The Iowa Fallout

Posted on January 4, 2012 by billmanzi

The Republican Caucuses were held last night in Iowa, and Mitt Romney eked out a victory over a surging Rick Santorum by the slightest of margins (8 total votes statewide). Now that is close. The fallout has been quick, with Governor Rick Perry “reassessing” his campaign, and Michelle Bachmann having a presser at 11:00 am this morning to likely do the same thing. Newt Gingrich gave a post-caucus speech in which he gave every indication that he is looking to torch Mitt Romney, and team up with Rick Santorum to do so if possible. Gingrich is making it clear that as far as Mitt Romney goes it is scorched earth from this day forward. He opened the festivities with a full page ad in the Manchester Union Leader attacking Romney on a score of issues (Reagan Conservative vs Massachusetts Moderate). If he had any real money Romney might have to worry. But I think that both Gingrich and now Santorum will be on the receiving end of more negative hits from the Mittster, who is not about to roll over because Gingrich is having a temper tantrum.

A new CNN NH survey showed why Speaker Gingrich is upset. Romney continues to lead there by a wide margin, polling at 47%, with Dr. Ron Paul second at 17%, and Jon Huntsman at 13%, Santorum at 10% (a 5% move) and Speaker Gingrich at 9% (a 3% decline). It is one thing to be down in the polls, but Gingrich has to be mortified that he actually is polling below Jon Huntsman, which is a huge indignity. New Hampshire polling, in my view, will show further gains for Santorum, but those gains will come at the expense of Huntsman and Gingrich, and maybe a little bit of shaving of the Romney number as well. I am more interested in the latest South Carolina numbers with the new field configuration, and I just can’t wait for the Republican debates coming soon. For now Romney achieved multiple goals in Iowa:

1) He stole a victory, even though he slightly mishandled the expectations game. When Romney saw opportunity he swept into Iowa, looking to deliver a knockout blow. He did not win a landslide, but he did achieve a victory that a few short weeks ago seemed improbable. Kudos to the Romney campaign team. Great execution.

2) His only real opponent, Newt Gingrich, is severely wounded. Rick Santorum has risen, but will not have the horsepower organizationally or financially to compete against Romney across the nation. He has been camped out in Iowa for the past year, and does not really have a national organization. Romney is picking them off one by one, in a most ruthless fashion. Santorum will now experience what Gingrich has been tasting, as the big guns of “Restore Our Future” set sights on him.

The Romney march continues.

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The Methuen High School Project

Posted on January 3, 2012 by billmanzi

The Methuen High School project has seen its construction schedule slip by a yet undetermined amount of time. This schedule slippage is due solely to the desire of myself, as the former Mayor, and the Building Committee, to hold the line on the construction budget. The facts involved in this delay point to a desire to protect the taxpayers of the City, and of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Let us start from the begining.

Methuen, in 2006, applied for funding from the Massachusetts School Building Authority, receiving approval immediately after the Commonwealth of Massachusetts lifted the moratorium on school building assistance. We were one of the first High Schools approved, having completed the process known as the “statement of interest” in 2006.

After approval Methuen constituted the “Building Committee”, which has been chaired superbly by Suzanne Lamoureux, who is an educator in Methuen, as well as an engineer who has worked in the construction field. The Building Committee selected the Owners Project Manager, which is required on Massachusetts Building projects with a total value of over $1.5 million. We then began the process. Our design team was selected by the Designer Selection panel of the Massachusetts School Building Authority, with some input from our Building Committee.

Our Building Committee determined that we would proceed with this process under a relatively new (to the public sector) process known as “Construction Manager at Risk”. The CM at Risk process brings on a Construction Manager substantially earlier in the process, on the theory that collaboration between CM, Design, and OPM teams will produce a construction process that has less problems, both financially and from a construction standpoint. This process requires the Construction Manager to provide to the City what is called a “Guaranteed Maximum Price”, or GMP, which would bind the Construction Manager to honor that price, and hence become “at risk”. This process is of course substantially different than “design, bid, build”, the standard for public construction in Massachusetts. Methuen received additional reimbursement points from the Massachusetts School Building Authority for the adoption of the CM at Risk methodology.

With the adoption of the CM-at Risk methodology and the hiring of the mentioned staff Methuen’s Building Committee went to work on design. Our project received a reimburesement rate of 68% after the completition of feasibility and schematic design. Our City entered into a Project Finance Agreement with the MSBA that codified this rate, as well as codifying the construction costs for this project based on schematic and preliminary drawings. That cost, for construction, was approximately $75.9 million.

The City, after a competitive selection process, picked Dimeo Construction of Providence to be the Construction Manager for this project last year. Dimeo was brought in with the design at 60% of completion. At that point, after review, the Construction Manager indicated that it was their view that the project, as drawn, could not be completed for the budget price. We apprised the MSBA of their view, and began the process of “value engineering’ on the project. The design team presented the Building Committee with options, which were adopted, which reduced project scope by over $6 million. We continued to work with the Design team and the Construction Manager to achieve budgetary balance, and we achieved budgetary reconciliation between the CM and the Design team at 90% of drawings. That is a critical point, and one that shows that the project, at 90% of drawings, had met our construction budget. Inexplicably, when the Construction Manager filed his GMP proposal it was over $6 million over the number, despite the reconciliation at 90%. At this point the City began to work with the CM, to understand the reason for the overage. These discussions led to a further reduction in the GMP proposal of over $1 million, but obviously it left us well over the construction budget. Without a further ability to reconcile with the Construction Manager the Building Committee severed its relationship with Dimeo Construction. So where does that leave us?

The Building Committee wisely determined that the project would be split into phases. Our contractual relationship with Dimeo was restricted to pre-construction services and the “enabling” work. Our contract allowed us to separate for convenience if agreement could not be reached on GMP. We have started and completed the enabling work. We completed the work on the Central School 9th grade campus on time and slightly under budget. So now we are faced with schedule slippage on the main project, but it should be clear: we are NOT over budget, nor is the project in disarray. We have stopped because of the differences with the Construction Manager over the budget.

So the City explores staying within the 149a process and hiring a new construction manager. If that is not possible the City will move to a 149 process, “design, bid, build.” That is what is being determined by the Building Committee. The main issue is the one identified by the Eagle Tribune in its editorial:

One serious question remains to be answered. That is whether Methuen officials are realistic in their expectation that the construction can be done for $75.9 million. An experienced construction firm would not agree to do it for that price. Will Methuen be able to find one that will?

It has been our belief, even after the GMP submission by Dimeo, that Methuen can hit that number. If additional value engineering is required to do so it has been the consensus opinion that the Building Committee would be supportive of such an effort. As we move forward it is now a matter of selecting the process (149a vs 149), selecting the new CM (if 149A), or preparing the documents for “design bid build” (149) if the City moves in that direction. This process is delayed, and the delay is unfortunate, but the building committee has made the prudent choice in defending its budget, and protecting the taxpayers of Methuen and of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. For those that are confused by the process that confusion, in light of the complexities involved, is understandable. But the Building Committee has largely been unanimous in its decision making up to this point. Our professional staff has been outstanding, and has shielded the City of Methuen from the potential budgetary problems inherent in public construction. The process is ready to be moved forward, but will require much additional work. The Methuen High School project will become a reality.

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The Inaugural Address of Mayor Zanni

Posted on January 3, 2012 by billmanzi

The Inaugural Address of Mayor Steve Zanni, at the Nevins Memorial Library.

The photo’s from the Inaugural are here.

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Thank You Methuen

Posted on January 2, 2012 by billmanzi

This morning Mayor Steve Zanni will be sworn in as Methuen’s fourth Mayor of the modern period, and fifth overall. With the closing of my third term of office as Mayor I would like to thank the good people of Methuen for the honor of serving as Mayor of this wonderful community. It really has been an honor and a privelege to serve this City. My thanks to the employees of the City, and to my staff, who put up with me for six years. Best wishes to all for a happy and safe New Year!

My exit interview with the Tribune is here.

My Staff on my final day in office!

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Diane Maroun is the December Artist of the Month

Posted on December 29, 2011 by billmanzi

Mayor William M. Manzi has named Diane Maroun as December’s Artist of the Month. Fine artist Diane J. Maroun, graduated from the prestigious School of the Museum of Fine Arts in Boston, Massachusetts. Diane has received instruction from nationally renown artists such as Copley Master, Mark Hayden and technical master John Barnes. For over 15 years Diane has created celebrated portraits of both people and animals using the techniques of such masters as Sargent or Bouguereau. From a photograph or live subject, Diane’s paintings “literally glow – offering a depth, richness, and quality of tone” not often found in art today.

Although her main focus is traditional and realistic art using oils and watercolors, Diane also has extensive experience in fantasy art and illustrative work for cards. In addition to being a commissioned fine artist, Diane has been past president and a member of Andover Artists Guild, Inc. of Andover, Massachusetts for over 12, as well as the past head coordinator for Andover Art in the Park for over 10 years. Diane also held the position of Director of the Alexander Fine Art Gallery of Haverhill, Massachusetts and was former Owner and Director of the Crescent Dragon Gallery Cafe also in Haverhill, Massachusetts. She currently works in Methuen.

Mayor Manzi stated, “I’d like to thank Diane for her participation in this program. She is one of the many talented artists working in our community. It is an honor to display her paintings in my office. I encourage people to come to my office and view her work.”

The Methuen Artist of the Month Program was created by Mayor Manzi over five years ago in order to give members of the Methuen Arts Community a forum to display their work and to encourage participation in Methuen’s growing creative economy.

Diane Maroun is the December 2011 Artist of the Month

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Mitt Deploys in Iowa

Posted on December 28, 2011 by billmanzi

Mitt Romney, sensing blood in the water, is deploying additional resources into Iowa as a new CNN Poll has him with a slight lead over Ron Paul. In this latest survey Newt Gingrich has dropped to fourth, behind Rick Santorum, who has campaigned real hard in Iowa over the past year.

The poll shows Romney at 25%, Paul at 22%, Santorum at 16%, Gingrich at 14%, (down from his prior 33%), Rick Perry at 11%, and Michelle Bachmann at 9%. The pounding that Gingrich has taken from the Romney and Paul campaigns has had the desired impact. He is sinking like a stone, with no organizational strength to prop him up.

Gingrich had to suffer the indignity of being unable to gather sufficient signatures in Virginia to qualify for the ballot, and then to have that failure magnified by Romney comparing it to Lucille Ball in a chocolate factory. As I pointed out when Gingrich had a mass walkout by campaign staff, and decided to cruise to the Greek Isles instead of working, organizational strength and fundraising win elections. He lacks both. And those chickens are now coming home to roost. He had an opportunity to deliver Romney some early blows, but his opportunity is rapidly slipping away. Finishing fourth, when he had a chance to win Iowa decisively, would be a big blow to his candidacy.

And what about the opposite of Newt, which would have to be Rick Santorum. He has been struggling with anemic poll numbers, but he has refused to quit, working as hard as he could, operating on a shoestring budget, and now rising to third place. I don’t agree with Santorum on much, but you have to admire his tenacity. His numbers outside of Iowa remain terrible, but he has made a real impact in Iowa, and appears to have gained largely at Newt Gingrich’s expense, a direct benefit to the Mittster. If Romney pulls this out you will have to give great credit to his strategic thinking. If he finishes second to Ron Paul I think it is almost as good as a win.

http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/cbsnews_player_embed.swf

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In Denial

Posted on December 26, 2011 by billmanzi

Pretty good column in the post by Robert Samuelson. Samuelson, who is right of center, lays out the problems our system is having resolving anything of substance on the budget. He puts out some interestring statistics that will likely have him accused by the left of slanting right, but in fact the stats are right. I think he misses some of the rational argument made by the left, converting an argument that calls for fairness in taxation levels to one that calls for confiscation of upper income wealth. But he is close enough to the argument to make some sense. He indicts the President for a lack of leadership on budgetary matters, as well as all Republicans save Paul Ryan. (He should have included Tom Coburn on the Republican side, for he has shown twice the political courage of Paul Ryan.)

The trouble is that, while the economics of giveaway policies have changed, the politics haven’t. Liberals still want more spending, conservatives more tax cuts. (Although the tax burden has stayed steady, various “cuts” have offset projected increases and shifted the burden.) With a few exceptions, Democrats and Republicans haven’t embraced detailed takeaway policies to reconcile Americans’ appetite for government benefits with their distaste for taxes. President Obama has provided no leadership. Aside from Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.), chairman of the House Budget Committee, few Republicans have.

In broad brush strokes he is right, and the obstinancy and ridiculous positions taken by the party extremes have contributed to the gridlock that faces the country. Many believe that we will muddle through, because we always have. Samuelson is not so sure about that. Neither am I.

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The Circular Firing Squad, or Merry Christmas Democrats

Posted on December 22, 2011 by billmanzi

Take a couple of days off from blogging only to return to the House Republican conference blowing themselves up. Just as they have done in the past the Republican conference, egged on by Eric Cantor, submarined their Speaker, blew up a two month bipartisan deal to extend the payroll tax relief package, and then had to quickly withdraw from the field of battle after taking incoming from President Obama, Senate Democrats, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, and Senate Republicans. Speaker Boehner looked like he was in shock when he announced his surrender.

So what happened? The Republican House Conference, in their heart of hearts, is really opposed to this tax cut. In order for them to swallow what they are afraid to admit they are opposed to, they wanted steep concessions from Democrats. Although they got the expedited review they sought on the pipeline issue that was not really the victory they thought it was. And as they looked at the deal and realized they would be back at it in two months they rebelled before they thought about how the endgame would be played out. Everyone knows that the Conference undercut the Speaker, who had agreed to the deal with Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid. When the rug got pulled out from under the Speaker by Eric Cantor the conference was on the way to disaster. If I were a member of that caucus I would be holding Cantor responsible for the political disaster this episode brought.

And although the Republican Presidential candidates have stayed away from the intramural tussle between House and Senate (Republicans) the impact on the Republican brand cannot be considered favorable. And that has to be a good thing for President Obama and Democrats downticket. The Wall Street Journal summed it up:

GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell famously said a year ago that his main task in the 112th Congress was to make sure that President Obama would not be re-elected. Given how he and House Speaker John Boehner have handled the payroll tax debate, we wonder if they might end up re-electing the President before the 2012 campaign even begins in earnest.

From Speaker Boehner and Leader Cantor: A very Merry Christmas to President Obama and the Democratic Party.

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Gingrich Slip Sliding in Iowa

Posted on December 19, 2011 by billmanzi

A couple of posts back I speculated that the massive air assault launched against Newt Gingrich by Mitt Romney and Ron Paul was indeed weighing down Gingrich, and might allow Romn Paul to sneak in the back door. Public Policy just released some new Iowa poll numbers showing just that, with Gingrich actually slipping into third place and Ron Paul leading the pack. For those that think that negative campaigning does not work lets look at this tidbit from Public Policy:

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there’s been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich’s image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has ‘strong principles,’ while 43% think he does not.

Ron Paul stands at 23%, with Mitt Romney at 20%, 14% for Gingrich, 10% for Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.

Paul does not just have good poll numbers in Iowa. He also has organization and money. Paul’s people have maintained libertarian organizations that date back to his last run, leaving him positioned to out-hustle the opposition on caucus day. Mitt Romney could not have mapped this out any better.

I am somewhat mystified as to the real lack of response by Gingrich to the savage assault placed on him over the airwaves. He apparently does not have the financial resources to respond at all, and he does not really have a ground game in Iowa. Looks like another “not-Mitt” flameout, with Newt’s eschewing “traditional” campaign methodology coming back to bite him hard. It may be time for another cruise so that Newt can think this over.

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Des Moines Register Endorses Romney

Posted on December 17, 2011 by billmanzi

The Des Moines Register tonight endorsed Mitt Romney as the most qualified Republican competing in the Iowa caucuses. Romney did not receive the endorsement four years ago from the Register, but he picked up a nice boost for his campaign tonight.

Sobriety, wisdom and judgment.

Those are qualities Mitt Romney said he looks for in a leader. Those are qualities Romney himself has demonstrated in his career in business, public service and government. Those qualities help the former Massachusetts governor stand out as the most qualified Republican candidate competing in the Iowa caucuses.

While the polls in Iowa have been a bit inconsistent it appears to be safe to say that a once good lead by Gingrich has evaporated under the twin attack guns of Romney and Ron Paul. And as Gingrich comes back down to earth Romney actually stands a good chance to win in Iowa. But even if he does not win a Ron Paul victory would not be a bad outcome for Romney either. Romney, for all the criticism heaped upon him, is like the freight train chugging down the track. He just keeps coming, remains disciplined and on message, and continues to provide the Republicans with a safe nominee, as opposed to everyone else in the field. After the snub by the Manchester Union Leader this is a good get for Mitt.

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