Newton Mayor Setti Warren, after a very strong appearance, won the Methuen Democratic Committee straw poll this morning. Mayor Warren came early and left late, and gave a great talk to the assembled Democrats. Elizabeth Warren finished second to Mayor Warren in the balloting. Congratulations Mayor Warren, and thank you for taking the time to come to Methuen again.
I have endorsed Setti Warren in this race.
The Republican debate last night was quite entertaining, and gave a peek of what is to come in the next few months. Some observations:
Michelle Bachmann was invisible. Most analysis gives her low marks, not because of anything she said, but because she seemed to just not be a part of the flow. Some of that is attributable to the moderator bias to gravitate towards Perry/Romney, but she did nothing to get in the fight. For me she was the biggest loser of the night.
Mitt Romney did a very good job, in my opinion. The question is where are Republicans these days? Mitt is still running a general election campaign, offering Republican voters a more mainstream, buttoned down candidate who does not reject science, wants to save Social Security, and says that President Obama may be a fine person. Do the Republican primary voters prefer this approach? Or…
Rick Perry did a good job, in particular at the start, of mixing it up with Romney. But he savaged Social Security, offering no assurances to go with his denunciation of the program as a “ponzi scheme”. Perry badly fumbled the global warming question, showing an inability to articulate a coherent position. The question at issue was “has human activity contributed to global warming”? Perry wanted to talk about the fact that he disagrees with the solutions proposed by many Democrats to the problem, but that wasn’t the issue. The issue was simply the science. I think Perry’s answers, notwithstanding my own criticism, appeal to many Republicans. He gave a solid answer on the death penalty (audience cheering at the mention of the many Texas executions shows where the Republican primary voters are), and his advocating blunt language will also have Republican appeal.
Can Perry be a good general election candidate? Romney is going to be selling hard on the
electability issue. Will the Republican primary voter go with their heads, or hearts? It is a two man race here, with all due respect to the other candidates. Still intrigued by the media fascination with Jon Huntsman. He has gotten more media attention than any other candidate in history polling at 1% for months. When Herman Cain is trouncing you in the polls it is time to accept reality.
A new WBUR poll shows Senator Scott Brown leading all potential Democratic opponents, with newly minted candidate Elizabeth Warren closing to within nine points of Senator Brown. Brown led Elizabeth Warren by a 44% to 35% margin. The survey matched Brown against all of the prospective Democrats, with Brown not managing to break the 50% mark against any of them. In a match-up with Mayor Setti Warren Brown led by a 46% to 28% margin. Against Alan Khazei Brown led by a 45% to 30% margin, and against Bob Massie by 45% to 29%. I did not see any cross-tabs posted, but the name recognition numbers tell the story. Elizabeth Warren has not been heard of by 44%, Setti Warren 65%, Bob Massie 56%, and Alan Khazei 52%. All the Democrats, including Elizabeth Warren, have a long way to go in terms of basic name recognition. That will cost lots of money, and it better be done before the Scott Brown financial juggernaut has an opportunity to create the narrative against the nominee.
So it is early yet, and the poll is not all that valuable a tool. But the Party insider drumbeat for Elizabeth Warren gets louder by the minute. Her appearance at the big Labor breakfast as keynote speaker was warmly received, but had to be offensive to all of the other declared Democratic candidates for Senate. None of them were invited to speak, and the figleaf that Elizabeth Warren is not a declared candidate is just so much nonsense. The breakfast organizers should have been fairer to the other candidates, all of whom have been strong labor supporters. I guess that will just have to be sorted out during the upcoming campaign.
I have endorsed Mayor Setti Warren in this race.
The U.S. Post Office has been putting out the alarm bells, with the Postmaster holding out the prospect of the Service becoming insolvent and closing. The Post Office has seen sales drop by 22% over the past five years, with a corresponding inability to cut costs, reduce employee benefit expenses, or raise prices sufficiently to stop the hemorrhaging of cash. Postal contracts with labor prohibit layoffs, political pressure is applied when post offices are scheduled for closure, and the health and pension benefits for labor are quite generous. Despite the obvious need to slash costs, and maybe raise some prices beyond what the law currently allows Washington has made this into another prime example of their dysfunction and inability to make tough decisions. Solve the trillions in federal deficits? This group in Congress can’t even figure out how to solve a relatively simple business problem that faces the U.S. Postal Service. They give dysfunction a bad name.
So what do you need to do? Reduce costs, first by allowing additional job reductions that reflect the decrease in business. Don’t want to do that because you do not want to break the union contracts? Then pay!!!!!! Subsidize the costs of the additional unneeded workforce with federal tax dollars until you can reduce the force by attrition. But they don’t want to cut, and they don’t want to pay.
Allow the Post Office to change the health plans offered to employees to reflect the market. Don’t want to do that because you do not wish to offend the Postal Workers??? Then pay!!! Subsidize the portion of health care benefits above what the Post Office should be paying with federal tax dollars. But again, they don’t want to cut, and they don’t want to pay.
Reduce service. The Post Office wants to reduce delivery from six days a week to five days a week. But Congress does not want that either. The rural Senators have an objection: From the New York Times.
Senator Susan Collins of Maine, like many lawmakers from rural states, vigorously opposes ending Saturday delivery, which would trim only 2 percent from the agency’s budget. Ms. Collins, the ranking Republican on the committee overseeing the postal service, said the cutback would be tough on people in small towns who receive prescriptions and newspapers by mail.
“The postmaster general has focused on several approaches that I believe will be counterproductive,” she said. “They risk producing a death spiral where the postal service reduces service and drives away more customers.”
No service cuts Senator Collins? Then subsidize that two percent of budget with (yup) federal tax dollars? But again Congress does not want to cut, and they do not want to pay. Geez Senator Collins are we subsidizing the rural parts of the country with Post Office dollars? We do not wish to offer subsidies any longer, so either cut that service or pay.
The Post Office needs to be freed from the dysfunction of Congressional oversight. They have a business that could be making money, not losing it. The massive pre-payments for retiree health care are a huge burden for the Service, but are reflective of the costs that will eventually have to be borne. Better to recognize them now. Raiding the pension fund, which the Post Office believes is over-funded makes no sense either. The problem could be solved by a first year MBA class at any major university. Maybe Congress ought to give this issue to the MBA students at Wharton. They would produce a workable result long before Congress will. Read the New York Times story here. Read the Post Office White Paper on cost reduction here.
Today’s Tribune has a story about a proposal to lift the Mayor’s salary in Methuen to make it competitive with salaries paid to CEO’s in cities with similar populations and budgets. I filed this proposal on behalf of a group of Methuen business people who sent me a letter advocating for a higher salary in order to attract quality candidates to future Mayor’s races. Any proposed change would occur only after I left office, and would apply to the next, or future Mayors. That letter is below.
I do agree strongly with the sentiments expressed in the letter, and I do believe that with the salary structure in place it will be harder to attract top flight talent to the job in the future. Many, in an election cycle, will try to turn this into a political football. And they may well succeed. But the people sending the letter have vast experience in the private sector, as well as the public sector. They recognize that without strong leadership at the top the City of Methuen will not be well served. Private sector folks get it. And I can speak out on it now, since I am leaving office in January. Former Mayor DiZoglio is a member of this group, and his understanding of municipal government, and the things needed to be successful in administration, are second to none. I hope their letter spurs more debate, and provides the necessary impetus to get away from the demagoguery already taking place.
Dear Mayor Manzi:
For some of us Methuen is where we call home, for some of us it is where we make our living, for some of us it is where we bring up our children and for all of us it is where we pay our taxes. We care about Methuen and have donated time and money to make Methuen a great place to live and work. That is why we are advocating that we need to raise the salary of the Mayor.You may ask why we as taxpayer would be willing to pay more compensation to the leader of our Community. The answer is simple; “Methuen needs to fairly compensate the Mayor and recognize that it is worth paying more to get good, professional and effective government”.
Is it fair that the Mayor get paid less than other CEOs in communities with similar populations and demographics in Massachusetts? Is it fair the Mayor of Methuen is paid less than a significant number of other municipal employees? Common sense tells you NO.
Some will say it is not the time considering the budget demands. But we say that the response to that is “penny wise and pound foolish”. It is now time to make an investment in Methuen. We all make investments in our homes and in our business and in our families and it is now time to make an investment for us and the future of citizens of Methuen.
We are prepared to come forth during Council deliberation and express our support for an increase in the Mayor’s salary.
Sincerely,Mr. Bill Fitzgerald Mr. Rick Dewhurst Dr. Tom and Sandy Perrault
Mr. Ken Bourassa Mr. Dennis DiZoglio Mr. Richard Bonanno
Andy and Nancy Caracci Ms. Linda Soucy Mr. Bob Sheehan
Mr. Charles Perrault Mr. Arthur Broadhurst Ms. Pam Healy
Mr. Joe Cosgrove Mr. Arthur Hutton Ms. Barbara DeLuca
Ms. Nancy Curley Ms. Madelyn Varitimos
Certainly it is way too early for Mitt Romney to enter panic mode, but a new Magellan survey shows Rick Perry leading Romney in Nevada, which has been considered a Romney firewall. The survey has Perry ahead among likely voters by a 29% to 24% margin over Romney. Nobody else is even close, with Herman Cain at 7%, Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul at 6%, Newt at 5%, and once again Jon Huntsman making a big move at 1%. (Has there been a state where Huntsman has cracked the vaunted 4% mark?)
Romney’s strategy of setting up an early firewall of New Hampshire and Nevada, and then outlasting his opponents, has developed some major cracks. I anticipate that Perry will come back down a bit after a fuller media vetting of some of the policy ideas in his book, but those ideas likely will be more harmful in the general election than they will be in Republican primaries.
The numbers, as always, have some highly interesting items in the cross-tabs. Perry leads Romney by 12 points among men, and leads Romney by a whopping 20 points with those who identify themselves as Tea Party. Romney has a slight lead with female voters. So I guess Romney is the liberal in this race, and that is just not a good place to be in a Republican primary field. The warning sign is up on Romney. How will he respond?
With Congress looking at a hefty bill for Hurricane Irene relief the budgetary fighting has begun, with Minority Leader Cantor talking about imposing “pay-go” rules on such spending. From Politico:
But on Fox News earlier Monday, Cantor said, “There’s a federal role, yes we’re going to find the money, we’re just going to need to make sure that there are savings elsewhere to continue to do so.”
These spending principles are certain to run into political reality, as Irene could test the political viability of Republican orthodoxy as lawmakers try to weigh the emotional reaction to American communities in need while trying to stay true to their conservative fiscal ideals.
Under Republican notions of “pay-go” any such “disaster spending” would need to be offset by spending reductions elsewhere in the budget. And Cantor seems to be indicating that will be the case here. Under the original “pay-go” rules that were actually followed for a time in the 90’s any such spending would need to be offset by spending reductions or tax increases. That last part of the equation always made Republicans squirm, and the first part always made Democrats squirm. So in the interests of bipartisanship “pay-go” was eviscerated by declaring this type of spending an “emergency” and exempting it from pay-go. But once Congress got the flavor for emergency declarations they started declaring routine spending “emergencies”, including defense appropriations, and presto chango pay-go was gone in fact.
As a Mayor I believe that the federal government has an obligation to help municipalities and states deal with emergencies, and I hope that Irene will not be an exception. I do believe, however, that Congress should go back to pay-go, and strictly enforce its provisions. It would impose badly needed discipline on Congress, and force them to make tough choices. And the Republicans are going to have to make some tough choices here. They run the House. Lets see how they deal with all the damage done in the districts of Republicans in Congress.
I am very grateful to all those people who worked so hard this weekend to get us through Hurricane Irene. Emergency Management Director John Santoro, the Cert Volunteers, DPW Director Difiore and his team, and our Police and Fire Departments all worked around the clock to manage our storm response and keep our citizens safe. Thanks to a great team.
Bill Manzi.com 