Suffolk in Nevada

The key battleground state of Nevada has new polling from Suffolk University in both the Presidential race and a key Senate race. David Paleologos will remain at the very top of the news cycle again with this key survey. The numbers please!

In the Presidential race President Obama clings to a narrow lead over Mitt Romney by a 47% to 45% margin, with a margin of error of 4.4%. Two independent candidates (Virgil Goode and Gary Johnson) are polling at 1%, making them a factor in this race. Paleologos has focused on geography, which shows Nevada with distinct pockets of strength for each candidate. From the Suffolk press release.

“After a strong debate performance, Mitt Romney is within striking distance of President Obama in Nevada,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “However, Obama’s big lead in Clark County – the state’s largest – has enabled his campaign to run up the score. In Washoe County, the results closely align with the statewide numbers.”

Obama led 50-42 in Clark County and 47-43 in Washoe County. However, in the remaining Nevada counties, Romney led 63 percent to 30 percent.

The geography is indeed critical, and in a race this close the respective ground games of the candidates will, in my opinion, decide the Nevada outcome. The President and his team will be driving turnout heavily where he has strength, and Mitt Romney will be trying to do the same. Whichever side wants it more will win Nevada.

President Obama has a favorable rating of 50% (45% unfavorable), while Mitt Romney has a 46% favorable (45% unfavorable). The President’s job approval rating is at 48% approval (48% disapprove).

The survey also asked for views on “ObamaCare”, and like many surveys the support for the program is on the upswing. When asked if this law was “good for Nevada” 45% said no, 44% said yes, and 11% were undecided. The issue is beginning to lose steam for Republicans, and if Democrats can accentuate the positive and popular aspects of the law they will be able to, in my opinion, drive support to it, especially with the elderly.

In the important Nevada U.S. Senate race Republican Dean Heller leads Democrat Shelley Berkeley by a 40% to 37% margin. That race features independent candidate David Lory VanderBeek, who has 7% of the vote, with 14% undecided. VanderBeek is a Ron Paul Libertarian, and he could tip this race to the Democrat. This is still wide open.

The poll asked about the Presidential debate, and 79% of the respondents had watched. Of those a whopping 74% thought Mitt Romney had won that debate, with only 19% thinking Barack Obama won, and 7% undecided.

As a final note Harry Reid was deeply underwater, with 49% having an unfavorable view of the Majority Leader, and 37% viewing him favorably. All I can say in response to that is thank God for Sharron Angle.

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