees are not yet eligible for
Medicare. It is critical for the MBTA to gain control over these escalating health care costs.

I realize that the focus is on the Turnpike, but the MBTA is also ready to implode. How do we ask for additional toll money, gas tax money, or fare increases at the T when this type of ridiculous benefit is not modified. It simply gives credence to those who oppose a reasonable effort to broadly solve our transportation problems by saying that all revenue increases are a giveaway to the public unions.

The Globe also advocates “no gimmicks” and “leveling with people”. What concepts! But the Globe neatly encapsulated what has put us in this mess to start with in looking to the future.

Many of today’s woes can be traced to conflict avoidance – underestimating the cost of the Big Dig; giving in to unrealistic demands by public employees; dealing with spiraling costs by deferring maintenance and borrowing more money.

And since we can no longer defer maintenance to avoid revealing the true cost of ownership to the public, and since we cannot borrow more money to defer true costs to the future, the day of reckoning is here and now. We all await the Governor’s plan, but the Globe editorial has it dead right. That plan should take some political risk, and not engage in kicking the can down the road, which is how we ended up here in the first place. Reform the system more than cosmetically, and then show the public what the true cost of ownership is. Anything less would be doomed to ultimate failure. Read the Globe editorial here.

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Salazar to Interior, Vilsack to Agriculture

President elect Barack Obama will name Colorado Senator Ken Salazar as Interior Secretary, and former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack as Secretary of Agriculture today. Vilsack, as Governor of corn producing Iowa, has been a big proponent of biofuels. Both he and Obama have supported taxpayer subsidy for ethanol, and that will be a major issue facing the new administration. From the New York Times:

“The big issue for him and any incoming secretary is going to be biofuels, that’s the sector that right now is in such a volatile position,” said Ken Cook, president of the Environmental Working Group, a nonprofit group that is a leading critic of federal farm subsidies. American farmers, Mr. Cook said, are “hitched to both the food system and the energy system, both of which are oscillating.”

Vilsack’s history would lead us to believe that it should be business as usual for the agriculture industry, with support for subsidizing ethanol, opposition through tariff duties to the importation of sugar ethanol from South America, and huge boondoggles through other farm bill subsidies. But Obama specifically pointed to the rampant abuses in farm bills as a likely source of savings as he examines the federal budget. What will it be?

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State Revenues Plunge

The State of Massachusetts, after making a big round of budget cuts because of rapidly declining tax revenue, is faced with a new shortfall, as revenue continues to plunge below even the new, lower estimates put out two months ago. From the Boston Globe:

State forecasters said yesterday that tax revenues will plunge by up to $750 million more, making it extremely likely that Governor Deval Patrick will be forced to cut state services again to balance the budget.

As the Governor prepares for a new round of cuts the fiscal calamity engulfing the State is moving into sharper focus:

The fiscal year 2009 state budget was initially built on estimates that $21.4 billion would come in. On Oct. 15, after national economic woes began hammering Massachusetts, top lawmakers and administration officials revised that figure to $20.3 billion. Yesterday was the first time state officials said the revenue estimate would go lower.

During an annual hearing yesterday to devise new revenue estimates, the Department of Revenue estimated that the state would take in $648 million to $749 million less than lawmakers had anticipated just two months ago. State officials are operating on two different tracks on the budget: trying to solve shortfalls for the current budget year, and creating revenue estimates to begin crafting the budget for fiscal year 2010.

Local aid was spared in the first round of cuts, but it is not likely to be spared if the Governor goes to round two. A mid year cut would be devastating, and lead to a decimation of local services throughout Massachusetts. If indeed that is to be the case then reform is needed now to give local mayors and managers the ability to deal with these fiscal issues decisively and quickly. The State needs to take the handcuffs off of local officials, and let us drive down our cost structure to match what we anticipate for revenue. More on that in a separate post later. January should be an interesting time for public policy in Massachusetts.

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The Bell Tolls for Secretary Cohen

Massachusetts Transportation Secretary Bernard Cohen resigned yesterday amid many rumors of his impending ouster. Governor Patrick accepted his resignation and issued a statement of thanks:

“Thanks to Secretary Cohen’s expert leadership, we have begun to reverse decades of neglect and are much closer to realizing our shared vision of a better, more efficient transportation system,” Patrick said.

“I am grateful to him for his wise counsel, his support and his dedicated service, both to me as a trusted member of my team and to the citizens of our Commonwealth.”

The Herald story announcing the resignation took a hard shot at the rumored successor, James Aloisi.

Horrified lawmakers and transportation officials were outraged that Patrick is considering Aloisi, who made millions as legal counsel for the Turnpike Authority and was behind tying the $15 billion Big Dig boondoggle to the agency.

“He’s a lingering ghost of Big Dig past, and he’s partly responsible for getting us in this mess in the first place,” said Sen. Robert Hedlund (R-Weymouth). “I can’t believe there’s nobody else out there capable of serving at this crucial time.”

January should be an interesting month for public policy in Massachusetts. Transportation will be at the top of that interesting public policy list.

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Arne Duncan to be named Education Secretary

The Washington Post is reporting that President elect Obama will name Chicago School Superintendent Arne Duncan as his Secretary of Education. Duncan will be named tommorow. From the Post:

President-elect Barack Obama will name Chicago public schools superintendent Arne Duncan as his secretary of education at a news conference tomorrow at a Chicago elementary school, a senior Democratic official said.

Duncan, 44, is chief executive of Chicago Public Schools, where he has steered one of the nation’s largest school districts since 2001. A graduate of Harvard University, Duncan was raised in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, not far from Obama’s home, and is a longtime friend and basketball partner of Obama’s. Duncan is a former director of Ariel Education Initiative, which creates educational opportunities for inner-city youth in Chicago’s South Side. He began working for Chicago Public Schools in 1998.

An important choice, as the battle between the reform wing of the Party and those comitted to the more “traditional” democratic views in education heats up. The group, Democrats for Education Reform issued a statement supporting the appointment:

DFER recommended Duncan to the Obama administration in their Education Transition Memo as a way to send a strong signal that education reform will be a priority for the administration NEW YORK, Dec. 15 /PRNewswire/ — In response to the widely reported selection of Arne Duncan to head the U.S. Department of Education in President-elect Obama’s administration, Democrats for Education Reform (DFER) championed the selection and urged the incoming secretary to make good on the promises Obama made while campaigning for the presidency. DFER was an early advocate of the selection of Duncan in the Education Transition Memo they released on November 11, because of his commitment to education reform ideas and his experience implementing reform in the Chicago Public Schools.

This group advocates policies that are not always in favor with the teachers unions:

DFER supports Democratic candidates committed to progressive ideas like greater mayoral accountability for schools; adjustments in teacher licensing requirements; changes to teacher compensation to reward our best educators; and a renewed focus on early childhood education (in particular, linking early childhood education with charter schools, which usually do not include Pre-K).

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Caroline Ready to Declare

The New York Times is reporting that Caroline Kennedy, who has been toying with declaring interest in the New York Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton, has decided to seek the seat. From the New York Times:

The decision came after a series of deeply personal and political conversations, in which Ms. Kennedy, whom friends describe as unflashy but determined, wrestled with whether to give up what has been a lifetime of avoiding the spotlight.

Ms. Kennedy will ask Gov. David A. Paterson of New York to consider her for the appointment, according to the person told of her decision. The governor was traveling to Utica today and could not immediately be reached for comment.

The Kennedy apparatus has begun to move, with RFK Jr. publicly urging Caroline to seek the seat. And Caroline has hired a big name political consulting company associated with New York Senator Chuck Schumer to advise her as she moves forward.

But since then, she has begun reaching out to key political figures in New York, including Sheldon Silver, the speaker of the State Assembly, and Thomas P. DiNapoli, the state comptroller. She has also hired Knickerbocker SKD, a prominent political consulting firm headed by Josh Isay, a former chief of staff to Senator Charles E. Schumer, to advise her.

Not everybody in Democratic political circles is for this move. Some pot shots were being taken at Caroline already.

Already, some other Democrats have pointedly questioned her credentials for the job. United States Representative Gary Ackerman, a Queens Democrat, said last week that he did not know what Ms. Kennedy’s qualifications were, “except that she has name recognition — but so does J. Lo.”

Governor Paterson is now in a tough spot. If he appoints Caroline does he buy himself a Democratic opponent named Andrew Cuomo, who is interested in the Senate seat but may run against Paterson for governor if he is bypassed here. An interesting dilemma. Can the Governor do some horse trading here? Oh wait! That might not be legal! He really is in a tough spot.

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M.B.T.A. heads towards insolvency

With the prospective toll hikes at the Pike taking all of our attention the dire financial condition of the M.B.T.A. has not received much attention lately. But we should all start paying attention, as the situation there goes from bad to worse. Yesterday’s Globe further detailed the woes, with sales tax revenue declining and debt payments gobbling up ever larger portions of the budget. From the Globe:

New financial setbacks and grim projections have observers inside and outside the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority worried about large fare increases and cuts in public transit service over the next 12 to 18 months. One watchdog says the agency is near bankruptcy.

The head of the MBTA advisory board estimates the agency’s deficit is on pace to hit $142 million in the 2009-2010 budget year, a year after budget managers depleted reserves and refinanced debt to stave off insolvency.

The sales tax decline impacts the MBTA because one penny of it is dedicated to the T. The decline may force Massachusetts to take $86 million in general tax revenue to bring the T back to last years level in the new budget. And even with that $86 million the T has court ordered pay increases, as well as other cost increases that will cripple its ability to even deliver todays level of services. Fare increases and service cutbacks loom on the horizon unless action is taken to relieve the MBTA of its crushing debt burden.

With all of this bad news the MBTA was looking to expand the Silver Line to the tune of about $1.5 billion dollars. The Federal Government refused to offer the requisite matching funds, as they do not believe the MBTA would be able to afford its share.

The Federal Transit Administration has also told state officials that the T’s finances are so poor that it will not qualify for federal matching money on its biggest expansion project – a $1.5 billion Silver Line bus tunnel – until it can prove the system can afford its share of the new project without short-changing bus, subway, and train service.

That project is gone, and should be gone until someone, somewhere explains how it will be funded. And it is more than a little disturbing that after the Big Dig planners would contemplate another project that requires tunneling under Boston and that serves Boston’s transport needs only. What about the rest of the State?

Michael Widmer called again for a comprehensive look at transportation.

“They’re effectively headed to bankruptcy, so they’re in desperate shape,” said Michael J. Widmer, president of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation and a member of that commission. “It makes no sense to deal with some major transportation reform and ignore the MBTA.”

Good advice Michael. Read the Globe story here.

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