Barney Frank Holds Forth on Defense Spending

Posted on January 10, 2013 by billmanzi

Barney Frank, on the “Last Word” program, talking with Ezra Klein about U.S. military spending, and the need to look for reductions in that budget. Frank brings a point of view, and immense budgetary knowledge to back up that point of view, to this issue, and so many others. He certainly would bring that badly needed expertise, and a willingness to fight for his beliefs, to the position of interim Senator. That is why Republicans throughout the land are hoping that Barney Frank is not named interim Senator for Massachusetts.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Rex Trailer Passes Away

Posted on January 10, 2013 by billmanzi

It is a big loss for all of the many fans of Rex Trailer to learn that he has today passed away at 84. Rex Trailer hosted Bomtown, a show that provided good clean wholesome entertainment for kids, like me, back just a “few years”. I had never met Mr. Tailer, but he visited Methuen to participate in a dedication of a monument that celebrated the role of the horse in early fire prevention, and he was every bit of the gentleman that we had all come to know from the show. Rest in Peace Rex Trailer!

Rex Trailer Visits Methuen

Rex Trailer in Methuen for the Honor the Horse event.

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The Coming Train Wreck

Posted on January 8, 2013 by billmanzi

There has been much speculation in the media about the potential for another fiscal clash in the first quarter of this year, centered around the debt ceiling and the sequester. Much has been already written, and there is plenty more to come. On the heels of my prediction that we would go over the fiscal cliff to protect the House Republican caucus, and my second prediction that the Speaker would not have Republican votes for “Plan B”, I am prepared to offer more by way of predictions.

This post will actually have me agreeing with former Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has been cautioning Republicans against making a budgetary “final stand” around the debt ceiling. Gingrich correctly points out that refusing to raise the debt ceiling is not sustainable, and that Republicans must eventually give way on that. It would be another loss, and would further weaken or destroy Speaker Boehner. Additionally the market disruption it would cause would be substantial, forcing the business allies of the GOP to demand action. In light of that, and despite Boehner’s tough talk on the debt limit he has begun to signal that the debt ceiling may not be the “budgetary vehicle” that Republicans use. In the Wall Street Journal (“The Education of John Boehner”) the Speaker had this to say.

The real showdown will be on the debt ceiling and the spending sequester in March. I ask Mr. Boehner if he will take the debt-ceiling talks to the brink—risking a government shutdown and debt downgrade from the credit agencies—given that it didn’t work in 2011 and President Obama has said he won’t bargain on the matter.

The debt bill is “one point of leverage,” Mr. Boehner says, but he also hedges, noting that it is “not the ultimate leverage.”

Former Speaker Gingrich advocates that Republicans take a tough stand, but build the conflict around the sequester and the need for the House to fund the government through “continuing resolutions”. While I think that such actions will ultimately result (as they did with Gingrich) in a political loss for Republicans it is a far more responsible and justifiable political fight. The full faith and credit of the United States should not be put at risk to score political points, but the Republicans are well within their rights to allow the existing sequester cuts to take place, and to refuse to negotiate beyond what the House passes for a continuing resolution. It may shut down the government, but if the Republicans wish to travel down that road they should take the Gingrich advice.

Will they? I think the Speaker will do his best to guide them there, and ultimately I predict that is where we end up. The Speaker, in that same WSJ article, talks of his supposed leverage with the coming sequester.

As Mr. Boehner tells the story: Mr. Obama was sure Republicans would call for ending the sequester—the other “cliff”—because it included deep defense cuts. But Republicans never raised the issue. “It wasn’t until literally last week that the White House brought up replacing the sequester,” Mr. Boehner says. “They said, ‘We can’t have the sequester.’ They were always counting on us to bring this to the table.”

Mr. Boehner says he has significant Republican support, including GOP defense hawks, on his side for letting the sequester do its work. “I got that in my back pocket,” the speaker says. He is counting on the president’s liberal base putting pressure on him when cherished domestic programs face the sequester’s sharp knife. Republican willingness to support the sequester, Mr. Boehner says, is “as much leverage as we’re going to get.”

So the Speaker can force through the sequester cuts by taking no action. The problem for Speaker Boehner is that nobody takes that threat seriously. The Democrats may not be crazy about it but if you think that they will agree to replace “defense” sequester cuts with non-defense cuts he is crazier than his caucus. The Democrats will allow the sequester to take effect because they are not being offered anything that remotely looks like a deal. Boehner’s position, on the sequester and likely on the funding resolutions, appears to be that either the Democrats accept a partisan Republican solution or the Speaker will hold his breath until he turns blue. What that means is:

1) Sequester, as written and including defense, takes effect.

2) Failure to negotiate changes to House funding resolutions means that the Speaker will, a la Newt Gingrich, shut down the federal government.

Based on what we know of the Republican caucus I believe they will try to make a deal to avoid the defense sequester, but they will fail. They will not even try to make a reasonable deal on funding, so the shut down will be the real flash point between the President and the House Republicans. As Gingrich did the House Republicans will lose that political fight to the President. But it is a train wreck that I think is coming. For a look under the hood of the House Republican caucus the Politico story on the “Hell No Caucus” is worth a read. The influence of outside groups, like the “Club for Growth”, has pushed the Republicans further right, and greatly diminished the chances of reaching any standard political compromise with the House Republicans. The Speaker has thrown in the towel, realizing that his caucus will not be led to anything that looks like compromise. The inmates are running the asylum, and that is why I think that things will get worse before they get better.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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Bill Weld Unchained: An Independent Run?

Posted on January 7, 2013 by billmanzi

There is plenty of focus on Scott Brown as the prospective Republican candidate in the special election to succeed John Kerry that is coming down the pike. I see that possibility as more than likely, with Brown, rightly or wrongly, seeing opportunity against the current crop of potential Democratic candidates. But Bill Weld has come back to Massachusetts and there has been some speculation about his return to the political battlefield, with talk centering around a candidacy for U.S. Senate in the event Scott Brown takes a pass.

Weld has said that he would be supportive of a Scott Brown candidacy in the special, knocking down any possible thought of a primary fight between the two. But what would the best route to victory be for Weld should Brown take a pass? I submit that Weld’s best path to victory in any campaign for the Senate seat lies not as a Republican, but as an independent.

I have not been a fan of independent candidacies for all of the obvious reasons. In most cases candidates need the warm embrace of party apparatus to help with field work, finance, and logistics. Bill Weld is one of the few candidates that could successfully pull it off. And these days the State Republican Party of Massachusetts delivers none of the above, but brings plenty of dysfunction and baggage.

Scott Brown lost his last race despite maintaining a very respectable degree of popularity. There are many reasons why he lost, but a key, in my opinion, was his affiliation with the national Republican Party. Without rehashing the election I think it is fair to say that the national Republican brand was an albatross around Scott Brown’s neck. If he runs again the albatross will not go away, but will be placed very carefully around his neck again. If Weld were to be the candidate he would have the same problem in spite of his well known differences with the national Party. So what could Weld do to get around that albatross?

He could utilize the Angus King independent model, and look to accentuate his past differences with national Republicans as a sign that he is truly independent. His campaign could even float the idea that he might caucus with the Democrats, but like King refuse to say with finality until the election was over. In a race with Ed Markey he could play up his fight with Jesse Helms and say that they could tell me where to sit, but not where to stand. (Sorry, I could not help it). The national Republican Party fight with Governor Chris Christie is strong evidence that they are becoming a regional party, with a one trick arsenal. Northeastern Republicans, much like old line Democrats in the South, are looking at being wiped out totally, unless they take strong steps to renounce the brand. Southern Democrats, like Jesse Helms and Strom Thurmond, all fled the Democratic Party when they could no longer sustain the differences they had with the national Party on civil rights. That “Southern Strategy” was effectively deployed by President Nixon, and had some pundits predicting a “permanent Republican majority”. It is now a straight jacket for Republicans, and political poison for northeastern Republicans. Bill Weld is a brilliant man who understands the difficulties involved for a Republican in Massachusetts. As an independent he could stand, as did Angus King, for a “pox on both of their houses” approach, calling for fiscal reforms a la Simpson-Bowles, taking strong socially progressive positions, and becoming a strong advocate for “progress, not gridlock”, in Washington. For people looking for something beyond cookie cutter Weld might prove to be an attractive option. As a Democrat I think that Republican Scott Brown will be a formidable candidate, but the template for defeating him exists, and I believe that in the final analysis Brown loses that race. What I truly fear is a Bill Weld unchained from the Republican Party, a strong candidate with appeal to many who just cannot pull the trigger for a Republican. Is Weld back in the fight? If so it may be as an Independent!

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I Love the Sound of Breaking Glass. Barney Frank for Senate!

Posted on January 4, 2013 by billmanzi

Barney Frank, in a morning appearance on Morning Joe, expressed his desire to be named to the interim U.S. Senate position by Governor Deval Patrick. He had indicated earlier that he would not want that slot, but he has changed his mind. Senator Barney Frank? It has a great ring to it. And Frank certainly will upset the clubby atmosphere in the Senate. I love the sound of breaking glass.

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The State House Looks to Transportation

Posted on January 3, 2013 by billmanzi

The Congress of the United States has taken most of the media attention in the last few weeks, but in Massachusetts the new Legislature was sworn in yesterday, with both Speaker Robert Deleo and Senate President Therese Murray re-elected to their respective posts. Congratulations to all the members, especially the new members. They will have their hands full.

In the opening speeches given by the Leaders the issues of transportation, infrastructure, and gun safety and control were placed front and center. Both leaders will not announce Committee assignments for another month or so, but the Speaker gave notice of his intent to re-appoint Rep. William Strauss to the chairmanship of Transportation. Rep. Strauss, in separate comments, acknowledged the need for new revenues to fund our transportation infrastructure:From the State House News Service:

Raising revenue for the state’s underfunded transportation system has to be part of the discussion, Straus said. “My own feeling is if we are going to make the kind of investments in keeping our transportation up to date that everyone across the spectrum needs, I don’t know where within the current revenue stream in state government you can find the money,” Straus said. “It has got to be part of the discussion. I don’t know what the outcome will be. But the Legislature and the public need to have a revenue discussion.”

The Governor is due to present the Legislature with some ideas on that subject within the next week or so. Whether the Governor comes in with a hard and fast recommendation, or presents the Legislature with a menu (a la carte)is still up in the air, but we will soon know the answer to that question. Rep. Strauss understands that the financing shortfalls in transportation run very high.

Straus said the needs could be larger than what the public can stomach. “The administration has identified an annual unmet deficit in transportation funding of over $1 billion a year. I don’t know that the public or the membership would be willing to look at revenue numbers that high on an annual basis, but that’s the kind of figures – in the hundreds of millions of dollars – that needs to be raised in order to meet the state of repair for the transportation system,” Straus said. “The other thing about raising the revenue is that to the extent the revenue, the source of it is tied to the transportation system, so that in a sense the people who use the roads, use the rails, who use the airports are the ones who are asked to pay for it, that may also be important to the members and the public.” Asked what he would look for in a transportation financing bill, Straus reiterated the broad points House Speaker Robert DeLeo made from the rostrum on Wednesday. A “fair” distribution of transportation resources throughout the state, the importance of maintaining a safe transportation system, and the necessity of transportation for a strong economy will all be weighing on Straus, he told the News Service.

The Rep. is of course correct. The full dimensions of the problem are contained in the report of the so called State Transportation Finance Commission issued several years back. But what the Legislature can stomach, and what vehicle is recommended for raising revenue, will be key political components moving forward. I personally think that the Speaker’s call for “regional equity” in how new transportation revenues are distributed is a key substantive and political piece of the equation. New revenues that substantially benefit only Boston will be difficult to swallow for many members.

I have attached below the remarks of the Senate President and the Speaker. And whatever we do please make no reference to any “Massachusetts transportation cliff”. Thank you!

http://www.statehousenews.com/video/13-01-02murray_speech/player-viral.swf

http://www.statehousenews.com/video/13-01-02deleo_speech/player-viral.swf

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Where Are You Going?

Posted on December 31, 2012 by billmanzi

As the temper tantrums and recriminations fly back and forth in Washington on the fiscal cliff I have to say that I am, despite my low expectations, still amazed at what is nothing short of group dysfunction in American government. Just how low have we managed to sink? Let us count the ways.

This morning the Senate will come back into session after a Sunday where the Republicans managed to further shoot themselves in the (foot) (feet) (lower extremities), and have found themselves in an untenable spot politically. As negotiations appeared to be moving along Republicans came forward with a demand that Social Security cost of living increases should be modified (chained CPI) in a way that would reduce benefits. At the same time they were fighting against higher tax rates for the top 2% of earners, putting themselves in the great position of fighting to reduce Social Security for seniors to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy. At some point in the day John McCain and other GOP Senators came to this realization when they apparently gave the matter some thought. McCain tweeted that “Chained CPI” was off the table for the GOP. His comments, as reported in the Huffington Post:

“CPI has to be off the table because it’s not a winning argument to say benefits for seniors versus tax breaks for rich people,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). “We need to take CPI off the table — that’s not part of the negotiations — because we can’t win an argument that has Social Security for seniors versus taxes for the rich.”

McCain and the GOP have come very slowly to the realization that they are now in a trap that they cannot escape from, a trap that they insisted (forcefully) on entering, and that walking away (again) from a larger deal with the President means that they in essence get very little that they want from the much smaller deal. (Such as Chained CPI). David Brooks, on Meet the Press, laid most of the blame on Republicans, saying:

Now I think most of the blame still has to go to the Republicans. They’ve had a brain freeze since the election. They have no strategy. They don’t know what they want. And they haven’t decided what they want.

Brooks offered some criticism of the President as well, but his criticism of the Republicans, in my opinion, is the important one. I believe he is right on the Republicans not knowing what they want, and I am just not sure how you negotiate with folks who don’t know what they want.

The dysfunction, and just plain stupidity, comes from the fact that all tax rates go up in two days. On that basis alone Republicans ought to be negotiating a deal that gets them all that they can from the weak position they now find themselves in. Despite the political hole they are in Republicans just keep digging.

If the talks do not produce an agreement today Majority Leader Harry Reid will introduce a bill on the Senate floor that is reflective of the President’s last offer, and the Senate GOP will be in a pickle. If they allow a straight majority vote (no filibuster) the bill will pass and go to the House, which will present the Speaker with a political problem. He has indicated that he would allow a vote, but I would anticipate that Republicans will amend it, and pass it right back to the Senate. That will likely bring the process to a close. Or the Senate GOP can reach a deal, and put the Speaker right back into that problem area. Can a GOP Senate sanctioned deal pass the House? That may end up as the question of the day!

For the odds-makers out there my last “line” was “off the cliff” as a 3 to 1 betting favorite. Today I make “off the cliff” a 2 to 1 betting favorite. At least the cliff part will be over as of midnight tonight, when we can immediately start writing about the debt ceiling. Happy New Year to all of you.

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Big-Footed

Posted on December 29, 2012 by billmanzi

And so the powers that be have anointed Congressman Ed Markey as the next U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, issuing a well choreographed series of endorsements to his new candidacy to replace John Kerry. Why, even the future Secretary of State got into the act, issuing a statement that sounded like an endorsement. (Probably written by the wordmasters over at Foggy Bottom for the ever so diplomatic Secretary of State in waiting.)

With the short time frames involved the Washington power structure has made it incredibly difficult for any other potential candidate to gain traction. The other candidates who have been prominently mentioned are Congressman Michael Capuano, Congressman Stephen Lynch, and State Senator Benjamin Downing. Others, like former Congressman Marty Meehan, Vicki Kennedy, Edward Kennedy Jr., Congresswoman Niki Tsongas, and a host of others, took themselves out of contention, leaving a more limited choice for Democrats. Under those conditions, and fearing a Scott Brown comeback, Washington insiders determined that they would unite behind Markey in an attempt to stop a primary bloodletting that might hurt the Democratic nominee.

Why Markey instead of one of the others? Markey is sitting on $3 million plus in his campaign account, giving him a big leg up on both Lynch and Capuano in that area. Markey is the dean of the House delegation, but is probably not the most popular guy in that group. (Just ask Barney Frank about that). In the end it simply becomes an equation for the Democratic power brokers in Washington based on one consideration: how can we best win? Their answer is with Ed Markey.

Just a couple of observations on the “process”. It is not clear to me that Ed Markey is the right answer to the question on who has the best shot to hold the seat for Democrats. But far smarter people, with access to data, have determined that he is, so let us concede the point. Nonetheless what has happened here is an injustice to Capuano, Lynch, Downing, and whoever else was thinking about running. I do not come at this question as a “process” diehard, as some of my good Democratic friends do. I like to win, and I like to see things move, and on that basis I understand what happened. But Capuano, Lynch, and Downing deserved better than what they got. And I am fascinated by the utter lack of consistency of some of those in the liberal blogosphere, who have been devoted to “process” and “democracy”, who now turn a blind eye to what is nothing short of putting the fix in. It will just be a bit more difficult to raise objections in the future when it happens with a different set of candidates.

Finally it is worth noting that one pretty big footprint lies on the back of Governor Deval Patrick, who went from a key player in the selection process to an after thought. Since the Markey move the Governor has been marginalized, with the Washington folks just blowing right by him. The Governor is used to doing the big footing, but in this case the role has been reversed.

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Holiday Cliff Diving

Posted on December 26, 2012 by billmanzi

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and holiday season. As we prepare for the New Year let us return once more to the dreaded “fiscal cliff”, which is being dealt with in Washington at quite a leisurely pace.

As we left our hard working public servants before they jetted off for holiday Speaker John Boehner had been flummoxed by his own caucus rejecting “Plan B”, which would have raised marginal tax rates on those earning $1 million and above. The Speaker then punted over to Harry Reid and the Senate, saying it is up to them to produce a workable, passable plan. The President has offered a scaled down deal, with unemployment benefits extended, tax breaks extended for those under $250,000, and some other unspecified items. Those other, non-specified would likely include the AMT Patch, some recommendation on the estate tax, and a modification of the sequester, which would essentially boil down to creating Sequester 2 in 2013. Left unattended would be the debt ceiling, which will rear its ugly head again in 2013. Majority Leader Reid has said he might be willing to put forward a package, but only if Minority Leader Mitch McConnell promises not to filibuster it. And while both Senate and House have actually passed partisan bills to deal with taxes Speaker Boehner referred to the “blue slip” problem that the Senate bill(s) have. (Under the Constitution all revenue raising bills must originate in the House). Minority Leader McConnell, at least publicly, has refused to say whether he will in fact filibuster any Democratic bill. McConnell is a candidate for re-election next year, and is looking over his shoulder at a possible right wing primary challenge, so he is reluctant to be seen as “cooperating” with Democrats on anything. Speaker Boehner, even if he gets a Senate bill passed by majority vote without a “blue slip” problem, has not said if he would allow that bill to get to the House floor if it does not have a “majority of the majority”. If he does allow it forward conservatives are threatening his hold on the Speakership for allowing a bill that would raise taxes to go forward. Those very same taxes that rise for everyone a couple of days later. Are you following me so far? The only thing I have not included is the bill that Leader Reid may file to place both Speaker Boehner and Leader McConnell on double secret probation until this issue is resolved.

The media has focused almost exclusively on the tax issue, and the prospects for drawing sufficient House Republican votes for a (tax) bill to secure passage if the Speaker allows it forward. But it is a bit more complicated than that. You might be able to pick off enough Republicans on a straight tax vote to ensure House passage, but the inclusion of extended unemployment benefits in such a bill could peel those GOP votes off. Would the Democrats support a bill that did not include unemployment benefits? Since the Democrats would be supplying the vast majority of the votes you might think that item would be non-negotiable, and in a traditional compromise that would be true. But this is not traditional in any sense of the word. I anticipate that some vote will be allowed in both chambers, and that McConnell will ultimately vote no, but not filibuster. A bill would get through the Senate. I have real doubts that any bill can pass the House, but there is always hope and optimism to sustain us.

I have been saying that “off the cliff” is the betting favorite, and it still is. I believe that the “line” makes going over a 3 to 1 favorite. The knot that has been tied needs to be untied pretty quickly. I just don’t see these folks getting it done in time.

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Why Can't a Deal be Made? Watch This Video.

Posted on December 21, 2012 by billmanzi

As you wonder what happened to John Boehner in his caucus just watch this video. Rep. Tim Huelskamp went on Morning Joe this morning and essentially said that there is no compromise to be had. How do you deal with folks like this? And for those hoping to see some new common sense gun regulations please take note of the exchange on that issue. Very little chance of getting anything through the House of Representatives with guys like Tim Huelskamp serving in that body. And very little chance of reaching a deal without the Speaker relying on Democratic votes to get one through the House. This is exactly what is wrong with government today.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

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