The Deal is Struck- No Offsets For All

The President announced tonight a deal on the extension of ALL of the Bush tax cuts with Republicans. The deal, predicted some time ago here, (November 6th) will extend for two years all of the Bush tax cuts while also extending unemployment benefits for thirteen months. Also included was a 2% employee payroll tax rollback for 2011, as well as continuation of the increases in the Earned Income Tax Credit, Child Credit, and the American Opportunity Tax Credit. Republicans won a continuation of the Estate Tax at 35% with a $5 million dollar exemption.

Both sides argued in the run up to this about which portions of the prospective deal should be “paid for” with budgetary offsets. They did what you would expect them to do. They paid for none of it.

The initial reaction from Democratic lawmakers was cool, with some real bitterness being shown at the terms of the deal. If by chance Obama cannot deliver Democratic votes for this deal then all hell will indeed break loose. The left wants to fight, figuring Obama has misplayed his hand. While I think that a deal was necessary I do believe that the Republicans got the better of the President here. But that is a story for another post.

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Republican Response and George Orwell

The Vice President was deployed for the weekly address this week, and talked about extension of the middle class tax cuts and the extension of unemployment benefits. He failed to mention any prospective deal on those subjects with Congressional Republicans. Pretty much straight pablum on budget and taxes.

The Republican address this week was by Illinois Senator Mark Kirk, talking about the need to “spend less, tax less, and borrow less.” I have included it here as one of the best examples of budgetary doublespeak available today. (Until the next Republican call for balanced budgets and massive tax cuts occurs). This type of nonsense would be hilarious if it were not so serious. Let us look at his “claims”.

1) “these leaders” (current Democratic Leadership) should not “raise taxes” and risk another recession. He claims that there is a plan to impose a “major tax hike” on the American people. In a vote that just occurred in the House of Representatives it was the Republicans in Congress who voted against giving tax relief to the vast majority of American taxpayers, not Democrats. A short couple of months ago incoming Speaker Boehner indicated that he would vote for tax relief for middle America even if it did not offer relief for the upper two percent. Now he calls it “chicken crap”.

2) “Our mounting debts pose a clear and present danger to our future”. Yes they do Senator. So what are the solutions offered to stop this “clear and present danger”? Lets get right to the big money: Earmark reform. Nice jab because many Senate Democrats did not embrace this reform. Many Republicans also oppose it, but in any case it is a half of one percent of total spending, not even a drop in the bucket. But it is important symbolically, and I agree it should be enacted. So after the symbolism what else did the spokesman for the Republicans talk about? ” A Line Item Veto for the President”. Again something that is needed and that will help, but it does not even scratch the surface, and has been opposed by appropriators from both parties. Of course Senator Kirk hit upon a treasure chest of money when his third suggestion, cutting Congressional budgets, was included. This gem would likely bring in a whopping one tenth of one percent. Of course he left the best for last.

3) In order to get “real reductions” in spending the Republicans will form a commission. In maybe the most hilarious part of this inanity, the Senator indicated that another “commission on federal spending” resembling the Reagan era Grace Commission be formed, with the ability to submit reductions to Congress that would have to be voted up or down. He failed to address the question of whether he or his colleagues supported the Deficit Commission report, whether he and his colleagues supported ANY specific reductions in spending besides the nonsense he put forward, or whether he and his colleagues are committed to take immediate steps to formulate a budget balancing regimen at any time. He failed to mention how he would pay for any of the tax cuts he advocates for, including $750 billion for top earners over the next ten years. He closed by bemoaning the fact that interest on the national debt may outstrip defense spending by 2016, but continues to advocate policies that will actually drive up interest costs by adding to the debt. Yesterday I speculated that the New York Times editorial board was drinking some pretty strong stuff. This guy must be at the same bar, because if this is what is going to pass as Republican budgetary policy we are in for a steep decline. Positively Orwellian.

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Bipartisan Agreement Reached: Continue Deficits

There is so much to talk about on the final report of the Deficit Commission, and so much posturing going on in Washington that it is almost impossible to get it all in one post. With the intersection of the potential deals on tax cuts, unemployment benefit extension, and the Deficit Commission, the double talk coming out of Washington is immense, even by Washington standards. It is quite apparent that the Commission plan will fail to attract 14 votes, which was the supposed goal to move it forward. It does look like a majority will support the plan. But it is intriguing that the opposition to the plan is quite bipartisan. On the left Andy Stern, a key Democratic player, and Democratic Rep.Jan Schakowsky have come out against the plan. On the right Rep. Paul Ryan, the incoming Chair of the House Budget Committee, and Rep. Dave Camp, the incoming Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, both came out against the plan. On both sides of the Commission the nominal reasons for rejection are reflective of, in my opinion, a high dose of political pipedreaming. I cannot say, in criticism, that some alternatives have not been offered. They have been. But they are truly, on both sides, not grounded in achievable reality. And they reflect some inner belief, in my opinion, that the crisis at hand can be solved principally along the preferred lines of left or right.

The editorial in yesterday’s New York Times shows that whatever those guys are drinking it is likely pretty strong stuff. From some initial support of the concept the Times has come out blazing against the Commission report, with much of their argument probably reflective of the opposition of the left.

The final report, for example, fails to call for significant near-term stimulus spending to counter the effect of deficit reduction. It also aims for an arbitrary — and dangerously low — spending target of 21 percent of the economy, a level that would make it impossible to meet coming challenges. In tax reform, it does not consider a value-added tax and a financial transactions tax.

The Commission favored lowering rates while eliminating a host of “tax expenditures”, some of which are popular. But they take a huge step forward in tax simplification. The Times apparently wants a VAT, not as a substitute for, but in addition to the current tax load. Absolutely a non-starter politically. As for their criticism of the 21% number it is also nothing short of ridiculous. Republicans are saying it is too high, Democrats too low. It must have some merit on that basis alone.

But the left does not stand alone in budgetary hypocrisy. The right proudly stands for the same type of double talk and nonsense. Rep. Ryan and Rep. Camp are full of it as well, starting with their insistence on extension of the Bush tax cuts without budgetary offsets. They are deficit hawks? But they do insist that unemployment benefits be paid for, at $12 billion. Unbelievable hypocrisy.

The Deficit Commission plan is certainly not a panacea, nor is it without serious flaws. But it recognizes the imperative of action, and makes a whole host of good and doable suggestions. And the insistence of both left and right that the plan reflect 90% of their priorities just means that no plan will advance. The very best opinion piece I have read on this came from Steve Pearlstein, who ridiculed both sides pretty effectively in the Washington Post:

The same dynamic is at work in the overheated criticism of the deficit reduction plan put forward by Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles, the chairmen of the soon-to-expire deficit commission. To hear it from liberal groups, you’d think the proposed spending limits would cut the federal government down to that of a small state, even as it “decimates” the middle class and forces seniors to eat dog food. From the right come similar hysterics about the “hollowing out” of the American military and the economic catastrophe that will befall us from a 15-cent-a-gallon hike in the gas tax.

Principle. As I mentioned yesterday it is easier to accept disagreement without the overt hypocrisy of constant doublespeak. And Republican Senator Tom Coburn, who came out in support of the plan, has principle. And that principle applies even when it requires him to swallow castor oil you know that he hates. Today’s clip should be contrasted with that, which will be posted later, of Rep. Camp, offering the same old nonsense on tax cuts and the budget.

As a final word the Deficit Commission plan which has created this firestorm, aims to cut the deficit by about $4 trillion in a decade. Simply letting ALL the tax cuts expire at some point saves $4 trillion over a decade. Hmmmm.

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Senator Scott Brown on Unemployment Benefits

Senator Scott Brown, under fire from Massachusetts Democrats over his stand on the extension of unemployment insurance benefits, took to You Tube to explain his position. And by goodness I find myself agreeing with the Senator on paying for the extension and not just adding another $12 billion to the national deficit. But then I think about his position on extension of the Bush tax cuts for top earners, which would add $750 BILLION to the national deficit, and I look for his insistence on paying for that through budgetary offsets. But that is not his position. He believes that you ought to add $750 billion to the deficit for a permanent extension of those tax cuts, but has drawn a line in the sand over this $12 billion for the unemployed.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s post it is time for the grown ups to take over the discussion, and get some real business done. The President and Democrats ought to agree to find offsets for this extension and move the bill and help people that need the assistance now. But the Republicans ought to man up and make specific proposals on how to fund the tax cuts for people making over $250,000. Since they are for cutting spending and reducing the size of government they should not be allowed to insist on offsets only for bills that they pick and choose. Going back to a strict pay-go system would force Washington pols of both parties to cut out the nonsense and act as responsible fiscal stewards. Senator Brown, you almost had me. But consistency in the application of principle shows all of us that the principle is deeply held, and not just a fig leaf. So far your position on this extension fails that test.

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On the Cusp of Dealmaking

The President and key Republican Congressional leaders met yesterday, and while concrete progress was not made on specifics there appeared to be some dialing back of the hostile rhetoric that has been abundant for some time now. Both sides have been maneuvering for position on key legislation, and I think the outlines of some deals have begun to take shape. What are they?

1) The extension of the Bush tax cuts. The very best deal Democrats will get is to “decouple” the tax cuts for the top tier from the tax cuts for everyone else. If the President manages to extend the top tier for a finite period of time while permanently extending the cuts for everyone else it would be a major coup, and Democrats should be willing to settle for that. Such a deal would bring howls of protest from right and left.

2) Extension of unemployment benefits. If a deal is struck on the tax cuts look for a quick deal on another extension of unemployment benefits, with some tip of the hat by Democrats to finding budgetary offsets to the cost of the extension.

3) The ratification, in the lame duck session, of the START treaty with Russia. This is a major issue for the President and the Country. It is also the area in which the Republicans are most easily moved by direct contact with the President. He has the right arguments on the Treaty, and the Republicans know it. But I believe that their opposition has been a “hold the Treaty hostage” action until progress is made on domestic issues that they have a concern over. If ratification occurs in the lame duck session then it will be a major victory for the President, and will enhance his prestige internationally. He cannot afford stalemate on this Treaty.

So the “new atmosphere” will be put to the test immediately. No question that the Republicans are in a much stronger position, but the Presidency has extraordinary powers to shape events if utilized properly. If both sides crash and burn on these items in the lame duck session you will necessarily have to have bitter recriminations and posturing, which will start the new session off real badly. Both sides need a deal. Will the grown ups step up to the plate?

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Republican Establishment Elites Pick on Sarah

The Republican establishment elites continue their assault on Sarah Palin, with rocket fire coming from Joe Scarborough, Peggy Noonan, and Charles Krauthammer. And Palin’s response, that she is as gifted as Ronald Reagan, who after all was only an actor, drew a stern rebuke from Noonan.

Conservatives talked a lot about Ronald Reagan this year, but they have to take him more to heart, because his example here is a guide. All this seemed lost last week on Sarah Palin, who called him, on Fox, “an actor.” She was defending her form of political celebrity—reality show, “Dancing With the Stars,” etc. This is how she did it: “Wasn’t Ronald Reagan an actor? Wasn’t he in ‘Bedtime for Bonzo,’ Bozo, something? Ronald Reagan was an actor.” Excuse me, but this was ignorant even for Mrs. Palin.

Ouch! But that was not all.

The point is not “He was a great man and you are a nincompoop,” though that is true.

A nincompoop? Peggy that may be true but people like yourself, from polite society, generally do not use terms like that.

Now Joe Scarborough does not come from as polite a society as Noonan, but his column in today’s Politico used some pretty harsh language as well.

Still, Palin is undeterred, charging ahead maniacally while declaring her intention to run for the top office in the land if “nobody else will.” Adding audacity to this dopey dream is that Palin can’t stop herself from taking swings at Republican giants. In the past month alone, she has mocked Ronald Reagan’s credentials, dismissed George H.W. and Barbara Bush as arrogant “blue bloods” and blamed George W. Bush for wrecking the economy.

Dopey dream? Maybe not so dopey Joe. The Republican establishment is afraid of Palin, and terrified that she may in fact have the horses to win the Republican nomination. But Palinism is a logical extension of what the Republican Party has become today. And that anti-intellectual, anti-credential strain of politics, which has been very successful for the mainstream Republican Party, has now mutated. The Republican Party is Dr. Frankenstein, and Sarah Palin is their creation. Best of luck to the Republicans in 2012.

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Methuen's Health Deficit Borrowing Bill

I have filed, and Methuen City Council has passed, a bill allowing borrowing for a deficit in our health care account for the last fiscal year. The Tribune wrote an editorial on it yesterday. There are some important points to be made, both generally and specifically in response to the Tribune editorial. Lets review the facts and then allow me to give you my perspective.

The request is to allow Methuen to borrow $1.9 million dollars to cover a deficit in the account that provides health care insurance for municipal employees. Methuen is “self insured”, meaning that we pay for employee health care from a pool of money derived from employee and taxpayer contributions. In Methuen the split is 62% taxpayer, 38% employee. Each year we estimate total usage and base our employee premiums and taxpayer contribution on that estimate.

So what happened? Employee plan utilization was higher than our original estimates, and based on that we closed the year with a deficit. Were there steps that could have been taken before year end to prevent the deficit? The answer to that is NO. And it is an important distinction that needs to be made here. An operating deficit generally means that there may have been some management culpability i.e the numbers were seen but no adjustments were made to correct the problem. With municipal health care no adjustments can be made under state law, even as we see the deficit coming. Let me cite an example: The State GIC, (I believe in the last fiscal cycle) saw a problem with their plan that was similar to Methuen’s problem. What they did was to make a mid-year plan adjustment to reflect the higher employee usage. This adjustment required a higher level of employee contribution and solved the fiscal issue faced by the GIC. The adjustments were made unilaterally, without any bargaining. Municipalities have no such rights, although we have been clamoring for them for some time. If we wanted to make such a plan adjustment it would have to be bargained. It was not possible to get the unions to agree to any mid year increase.

So what are the alternatives? The actual operating deficit is substantially higher than what we are seeking borrowing authority for. It is actually about $3.3 million. The City used taxpayer money to reduce that deficit by about $1.4 million. (A large portion of our percentage (62%) of the deficit) We have sought to borrow only the balance in order to avoid one of two things.

1) Putting the balance on the city tax levy, assigning the full brunt of the deficit to City taxpayers.

2) Putting the balance on the city tax levy and surcharging the employees for their share of the deficit, cutting the deficit but putting a big one year burden on our employees.

Our solution, to deficit borrow that balance, allows the deficit to be spread over three years, avoids a one year hit to taxpayers and employees, and becomes an obligation of the health care trust fund. It is the optimum solution in difficult circumstances.

With regards to the Tribune editorial I do believe that it is not without some merit, despite the criticism. Is deficit borrowing the best solution from a business perspective. The answer, in my opinion, is no. So I understand the angst expressed in the editorial. But they are not entirely correct either.

Is the message from the Statehouse now to be that poor fiscal planning and management will be rewarded by a state-sponsored cushion.

In this case there is not “poor fiscal planning” or “poor management”. The rules of the road need to be changed to allow managers to manage. And what has become of our recommendations for changes to the “health care rules of the road”? At the State level the requests for health care plan design authority for municipalities has been repeatedly ignored at the behest of municipal unions. At the local level I filed a Home Rule Petition, similar to one that passed in Lowell, that would give Methuen “plan design authority”. That Home Rule Petition, for the second time, has languished at City Council in the face of union opposition.

Finally it is important to note that regardless of estimates of usage we are obligated under Massachusetts law to pay as a City our percentage. If we made a higher estimate of utilization at the beginning of the fiscal cycle we would have been obligated to pay that amount and build it into the budget. We have proposed, and the City employees have accepted, a health care plan that dramatically increases employee costs in this fiscal cycle. Methuen employees are paying GIC style co-pays and deductibles while shouldering one of the largest overall percentage of health care costs in Massachusetts at 62-38. We are looking at overall system costs that are well below this years estimates in health care, and while it is too early to say if this will hold up for the entire year we are guardedly optimistic.

As a last note taxpayers should be aware that the health care fund has run in surplus in prior years, with a surplus of one million dollars a couple of years back that was disbursed to both employee and taxpayer. We have taken the strong management steps that are allowed by law to right the health care system in a way that is fair to both taxpayers and employees. Based on the facts I would say that any attempt to compare this request for a health care borrowing cannot be fairly made to a request to borrow for general government purposes, which the Tribune appears to want to do. It is also, as I point out above, not due to management or fiscal deficiencies in Methuen. Our fiscal condition, if this borrowing is allowed, will be amongst the very best in the Merrimack Valley, with money in reserve as well as a big amount of levy capacity under Prop 2.5. And that position is a direct result of strong management and extreme budgetary discipline.

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The Specter of Lieberman

Interesting story in Politico talking about the political future of Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman. I think they have caught this one dead on, as Lieberman now lives in political no mans land, with Democrats loathing him and Republicans looking for a “real” Republican to occupy that Senate seat. Even his independent party line has been hijacked by political forces hostile to Lieberman. Senator Lieberman managed to win re-election after losing the Democratic primary by virtue of the fact that the Republican Party sat still and nominated a deeply flawed candidate who got zero Party support. That will not happen again.

The story speculates on what appears to be Lieberman’s only option at this point, which is to run as a Republican. His prospects along those lines do not appear promising, as the Republicans would not likely nominate someone with a liberal voting record on domestic issues. Party hopping to preserve a political career did not work for Arlen Specter as a Democrat, and will not likely work for Lieberman as a Republican. What about running as an independent again? The poll numbers are not looking so good.

In the PPP poll, Lieberman failed to crack 20 percent of the vote in hypothetical three-way matchups that pitted him as an independent against both a Democrat and a Republican. His best showing was in a one-on-one race against Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy, though Lieberman was still described as an independent in the survey. The result: Murphy 47, Lieberman 33, with 20 percent undecided.

Ouch. It may have taken an additional six years, but the Democrats will likely knock Lieberman out of the box in 2012. And they will do it with Republican help. I guess Texas agitator Jim Hightower may have had Lieberman in mind when he said: “There is nothing in the middle of the road but yellow stripes and dead armadillos.” I think Joe Lieberman does not want to resemble that armadillo and will retire.

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Happy Birthday Jules Gordon

Yes, that is correct. That loquacious poster of conservative ideas, who is always there to pound some sense into me, has a birthday today. Happy Birthday Jules. Now on to verbal battle!

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Palin Inc.

Sarah Palin is front and center (again), being featured in this weeks New York Times magazine as well as being the subject of the latest Frank Rich column. Rich does, as you might expect, beat her up, but he also lays out the case for a potential Palin victory in the Republican race for the presidential nomination.

But logic doesn’t apply to Palin. What might bring down other politicians only seems to make her stronger: the malapropisms and gaffes, the cut-and-run half-term governorship, family scandals, shameless lying and rapacious self-merchandising. In an angry time when America’s experts and elites all seem to have failed, her amateurism and liabilities are badges of honor. She has turned fallibility into a formula for success.

Republican leaders who want to stop her, and they are legion, are utterly baffled about how to do so. Democrats, who gloat that she’s the Republicans’ problem, may be humoring themselves. When Palin told Barbara Walters last week that she believed she could beat Barack Obama in 2012, it wasn’t an idle boast. Should Michael Bloomberg decide to spend billions on a quixotic run as a third-party spoiler, all bets on Obama are off.

The discussion on Morning Joe seems to get a few talking heads into the position of agreeing with the Rich assessment. This woman is the real deal in many critical political respects, and underestimating her ability to show real strength with key Republican constituencies is a big mistake. If she runs she will wreak havoc with the Republicans. Her dismissive attitude towards the “old boy” network means that the Republicans run the risk of alienating a key part of their base if that base feels she hasn’t been treated fairly. If she runs it will be a real wild ride, although I still am of the belief that she cannot win the Republican nomination. But by goodness she will make it interesting.

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