New Brown-Warren Polling, and the Mitt Romney Effect

The new Boston Globe survey on the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race came out today, showing the inexorable drift towards Elizabeth Warren that Suffolk had picked up a week or so ago. This drift comes in spite of voters having a favorable opinion of Scott Brown’s job performance. The survey please!

Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown by a 43% to 38% margin, with 18% still undecided. The poll margin of error was 4.4%. So the race is tight, with a big block of undecided holding the balance. Lifting the hood, in my opinion, shows the difficult road ahead for Brown. Brown leads among those voters who consider themselves “independent” by a 45% to 23% margin, which is simply not enough. This group has 18% undecided. Brown’s margin over Martha Coakley was substantially higher with independents, and in a Presidential election year he simply needs a bigger margin with independents. I discussed independents in this race, and the impact of Elizabeth Warren peeling away crossover votes from Scott Brown in an earlier post. How bad is the “Romney effect” for Scott Brown? The numbers don’t paint a pretty picture.

Obama voters support Elizabeth Warren by a 70% to 9% margin, with 20% undecided. For you folks wondering why Elizabeth Warren is doing her best to link Scott Brown with Mitt Romney and the Republican brand look no further. It is akin to throwing him an 800 pound anchor. As he looks to persuade the undecideds in his race he is looking at another ugly number, as those folks favor President Obama by a 67% to 7% margin.

The President leads his race with Mitt Romney in Massachusetts by a 57% to 30% margin, with 11% undecided. 27% is a whopping margin, and even if it narrows the dead weight of Mitt Romney is breaking Scott Brown’s back. Romney has a 60% unfavorable rating in Massachusetts, deeply underwater.

A little while back I happened to catch independent analyst Charlie Cook on Morning Joe, where he said (despite a Scott Brown lead in the polls) that Brown would have to peel off 300,000 Obama voters in order to win the race, and that we might wake up to an 8 point Warren win due to the makeup of the State. Cook seemed to be preparing the Brown supporters on the panel for the drift he knew was coming. Democrats should hold the celebrations, but if Warren can hold her own from this point forward I think the Obama tide will take Scott Brown out to sea.

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