A new UMass Lowell Public Opinion Center survey shows Senator Scott Brown in a dead heat with Elizabeth Warren in the U.S. Senate race coming next year. The survey also looked at the Democratic primary, and finds Elizabeth Warren alone at the top, beating all Democratic opponents by a wide margin.
The Democratic survey shows what you might expect. Elizabeth Warren leads with 36%, Tom Conroy has 5%, Marissa Defranco has 4%, Alan Khazei has 3%, Bob Massie has 3%, with 32% undecided. I guess with that bloc of undecided you could say there is some room to grow, but unless something dramatic happens this race is over. The candidates will be debating at UMass Lowell tonight, beginning at 7:00 p.m. It will be available on the Herald website, as well as the UMass Lowell website live.
The race between Brown and Warren is a dead heat, with Brown leading by a 41% to 38% margin. This race has a way to go, but some numbers are worth looking at. Brown, in his defeat of Martha Coakley, won the independent vote by a 66% to 34% margin. That type of margin is a virtual necessity for Republicans in Massachusetts to be successful. This poll shows Brown leading Warren among independents by a 48% to 29% margin. Brown’s campaign must drive that margin even higher, and he will be speaking to that group directly as he campaigns. Brown also does better with Democrats than Warren does with Republicans, winning 16% of the Democratic vote, while Warren manages only 6% of the Republicans. That number is reflective of Brown’s overall popularity. He is still in relatively good stead with the voters, although chinks in the armor are beginning to show. It is going to be an expensive and hard fought race, and at this point I make Scott Brown the slight underdog. But he has been the underdog before, and always seems to find a way to win.
Congratulations are in order for Chancellor Marty Meehan, who has managed to land the first debate on the Democratic side for UMass Lowell. The Chancellor has also created the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion, and has them in the news with this survey. The University has made tremendous strides under his leadership, with this news just the latest manifestation of success.
With a little luck the Republican Minority in the state will save themselves an automatic OBAMA yea vote.