Suffolk Poll on Governors Race

Suffolk pollster David Paleologos is roiling the political waters again, releasing a new Suffolk University poll that shows Governor Patrick leading a three man race for Governor, but with all the trends going in the wrong direction. Remarks made by Paleologos in the Herald paint a bleak picture for Governor Patrick:

“This race is really between Charlie Baker and Tim Cahill,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which conducted the poll. “Whoever emerges between the Baker-Cahill race is likely to be the winner.”

As for Patrick, Paleologos said, “On paper, he leads.”

Wow! I have attached the Suffolk data below. From the Suffolk press release:

Patrick (33 percent) still leads the tightening field, followed by Baker (25 percent), who edges out Independent candidate and State Treasurer Tim Cahill (23 percent). Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 3 percent, while 16 percent are undecided. In a November, 2009 poll, Patrick led Cahill 36 percent to 26 percent, while Baker, the former Harvard Pilgrim chief executive, was a distant third with only 15 percent.

“Charlie Baker has nearly doubled since the Scott Brown win,” said David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “Baker is where Brown was two weeks before the Senate election – he still trails, but he is surging and within striking distance.”

The Governor continues to show dismal job approval and favorability numbers, but has not yet relinquished the lead. Paleologos appears to expect that to happen shortly.

Read the Herald story here

Read the Suffolk Press Release here.

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The Legislative Delegation Visits Methuen S.C.

Methuen’s Legislative delegation visited the Methuen School Committee last week, and there are some interesting comments made, especially about the Governor’s filed budget. The delegation essentially ridiculed the Governor’s budget submission and said that locals ought to discard any thought that the Governor’s budget would become a reality. The video is in three parts.

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The Weather is Frightful

The winds and rain have caused some real hardship here in Methuen, with power outages continuing to cause problems throughout the Merrimack Valley. I participated in a conference call with National Grid yesterday and will participate in another this morning at 11:00 a.m. Methuen had over 1900 homes without power yesterday. but that number continues to drop. We opened a “warming center” at the Comprehensive Grammar School on Howe Street yesterday, and if anyone needs assistance over heat or any other issue please call our Fire Dispatch line at 978-983-8940. National Grid is restoring power as quickly as they can. We are monitoring problem areas for water and flood issues, and city crews are out clearing debris and trimming trees. I will report back after the National Grid conference call today.

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The President Talks Health Care and the Olympics

The President again spends his weekly address on health care and offering praise to our Olympic athletes. A health care bill is still considered to be a political underdog, but this President is really invested in getting something passed. One quick comment on the summit. I found Republican critics citing the President for being “condescending” in his presentation, yet they have not in print contradicted one of his “condescending” facts. Just one example was his factual slap down of Lamar Alexander’s claim that premiums would go up under the Democratic plan. Read the Krugman piece here.

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Paterson Bows Out in NY

The Governor of New York, after a series of stinging stories in the New York Times, has announced that he will not run for re-election. Governor Paterson, who took over the office upon the resignation of Eliot Spitzer, was finally brought down by stories indicating that he and staff had intervened in a domestic abuse case involving a top aide. Governor Paterson had lost support steadily, and had clashed with the White House and many other Democrats. His descent appeared to start with the botched political situation surrounding the naming of a successor to Hillary Clinton. Democrats now appear to be coalescing around Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who is in a great position to grab the Democratic nomination and face Republican Rick Lazio. Read the New York Times story here.

http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f8/1155201977

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Health Care Summit

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Municipal Relief Package Passes Without Health Care Reform

The legislature yesterday passed a Municipal Relief Package, which is outlined below. The package, predictably, did not contain “plan design” relief on health care for municipalities. There are some important pieces here, including the pension portion. But the most important piece has been left on the cutting room floor. The Boston Phoenix editorialized on the lack of the health care provision:

But municipal-employee unions don’t like the idea, so the legislature removed that provision before advancing the bill on Tuesday. The bill is a joke without it — which makes it a perfect piece of legislation for our laughable state government.

AN ACT RELATIVE TO MUNICIPAL RELIEF
SUMMARY

Regionalization Incentive: This would require executive agencies to encourage and prioritize grants for cities and towns that apply jointly and more efficiently utilize the funding

Transferring Eligible Municipal Retirees into Medicare: This section will reduce benefit costs for municipalities by requiring that all eligible retired local employees enroll in Medicare as their primary source of health insurance coverage, as is already done on the state level. Currently cities and towns have the option of doing this, but a large number of cities and towns have not done so. As a result, their retirees remain in the community’s health plan at considerable and unnecessary expense to local taxpayers.

Optional Early Retirement Program: This section includes an Early Retirement Incentive program for cities and towns. This program would allow a limited number of long term municipal employees to receive early retirement benefits, while restricting the town’s ability to refill those same positions to no more than 30%, 45%, and 60% of the former total salaries over the next three years, respectively. This program would be at the option of municipalities, giving cities and towns the flexibility to determine for themselves whether this tool is appropriate for their community.

Retirement System Funding Relief: This section proposes a pension funding relief plan to help local pension systems address unprecedented asset losses in a fiscally responsible and manageable way, without the significant increases in payments that would otherwise be required. Specifically, by allowing local systems to extend their funding schedule subject to certain conditions and requires that future asset gains be used to shorten schedules, not reduce payments.

Mutual Aid Agreements: This section would allow cities and towns to join statewide mutual aid agreements to provide police, fire, emergency medical, public works, and other public safety assistance to other municipalities. This would allow cities and towns to save money on staffing and equipment while still being prepared for emergency situations.

Collective Bargaining and Regional Entities This section provides that a municipal decision to enter into an intermunicipal agreement or join a regional entity shall not be subject to collective bargaining.

Mutual Aid Agreements Sections 43 and 44 allow cities, towns, and other governmental units in Massachusetts to join statewide mutual aid agreements to provide police, fire, emergency medical, public works, and other public safety assistance to other municipalities.

Support for School District Regionalization: This section includes provisions to facilitate regionalization of school districts by allowing regional school districts to join with municipal districts in a superintendency union, and streamlining the process to allow regional school districts to access their stabilization funds.

Collective Purchasing: Another idea to help participating communities to save money, this would allow education collaboratives to leverage economies of scale by entering into bulk purchasing agreements with public entities outside our state borders. It would also give cities, towns and school departments the ability to participate in cooperative purchasing agreements with public agencies outside of Massachusetts.

Municipal Electronic Billing: This section would allow cities and towns the option to establish an e-billing program, with the approval of selectmen or the mayor; would be able to include bills for other municipal charges (water, sewer, trash, light plant) in the same envelope or e-billing as the tax bill, as authorized by by-law or ordinance; however, bills from independent water and sewer commissions may be included in the by-law or ordinance only if approved by the commission

Renewable Energy Revolving Fund and Betterment Program: This section would allow municipalities to offer a loan program to property owners for renewable energy improvements. This would give towns interested in promoting energy conservation and green energy the legal mechanism to set up a revolving fund for this purpose.

Municipal Police Training and Motor Vehicle Inspection Fee Increase: This section would require a police officer or recruit who has a municipality pay for his/her basic training to remain in the service of that municipality’s police department for a minimum number of consecutive years, determined by the secretary of public safety and security; otherwise the officer or recruit is required to reimburse the municipality for the cost of the basic training, pro-rated, based upon the proportion of required service that the officer or recruit should have served; provided that the officer’s or recruit’s failure to serve the municipality’s police department for the required period was voluntary. This section would also raise the motor vehicle inspection fee by $6, which will be distributed to cities and towns for municipal police training and community policing; however, money distributed for basic police training is contingent upon a match of not less than $1 in municipal contributions for every $1 in state funding

Snow and Ice Removal Costs: This section would allow municipalities to amortize FY10 snow and ice removal costs over FY11 and FY12 (in equal payments or more rapidly).

Establish Commission to review Local Aid Formulas This section creates a commission charged with reviewing the general unrestricted local aid formula.

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The Jobs Bill Advances

The $18 billion dollar Jobs bill cleared the Senate yesterday, with Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown one of five Republicans voting to break a Republican filibuster. The bill contains some good news for Massachusetts and will attempt to spur some job creation through tax incentives. The Washington Post gave a quick summary:

The bill’s centerpiece is a $13 billion program allowing companies to avoid paying Social Security taxes for the remainder of 2010 on new hires who have been unemployed for at least 60 days. Employers would also receive a $1,000 tax credit for each new worker who stays on the job for at least a year. Democrats tout the plan as a simple way to create tens of thousands of new jobs, though some experts dismiss it as too narrow to make a significant dent in the nation’s unemployment rate.

Senator Brown gave his rationale for voting to break the filibuster:

He said he “came to Washington to be an independent voice, to put politics aside. . . . This Senate jobs bill is not perfect. I wish the tax cuts were deeper and broader, but I will vote for it because it contains measures that will help put people back to work.”

Harry Reid gets a political victory. Lets see what happens in the House.

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The President Goes Big

Yesterday the President unveiled his plan for health care reform, continuing a drive to make changes in the system and using recent massive premium increases as a political lever to drive that change. Many had expected the President to play small ball here, but the President has gone big, essentially using the Senate bill as a template for his proposal. He has modified the proposal with an eye to keeping House Democrats on the yes side of this question, changing the “Cadillac plan tax” as well as giving additional financial aid to the states. I have posted the President’s summary below, as well as the daily briefing yesterday by press secretary Robert Gibbs. The President challenged Republicans to post their “plan” for health care reform on the internet as the jockeying in advance of Thursday’s summit begins. The President left out the “public option”, sure to cause some discomfort on the left. Read the Washington Post comparison of the Obama plan with the Senate plan here. Is reconciliation in some form coming down the pike? And for those who say that health care costs are not exploding, or that folks are saying the “sky is falling” in order to pass a plan. From the Wall Street Journal:

On this point, politicians on both sides are indisputably correct. On a per capita basis, health care spending increased by a factor of six between 1965 and 2005, after adjusting for inflation.[7] In 2008, the latest year for which figures other than projections are available, total health care spending in the United States was $2.34 trillion (16.2 percent of GDP), up 4.4 percent from the $2.24 trillion spent the previous year. By contrast, in 1960, total health spending accounted for only 5.2 percent of GDP. Since then, health spending has more than tripled as a percentage of GDP.[8] The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that, if present trends continue, health care spending will account for 25 percent of GDP by 2025, 37 percent by 2050, and 49 percent by 2082.[9]

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Health Care Premiums Explode

A constant theme on this blog has been the sheer unsustainability of the current health care system. There is no question that the Democrats made some real mistakes in their efforts to enact reform, but recent news on the massive spikes in premiums in California and other states have brought the need for change back to the forefront. What is the Republican plan to stop this massive cost spiral in health care that is consuming our economy? I honestly haven’t heard one proposal that would even make a slight dent in it. Health care premium increases of the magnitude we are seeing will simply force more people into the ranks of the uninsured. And maybe that is where we are heading. The President spent his weekly address on the health premium problem this week. What are the Republican solutions?

Read the Washington Post piece here.

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