Obama Opens Wide Lead

A new Newsweek poll has Barack Obama opening a wide lead on John McCain. The Newsweek poll puts Obama up by fifteen points as well as giving him some other relatively good news. From Newsweek:

The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton’s victory over Bush’s father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of “change” by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.

Obama is also benefitting from the damaged Republican brand, as Democratic registration once again is substantially higher than Republican.

Obama’s current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP’s poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily. “Those results should give people pause,” Hugick says, saying that a substantial number of voters, about 5 percent, have also moved into the undecided column. A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq—an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the senator who championed the “surge” first—could alter the Republican’s fortunes.

While it is obviously very early and McCain’s fortunes could turn Obama’s huge fundraising edge will make a McCain resurgence all the more difficult. Is McCain begining to resemble Bob Dole to you? Read the Newsweek story here.

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1 Response to Obama Opens Wide Lead

  1. Jules Gordon says:

    Your Honor,

    I agree that the Republican party is damaged goods largely due to its abandonment of its conservative principles. It is what brought it to power in the last century after 40 years of Democratic party rule.

    Since then our political culture has changed. The American people now turn to government as an agent to resolve problems and succumb to pandering.

    The Republicans, lacking the fortitude to maintain their principles, became Demopubs, a creature of the worst of both worlds. Northeast Republicans in particular have been this “foot in both camps” creature, joining many times with the Democrats in passing damaging legislation.

    So now we stand ready for a new election cycle that seems to favor the Democrat’s gaining veto proof power.

    There is a light in this race which has six months to go. As you say things can change.

    Some observations.

    The numbers are confusing.

    The American congress has an approval rating BELOW George Bush. Both candidates are members of this poorly thought of institution. Why do they enjoy superior numbers? If they were that good, why have things got so bad. Remember, all legislation and budgets have to be approved by these legislators of low esteem.

    Lastly, the numbers bear truth to the philosophy that ” if you are 20 and not a liberal you have no heart, and if you are 40 and not a Conservative you have no brains”.

    The young seem to favor Obama, but will they vote?


    PS how’s our bet coming. You keep promising to publish the bill as presented, but all is quiet on the western front.


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