Governor Deval Patrick has surged to a 7 point lead over Republican Charlie Baker in the latest Suffolk Poll, released yesterday. Patrick is at 46%, to 39% for Baker, and 10% for Tim Cahill. From the Suffolk press release:
“Deval Patrick’s lead is driven by some core levels of support,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “These core demographics – coupled with the perceptions that he has run the best campaign and has the best temperament to be governor – are driving forces as the governor’s race enters this final stretch.”
Patrick has, up to this point, clearly run the best campaign. He has been disciplined, exceedingly polite, and likable on the campaign trail. Baker, on the other hand, has come off as somewhat angry, a bit ill mannered, and I believe a much colder figure for the voters. His continued saga with Tim Cahill has proven to be a major distraction to his campaign, and if the polling turns out to be correct on election day his appearance with Paul Loscocco will turn out to be one of the major political gaffes in Massachusetts history.
In looking at the numbers a couple of things do jump out at you. The Governor is crushing Baker in what Paleologos calls “Worcester West”, leading Baker by 19%. Tim Murray has been great for the ticket, and the Governor’s investment of time in the West is now paying dividends. He is wiping him out in Suffolk County, leading by 55%. And Baker’s lead amongst independents, while at 16%, is being held down by Cahill, who still gets 14% of all independent voters.
Paleologos, on Channel 7, said that Deval Patrick is on the goal line, ready to score. He could still fumble, but right now it is his election to lose.