A Health Care Break for Massachusetts Hospitals Draws Scrutiny

Governor Deval Patrick today named William “Mo” Cowan as the interim U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, and he will be immediately faced with an issue of great import to Massachusetts hospitals. Senator Tom Coburn and Senator Claire McCaskill have offered legislation in the U.S. Senate that may prove very costly to our hospitals. Coburn estimates that Massachusetts hospitals receive a benefit of $367 million annually from a special provision in the Affordable Care Act that only benefits Massachusetts Massachusetts hospitals. He and Senator McCaskill would like to do away with that provision. From the press release by Senator Coburn:

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) – Today, U.S. Sens. Tom Coburn, M.D. (R-OK) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO) introduced a bill, S.183, that would sunset Section 3141 of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA). The provision adjusted the calculation of a hospital wage index used to make payments under the Medicare program. Unfortunately, the provision has the net effect of reducing Medicare reimbursements for hospitals in every state except for Massachusetts. Sens. Coburn and McCaskill’s bill would eliminate this gimmick by sunsetting the provision, ending the favoring of hospitals in one state at the expense of all the other states’ hospitals.

“It is unfair to manipulate the Medicare payment system to benefit one state’s hospitals at the expense of all other states’ hospitals,” said Dr. Coburn. “This policy is effectively a payment earmark inserted in a law without the American people’s knowledge or consent. No state should have a special exemption while others bear the costs for a provision designed to advance a special interest. This legislation would sunset this unjust provision and allow all hospitals in all states to be treated equally under the law.”

“This provision unfairly benefits some states to the disadvantage of others, like Missouri—it’s inefficient, and I’m happy to work in a bipartisan way to improve the health care reform law by repealing the provision,” McCaskill said. “I’ve consistently said that, whether you supported or opposed the Affordable Care Act, we can work together to keep improving and strengthening it as it’s implemented.”

Recently, the National Rural Health Association and 20 state hospital associations wrote the President about the “adverse impact” Section 3141 of PPACA is having. They noted this provision of law “permitted the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to manipulate the federal Medicare program, reaping an estimated $367 million annually from the other 49 states – and unfairly favoring one state’s hospitals and Medicare beneficiaries to the detriment of others.” The association warned that “if left uncorrected, hospitals in 49 states will experience reduced funding of more than $3.5 billion over the next ten years as a direct result of this manipulation.”

Senator-Designate Cowan will not be coasting on the job, as he has been “greeted” warmly by Senator Coburn. Right to work. Congratulations to Mo Cowan on his appointment. Massachusetts is pulling for you.

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Lynch an Underdog but….

The race to succeed John Kerry in the U.S. Senate is about to move into high gear, with Democrats Steve Lynch and Ed Markey prepared to kick off their campaigns this week, with Lynch kicking off at the Iron Workers Hall tomorrow (Thursday) and Markey kicking off Saturday at the Malden Y. Lynch is flying into the teeth of the Democratic establishment, with most of the party bigwigs, including John Kerry, supporting Ed Markey. Markey has a pretty big financial advantage as the race opens, with over $3 million on hand, compared to less than $1 million for Lynch. Lynch is perceived as more “conservative”, which is also a Markey advantage in a Democratic primary. So Markey should roll to victory based on some of the obvious political advantages? I would not be so sure.

Steve Lynch has been an underdog before, and is a disciplined and hard working candidate. Although we have all known Markey will be a candidate for weeks his campaign, as of yet, is nothing that is instilling fear into the hearts of potential opponents. In fact had more upfront work been done Lynch might have been forced into taking a pass. But Lynch has to like what he sees so far. Let us see who the harder working candidate will be on the Democratic side. I have a feeling it won’t be Ed Markey. Lynch, if history is a guide, will make this race very competitive through his strong work ethic alone. Mayor Tom Menino’s support would be a boon to either candidate, and in a low turnout primary could really make the difference between victory and defeat. The Mayor’s actions will be closely scrutinized, but I happen to believe he is more likely to give some help to Rep. Lynch. A pretty big variable for sure.

Scott Brown, on the Republican side, appears to be contemplating another run. Brown looked to be seriously considering taking a pass on this race. But he also does not seem to be smitten with fear of a potential Ed Markey candidacy, and the wooden campaign put on so far by Markey likely encouraged Brown as well. For those that say that the lack of early activity is not important I say nonsense. It is important.

I am less concerned with early polling in the general election matchup, but would love to see some Democratic primary numbers. Scott Brown leads both potential Democratic nominees in a general election matchup, but that lead will shrink as the Democrats begin to work the state. For now all the attention will be focused on Lynch/Markey.

Steve Lynch has a much stronger chance to win this primary than the conventional wisdom would have you believe.Is Lynch the underdog? Yes he is. But he has been an underdog for most of his political career.

I have not endorsed in this race.

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A Balanced Budget Amendment With No Balanced Budget

The Republican House caucus recently conducted a members “retreat” to discuss many things, among which was their own dysfunction, what to do about the “debt ceiling”, how to deal with a President who keeps rolling them, and what to do about a leadership team that seems more concerned with short term political survival than with long term progress for the country. Coming out of the retreat the caucus came to the realization that the debt ceiling fight was a dead loser for them politically. So instead of forcing a default the House punted the debt ceiling forward by a few months, and scored some political points by demanding that the Senate pass a budget. Republicans have been moaning about the lack of a Senate budget for some time, and as a political matter they have a point. So how did Speaker Boehner and Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan convince the caucus to punt the debt ceiling? They promised them that the House would produce, in the next budget cycle, a budget that balances in ten years.

Lots of folks who follow this budget talk in a less than comprehensive fashion might be shocked by that. Many people I talk to would take an oath that the “Ryan Plan” produced a balanced budget! After all isn’t that what all the fighting has been about? The Republicans calling for fiscal discipline, and railing against the debt???? Surely Paul Ryan’s budget showed balance, because that is what he keeps saying we need. In fact Republicans have demanded that Congress pass a “balanced budget amendment” to the Constitution, which would make such balance a constitutional requirement. So what is the truth?

Paul Ryan’s budget did not show balance for over thirty years, and that imbalance makes his, and the Republican’s calls for a “balanced budget amendment”, fundamentally dishonest. So now they have taken the pledge to balance the budget in only ten years, and to do so with the existing revenue stream. In an interesting sidebar Paul Ryan now indicates that when he produces that budget he will include the $600 billion plus in new revenues that the Republicans strenuously fought against. Would be an interesting exercise to see what that budget would look like without those revenues.

Ryan, in his Sunday Meet the Press interview, made the claim that Republican budgetary philosophy was not to impose “austerity”, but rather to promote growth. He took pains to distance Republicans from the failures that are visible to all but the willfully blind in Great Britain, where the Cameron government has imposed austerity in a time of recession and created a downward economic spiral that comes from such wrong headed thinking. The best line I have read on the British experiment with austerity came from Matthew O’Brien in the Atlantic.

Unless austerity is offset by monetary easing, contractionary fiscal policy is indeed contractionary.

Pretty simple to understand, but something that Republicans just have trouble figuring out. If you undertake policies that are designed to contract the economy, the economy will indeed contract. Job losses, loss of economic output, and then more cuts because the economy is contracting and the deficit is rising as a percentage of the smaller pie lead to a death spiral. While you might think that nobody in their right mind would want such an outcome many Republicans seem eager to emulate the British failure. Ryan, well aware of the Cameron failure, will now be charged with the development of a budget that, by definition, MUST emulate the British model in order to achieve that balance in ten years. He is taking pains to separate rhetorically from this concept, but the numbers will be difficult to parse.

As a final thought I realize that Republicans have had a great talking point in whipping the Senate for their failure to produce budgets for many years. But Democrats have failed to ask how Republicans can advocate for a balanced budget amendment while at the same time refusing to actually produce a balanced budget. “Where is the balance” might be a question for Republican budget writers? Paul Ryan is about to try to answer that question, and the consequences for Republicans will be dramatic. His interview with Meet the Press is below.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

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The Massachusetts Governor's Race

The Massachusetts Governor’s race will shortly come into focus, with the Senate special election diverting some attention in the short term, but the main event is not that far away. The withdrawal of Lt. Governor Tim Murray has opened the door for other potential candidates, and although it is early there are some major players looking at this race on the Democratic side. Two of the more interesting ones are Attorney General Martha Coakley, and Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll.

Attorney General Coakley has said that she is running for re-election, but with Murray out there is a clear path to victory for her. Since her loss to Scott Brown in the Senate race Martha Coakley has worked as hard as possible at her job as Attorney General. She has done some truly terrific work in that office, and in my opinion now stands as one of the most popular Democrats in the state. She would bring an awful lot to the table in that race, and it is my thought that she has certainly earned the huge respect that she commands today with Massachusetts voters, and with Democratic primary voters in particular. If she runs for Governor I make Coakley the betting favorite in that field, regardless of who else may or may not be in.

Another person that needs to be looked at for state wide office is Mayor Kim Driscoll of Salem. Mayor Driscoll is a terrific municipal manager who has done some great things for her City. She has been active state wide on so many issues vital to localities, and that leadership has resulted in her selection to head the Massachusetts Mayors Association. Mayor Driscoll has expressed reluctance to consider a run for Governor with Tim Murray a potential candidate, but that is no longer an issue. She may choose a run for Lt Governor, but I believe that she will be a strong candidate for state wide office regardless of which office she runs for.

Of course there will be other potential candidates for Governor. Mayor Joseph Curatone of Somerville would also be a candidate with a strong resume, and room to grow. Doctor Donald Berwick, relatively unknown but with a strong resume, may also run. The Democrats will have a strong field from which to choose, and you know there will be more coming. The next post on the Republicans….

Martha Coakley

Martha Coakley

Mayor Kim Driscoll

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Transportation Projects Funded by Governor

The Governor has unveiled a large and ambitious set of transportation infrastructure investments in his recently released budget and transport finance plans. The Mass DOT has released the full list on their website, and I have posted those projects below. As mentioned in earlier posts the Legislature will now have some choices to make. Don’t like the South Coast Rail project? Cut it and save $1.8 billion. You get the idea. No funds, no projects. Any projects that you think are important? Not so important?

Regional Priority Projects ($930 million) – Funds three major highway projects, including the I-91 viaduct in Springfield, the I-93/I-95 interchange in Woburn and the I-93/I-95 Interchange in Canton. These projects will address safety and mobility concerns in severely crowded areas.
Chapter 90 ($1.0 billion) – An additional $100 million per year to help the Commonwealth’s 351 cities and towns improve local roads and bridges.

Bridge program ($1.175 billion) – Funds a new targeted program modeled after the successful Accelerated Bridge Program (which ends in 2016) to accelerate repair to local bridges and complete several larger bridges.

Multimodal Highway Program ($1.25 billion) – Funds a statewide portfolio of local and regional projects designed to improve safety, reduce the number of high crash locations and reduce congestion. This also includes $250 million for the transportation assets owned by the Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR).

Highway Preservation Facilities & Systems ($400 million) – Targeted funding for a municipal small bottlenecks program; safety and operational improvements at depots; deployment of roadside traffic and travel information; equipment procurements and completion of an integrated asset management system.

Bicycle & Pedestrian Facilities ($430 million) — Dedicated funding to construct and improve bicycle and pedestrian facilities owned and managed by MassDOT and DCR.

RTA Vehicles ($400 million) — Funds a 10-year program to replace regional buses that have exceeded their useful life, add buses for expanded service and support replacement of other equipment and facility upgrades, resulting in fewer delays and improved reliability.

New MBTA Red and Orange Line Cars ($1.5 billion) – Funds the replacement of 43-year-old Red Line cars and 31-year-old Orange Line cars as well as improvements to tracks, signals and systems. The new cars and system upgrade will result in faster and less crowded commutes. The cars will be made in Massachusetts, supporting the local economy.

Red Line Car #3 Overhaul ($200 million) – Overhauls the newest Red Line cars, which are nearly 20 years old.

Green Line Cars ($732 million) – Funds new Green Line cars and system improvements, reducing wait times and allowing for more 3-car trains that enable increased passenger capacity. The cars will be made in Massachusetts, supporting the local economy.

MBTA Buses ($450 million) – Accelerates a 10-year program to replace buses that have exceeded their useful life, increasing capacity and reducing breakdowns.

MBTA Power Facilities & Operations ($300 million) – Funds critical upgrades to decades-old electrical service, fuel systems, water pumps, track, tunnel and other infrastructure that is essential for the timely operation of trains and buses. Coupled with new subway vehicles trips will be faster and more reliable.

Aeronautics ($125 million) – Addresses maintenance and safety improvements at our general aviation airports. These investments will help support jobs in the aviation industry.

Registry of Motor Vehicles ($150 million) – Funding to allow for the consolidation of current registry branches into new regional super centers; development and installation of self-service kiosks at retail and municipal centers for customer convenience.

Modernization Pilot Projects ($200 million) – Funds the piloting of Bus Rapid Transit and Diesel Multiple Unit services. These innovative transit options would increase mobility for residents expand business and economic opportunities.

The Patrick-Murray Administration has made targeted infrastructure investment a cornerstone of its economic development efforts. Current projects like Assembly Square Station, Wonderland Garage and Brighton Landing are leveraging major new development projects that include new housing units, office and retail and space and creating new jobs.

Recognizing the link between investments like those and a strong economy and job growth, the plan also allows for targeted expansion projects across the state. These expansions focus on areas of the state where opportunity is constrained by substandard service or by lack of access. Projects include:

South Coast Rail ($1.8 billion) – Completion of the South Coast Rail Line with diesel-fueled commuter trains to connect Boston to Fall River and New Bedford. This results in greater mobility for South Coast residents and less congestion on Route 24. The project is expected to create 3,800 jobs and generate $500 million in new economic activity statewide annually.

Green Line Extension ($674 million) – Extension of the current Green Line from relocated Lechmere station in Cambridge to College Avenue in Medford, fulfilling a commitment made during the construction of the Central Artery Project and unlocking new economic opportunity in the region.

South Station Expansion ($850 million) – Design and construction, within 10 years, of an expanded South Station that will accommodate future passenger rail growth for the existing commuter rail system, South Coast rail, Amtrack, Worcester to Springfield rail and future high-speed service to Montreal. The expansion will also allow for additional rush hour service.

Rail between Springfield and Boston ($362.4 million) –Passenger rail service directly connecting Boston with Springfield via what is known commonly as the Inland Route. Funding will cover rehabilitation along the route, creating a second track, widening bridges, upgrading signals purchasing train equipment, and constructing or rehabilitating stations. This will also support future high-speed rail connection to New York City via Springfield.

Berkshires to NYC Rail ($113.8 million) – Rehabilitation of track, signals and structures between Pittsfield and the Massachusetts-Connecticut state line to support future rail service between Pittsfield and New York City. The current line is served by freight carriers and is not up to standards necessary for commuter service.

Rail to Cape Cod ($20.8 million) – Seasonal service on weekends between Boston and Hyannis. Upgrades rail, grade crossings, bridges and station accessibility. Service during the summer season will connect a key tourist destination with Boston.

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The Governor's New Budget- More Choices

The Governor filed his FY 2014 Budget this week, and I would venture a guess that the Legislature’s collective head is about to explode. His budget builds the tax increases he unveiled earlier in to pay for transportation and education initiatives, and also asks for sales tax increases for soda, candy and a large excise increase for cigarettes.

A few of the additional spending areas that the Governor highlighted.

$269 million extra for the MBTA.
$226 million extra for Chapter 70 (local education aid)
$31 million additional for unrestricted local aid.*

The Governor utilizes one time revenue of $555 million, including a withdrawal of $400 million from the “rainy day fund”. As mentioned in an earlier post the Governor relies on a revenue estimate that is up by over $800 million from last year. There is a lot of new money floating around in the Governor’s budget, including the first allocation of gaming money ($83 million) and the inclusion of $26 million from the extension of the sales tax to internet sales from Amazon.

My posts tend to focus on the issues of local importance, and this one is no different. I have given the small increase in unrestricted local aid an asterisk, as the line item that feeds that appropriation has been level funded, with a new line created that adds that $31 million. The purpose of the new line is to address inequities in the formula governing local aid. From the Governor’s description:

An additional $31 M in local aid will be distributed to all municipalities through the new “Annual Formula Local Aid” program. The existing allocation of local aid among the Commonwealth’s cities and towns (UGGA) is meant to maintain year-to-year consistency regardless of changes in a municipality’s circumstances and is no longer based on a rational funding formula. Annual Formula Local Aid addresses these critical aspects of a rational local aid program:

Provides a simple and transparent formula using a combined measure of property values and income to calculate each municipality’s relative ability to provide essential local services; and
Will consistently provide equitable distributions into the future, as each year the formula components will be updated and the total distribution of aid will be calculated using the updated components.

As best I can read the numbers it appears that all communities will receive the same amounts for unrestricted local aid as they did last year, with all of that extra $31 million placed in that Formula Aid line. Locally I see that Haverhill will receive an additional $343,219, Methuen an additional $245,745, North Andover an additional $86,557, Amesbury $70,443, Lawrence $922,783, and Newburyport an additional $48,524. That is not counting the additional Chapter 70 funding. Before we start counting that money locally let us realize that we are a long way from realizing anything just yet. But you can see that the Legislature will have some difficult choices to make, as the Governor has moved some of that new revenue to accounts that will have vocal constituencies. The Governor’s press availability on the budget is below.

http://www.statehousenews.com/content/shnsmmedia/video/13-01-23gov_QA/player-viral.swf

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OPEB Report and More Reform

The Governor certainly appears to mean what he said about sprinting to the finish line. The latest reform that the Legislature will be grappling with is how to deal with the costs of retiree health care at the state and municipal level. This issue is a gigantic sword pointed at the fiscal heart of municipalities throughout the Commonwealth, with unfunded liabilities amounting to billions of dollars. With that in mind the Governor, Legislature, and stakeholders put together the OPEB Commission to deal with the issue, and make recommendations.

A good place to start might be with the obvious question: What the hell is OPEB? It is “other (than pension) post-employment benefits”. For our purposes it is the obligation of both the State of Massachusetts and its localities to provide health care to its retirees. That obligation, coupled with our “pay as you go” method for dealing with it, has left municipalities with a huge future obligation and no methodology for paying it. Some years ago the same issue existed for our pension system, which was also on a pay as you go system. That has been modified so that both the Commonwealth and localities are on a mandatory schedule set by actuarial calculation to become fully funded on pension obligations. (Yes that schedule has been fiddled with, but lets not get diverted.) Newer accounting requirements (GASB 45)now force communities to list the present value of OPEB obligations, with a calculation included called ARC (Annual Required Contribution) that is the number required to pay current obligation as well as amortizing a portion of the unfunded liability. But that is just a number to look at, since most municipalities are still on the “pay as you go”system, and no municipality (that I am aware of) is on a fully funded ARC. Is there anything to worry about here? The numbers please! From the OPEB Commission report:

In Massachusetts, the OPEB liability for state and local government amounts to approximately $46 billion- a liability larger than the unfunded pension liabilities in the Commonwealth- and budgetary spending for retiree health benefits exceeds $1 billion.

That is a substantial amount of future liability, with very little pre-funded, leaving a huge burden for future taxpayers. A study by the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation estimated that the top 50 cities in the Commonwealth currently pay about $500 million in retiree health care costs, and would be required, if put on a full funding schedule, to come up an additional $700 million annually. (The so called ARC payment would be $1.2 billion.) Yes you read that number right. Another number to dwell on is the Massachusetts Municipal Association estimate that between 2001 and 2010 retiree health care spending rose from 13.5% to 20% as a share of municipal budgets. (And folks wonder where, at the local level, tax dollars are going!)How about more numbers on where our money is going? From 2002 to 2009 health care costs for the 50 largest municipalities in Massachusetts grew by 85%, while property tax revenues grew by 42%. (So the next time you hear someone railing about bad budgeting and fiscal issues just lean over and say READ THE NUMBERS. It is HEALTH CARE bankrupting us, and nothing else.) And again that spending does not include ANY pre-payments to deal with the enormous unfunded liability. How did we get here, and how do we get out from under? The Commission talks about the drivers of OPEB liability, which are the loose standards for benefit eligibility, the richness of the benefit once qualified, and the spiraling cost of health care. The standards for eligibility mirror those that qualify folks for pension eligibility. So as an example a municipal employee in Group 1 may retire at age 55 after ten years of service, and would be eligible for retirement health benefits. From the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation Report titled “Retiree Health Care: The Brick That Broke Municipalities’ Back”:

After only 10 years of service, employees are entitled to lifetime health care benefits upon retirement.
By contrast, the pension system tailors benefits to years of service so an individual who works for 30 years receives a much greater benefit than one with 10 years of service. Retirees are eligible for health care benefits as early as age 55, 10 years before they qualify for Medicare.The state mandates that municipal employees must work only 20 hours per week to be eligible for the same benefits as full-time employees. Such part-time employees also need to have only 10 years of service to receive retiree benefits, so a part-time employee must work the equivalent of only five years of full-time service to obtain lifetime retiree health care benefits. State law requires that retiree health benefits include spouse and dependent coverage which costs more than twice as much as individual coverage. At local option, spouses retain lifetime coverage upon the death of a retiree.

So the Commission, armed with data on eligibility, costs, and huge future liabilities that will eventually crush municipalities has come forward with a set of recommendations in an attempt to at least partially right the system. Eligibility standards would be raised, with benefits varying depending on total years of service. The Massachusetts Municipal Association summarized some of those recommendations:

The governor is endorsing the commission’s recommendation that the minimum age for benefits be increased by five years (to age 60 for Group 1 retirees) and that the years-of-service requirement to receive the minimum benefit be increased by 10 years, to 20 years.

In order to recognize the accomplishment of career employees, the commission recommends pro-rating benefits based on years of service. An employee retiring after 20 years of service would receive 50 percent of the “maximum available benefit” – in other words, the health insurance premium contribution offered by the municipality would be no less than 50 percent. An employee retiring at 30 years would receive 100 percent of the “maximum available benefit.”

The commission made recommendations for two additional benchmarks, at 23 and 27 years of service.

Current retirees would be exempt from all proposed changes. The changes would apply to current and future employees unless there is a specific “grandfather” clause.

In an effort to be fair to employees who are close to retirement, the commission recommended a number of grandfathering and phase-in provisions.

Employees who are at least 50 years old with at least 20 years of service and employees who are 60 years old with nine years of service would be exempted from the reforms. Teachers enrolled in Retirement Plus, a provision implemented in 2001 that requires teachers to contribute an extra 2 percent to their pensions, would be able to retire at age 57, three years before their Group 1 colleagues, if they have hit the statutory maximum of 80 percent of their pension.

In order to recognize the impact these changes would have on future retirees, the commission recommended a three-year moratorium, beginning on Jan. 1, on changes to the premium contribution split. On average, municipalities pay 75 percent of the premium for retiree health insurance, with a minimum of 50 percent.

The commission also recommended that communities be required to cover health insurance for surviving spouses at a minimum level of 50 percent. Approximately 40 municipalities in Massachusetts don’t contribute to the premium for surviving spouses. If the additional cost of covering these surviving spouses exceeds 50 percent of the savings from the OPEB reforms, the state would cover the difference.

Lastly, the commission recommended a series of best practices and possible future reforms, including amending Chapter 32B, Section 9A1/2, which allows communities to charge back other communities for a portion of a retiree’s health insurance, to make the process easier to use; and changing procedures of the State Retirement Benefits Trust Fund to make it more accessible to municipalities.

As a best practice, the commission report recommended that municipalities periodically put retiree health insurance out to bid.

The commission, interested in the fiscal sustainability of its proposed reforms, included provisions for periodic review, using a benchmark of “sustainable spending growth.” If growth exceeds a benchmark of 4 percent for the state and 3.25 percent for municipalities, measures would kick in to help further control costs.

Back in February of 2011 the Tribune wrote an editorial talking about the dangers to municipalities of the OPEB liabilities. OPEB liabilities locally are enormous, and would require major increases in spending to satisfy a full funding schedule. From that Tribune editorial:

A more realistic, and much more painful, scenario came from Methuen Mayor William Manzi, where the city’s liability is about $210 million. He said a study showed that the city could fund its obligations in 30 years if it started by setting aside $4.3 million in 2009 and added more than $4 million every year until 2038.

Some of the OPEB liabilities of local cities:

Lowell: $432,752,000
Methuen: $209,816,000
Haverhill: $299,042
Lawrence: $323,977,000

It is a major problem, with staggering implications for local and state government. The recommendations of the Commission for these changes were endorsed by the organized labor representatives to the Board, but rejected by the Massachusetts Municipal Association. The MMA issued a statement on the recommendations:

Cities and towns are committed to providing quality health care benefits for their retired employees, and it is important to recognize that the current system must be reformed to make it sustainable and affordable for taxpayers, municipal workers, and present and future retirees. Without effective reform that provides meaningful savings now, the cost of the system will soon spiral out of control and consume a larger and larger share of local budgets, forcing cutbacks in essential services and increasing a property tax burden that is already too high.

The Massachusetts Municipal Association appreciates the initial steps toward reform that have been offered by the OPEB Commission and endorsed by Gov. Deval Patrick and others. There are many elements of the proposal that we strongly support, and we look forward to working with the administration, Legislature and all stakeholders to achieve reform this year.

We cannot endorse the full package offered by the commission for two reasons.

First, although the proponents are predicting that cities and towns could save between $9 billion and $12 billion over the next 30 years, almost all of this savings would be delayed by more than a decade. Only 5 percent of the savings would be achieved in the next 10 years, and 95 percent of the savings would not be realized until 2024 and beyond. Cities and towns cannot wait 10 years for meaningful savings – especially since municipal retiree health costs are expected to grow by at least 50 percent over the next decade. Retiree health reform must offer immediate relief, otherwise OPEB costs will expand and squeeze out education, public safety and other vital services from local budgets.

Second, the legislation would impose a three-year moratorium on any changes to the percentage contribution paid by retirees, and after that, it would permanently strip cities and towns of their existing ability to adjust the premium percentage for anyone who has already retired, even for those who receive generous pensions. This proposal would effectively eliminate the most important tool that cities and towns can use to carefully manage the cost of retiree health benefits.

Again, we applaud Gov. Patrick and the members of the commission for recognizing that Massachusetts must take steps to reform the retiree health insurance system. We look forward to working with all parties to build on the commission’s recommendations so that the final product provides communities and taxpayers with immediate and meaningful savings and provides employees and retirees with an affordable and sustainable system that provides excellent benefits.

It is likely that we will see some legislative action on the Commission recommendations this year. I anticipate more weight will be given to the Committee recommendations than to the MMA position, but it will be very interesting, especially in light of all the other heavy lifting that the Legislature is facing this session. As far as municipal finance goes there is not a more important issue.

Link to the OPEB Commission report here.

Link to the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation Report here.

Link to the MMA Presentation to the OPEB Commission here.

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President Obama's Inaugural Address

President Barack Hussein Obama, the 44th President of the United States, delivered his inaugural address today. The President, in my biased view, gave a wonderful speech that laid down some markers, mentioning Social Security and Medicare, equal rights for gays, and equal pay for women, as well as global warming. He laid out a vision of an active government working for the common good, and to the chagrin of Republicans had the nerve to lay out a value system based on what he stood for in the campaign. Republicans actually had the nerve to say that the President did not come forward in a spirit of compromise. From Politico:

“The words were code for a progressive agenda. I’m hoping that the president will recognize that compromise should have been the words for today, and they clearly weren’t,” said Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), a frequent Obama critic who has zealously pursued a contempt case against Attorney General Eric Holder.

Imagine Darrell Issa of all people saying that compromise is the word of the day. The President has taken plenty of criticism during his first term from his own party for his willingness to attempt bipartisan compromise. But as he has repeatedly found out he has no partner that can actually deliver substantive compromise. You do not have to be a partisan Democrat to understand that for better or worse the Republican Congressional Leadership, in 2011, made the calculated gamble that compromise would not be a part of their program. They felt that they could hold out for the whole enchilada by beating the President in 2012. It was a calculated risk, and they lost. Since then the Republican House majority, by any standard that I understand, has made asses of themselves. Speaker Boehner could not deliver a cup of coffee, much less a “grand bargain”. His marginalization comes not from Barack Obama but rather from his own caucus. They lost the gamble in 2011, and are in shambles today. The President will plunge forward and work towards realizing the values that he ran on, and won on. That may seem like partisanship to Republicans, but maybe they should have thought about that in 2011.

http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1

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More on the Governor's Revenue Proposals

Governor Patrick, as we know, outlined a very ambitious agenda for revenues and new spending on infrastructure and education in his State of the Commonwealth speech last week. The Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center has come out with an analysis of the Governor’s proposals that is fairly detailed. Let us take a look at some of what the Governor is trying to accomplish, without the politics.

As the Governor began this process the goal was (nominally) to fix the large structural deficit that everyone involved acknowledged we had in transportation. That deficit involved far more than the MBTA. It includes the money to repair roads and bridges, and to allow our road system, as well as our mass transit systems, to have enough funding to bring both into a “state of good repair”. Are you angry about some of the performance problems at the T? Well many of those issues center around poor, outdated equipment that the T is using due to lack of capital funds.

How bad is it? Capital funds are being used to pay employees, which means that we are incurring interest costs for every day work at the Department of Transportation. The Governor has invested in road and bridge repair, but we simply cannot keep up within the current revenue stream. So his commitment of dollars there has been insufficient, a fact with which I think the Governor would readily agree.

So the Governor, as he had two years back, was looking to plug an obvious hole. But rather than play for the short ball the Governor decided to add education, and new transportation spending, and go for the gusto. His proposal would transform the sales tax, alternately lowering it, but rededicating all of it to school building and transportation. (The Massachusetts School Building Authority would continue to receive 1 penny of the sales tax revenue.)He in essence replaces some of that revenue, and pays for additional education and transportation spending, by increasing the income tax from 5.25% to 6.25%. That is about a 19% increase in the relative tax burden.

But the Governor does not stop there. He looks to add some provisions that would make the income tax slightly progressive, by doubling the Personal Exemption, from $4400 to $8800 (single filers) and from $8800 to $17,600 (for married filers). The Governor would also eliminate a host of income tax deductions in the code, with the bottom line being that higher income earners would feel more of a pinch from this increase than folks who earn less. If enacted in that fashion it would almost certainly be subject to a court challenge on Massachusetts constitutional grounds. But that is a story for another day.

The Governor has identified the new Transportation projects he is looking to fund in this package, and it is a pretty big group. From the Budget and Policy Center:

Specific projects funded under this proposal include improving highway interchanges; increasing annual funding for Regional Transit Authorities; resurfacing several major roadways; completing the Green Line extension into Somerville and Medford; connecting rail service between Springfield and Boston, Boston and Hyannis, and Pittsfield and New York City; replacing outdated buses and Red, Orange, and Green Line cars; completing the South Coast rail extension; and expanding South Station.

The Governor, in his many stops after the speech, has defended the proposal on taxes as “bringing choices to the table”. I recognize that the Governor’s proposal is very likely to be scaled back in the Legislature. But what I consider to be important is the concept that the Governor starkly brings forward. If you want it you must pay for it. If the Legislature scales back the revenues they will have to scale back the investments, unless they can find other revenues that nobody is aware of. Over at the conservative Pioneer Institute Jim Stergios has written, and talked about, the Governor’s proposal. Stergios is against, but he does talk in terms that I can understand. He openly says two things that I consider important.

1) That a major part of our existing transportation finance problems come from “expansion spending” that would have been better spent on maintenance. From the Pioneer website:

Just as the Big Dig drained money from other state road projects, new transit lines diverted funds from maintenance to expansion. Today, nearly half the MBTA’s $8.6 billion debt can be traced to building, operating, maintaining and paying debt service on those projects. So can much of the T’s $3 billion maintenance backlog.

I happen to agree with Stergios here. If a project must be done then it should be paid for. I may not agree with Stergios on the relative merits of the projects he includes on that list, but his point is well taken, and the idea that transit expansion can be done for nothing has put us in this mess. In making his filing in this fashion the Governor appears to agree as well.

2) The Governor’s new list of transportation “expansion” projects is also undeserving of new dollars. From Pioneer:

We need to stop calling the same old political projects “transportation needs.”

Compounding past mistakes, the report includes no mention of what these projects will cost to operate and maintain over their lifetime, instead focusing only on construction costs over the next decade.

The $1.02 billion annual number is hyper-inflated with a wish list that includes South Coast commuter rail, passenger rail from Boston to both Springfield and Cape Cod, and even between the Berkshires and New York City, over $40 million a year for bike and pedestrian projects, a doubling of Chapter 90 local project funding.

That debate will now be had. But Governor Patrick has placed that debate on a new, higher plane. And the Governor, while being a strong advocate for his own transportation spending recommendations, has also struck what so far seems to be an unnoticed blow for fiscal responsibility in transit spending. If you want it you must pay for it. And the Governor is willing to step up and have that debate. After you look at this you realize that on fundamental principles maybe the Governor and Jim Stergios are not that far apart. And that principle will force the Legislature, like it or not, to make some very difficult choices in the months ahead.

A clip from Michael Widmer of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation is below. Mr. Widmer was a member of the Transportation Finance Commission, and is a budget and policy analyst without peer.

http://www.necn.com/common/thePlatform/web_45/swf/flvPlayer.swf

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Governor Patrick Goes Long, and Local Reaction

Governor Patrick unveiled his finance plans for transportation and education during his state of the state address Wednesday night, putting together a package that includes a cut to the sales tax, and an increase in the income tax. I have done a post on this before the speech which which looked at the menu of options that Governor Patrick had laid out. Now we have the plan, which not only seeks to stabilize our rickety transportation system but to increase investment in that sector by financing projects that the Governor feels the Commonwealth needs. I hope to have a separate post that will look at some of the key data involved in this plan in the next few days, but for now let us focus on the politics, and initial local reaction.

The Eagle Tribune ran a story asking local legislators for their initial reaction to the Governor’s proposals, and locally there was not a bunch of enthusiasm shown. Democratic Senator Barry Finegold expressed reservations about increasing the income tax, and has in the past been a vocal critic of the MBTA. Republican Rep. Jim Lyons was not supportive, and looks to take additional investment out of the existing budget. A very key player is House Ways and Means Chair Brian Dempsey (D-Haverhill), who was non-committal. Democratic Rep. Linda Dean Campbell spoke out forcefully against the Governor’s plan. From the Tribune.

State Rep. Linda Dean Campbell, D-Methuen, said Patrick’s plan is “too expensive and risky.”

“We need to remember unemployment is still high and we have some big health care expenses coming up,” Dean Campbell said. “The Legislature and the governor have done some good work recently cutting spending and building our reserves, that’s what needs to continue. … Our transportation problems have built up over a decade. We’re not going to solve them overnight.”

In the past, Dean Campbell said she opposed attempts to increase gas and sales taxes, but that she would potentially consider a modest increase to the income tax or increasing tolls on state roadways to pay for important initiatives.

“It’s the fairest tax if we have to raise taxes,” she said of the income tax. “But we have to be careful not to derail our slow recovery and go backwards. The governor’s timing is off for these ambitious educational and transportation plans. He needs to go slower.”

State Senator Kathleen Ives was non-committal, and Methuen Rep. Diana DiZoglio was not a part of this Tribune story.

At least in the Merrimack Valley the Governor starts out from behind. But let us not count the Governor out up here just yet. He visited Haverhill this week and toured some key economic development sites, with Mayor Fiorentini hosting, along with Ways and Means Chair Dempsey. and the rest of the legislative delegation. And the Governor, to his credit, has placed some pretty large enticements into the package, including a substantial lowering of the sales tax, which will only help border communities. His inclusion of extra monies for the Merrimack Valley Regional Transit Authority, and additional Chapter 90 money for localities, means that there will need to be some big decisions made as the Legislative process begins to work. And that process will bring some counter pressure on legislators to consider including, and paying for, some of the items that clearly benefit the region. The Governor was also scheduled to visit the home town of Senate Ways and Means Chair Senator Stephen Brewer today, as well as other stops, and he brings with him projects that legislators have been clamoring for. The Governor, in his own way, is showing that there is no free lunch. And that, from a fiscal responsibility standpoint, is critical to understand. A major part of our fiscal problem, as a Commonwealth and as a nation, comes from thinking that you can have major projects that do not have to be paid for. It is not, and has never been, true. The State House News Service captured the conundrum for legislators this relatively simple concept has created.

“To say, “Hell no, we won’t go,’ isn’t necessarily a good vetting process,” said Sen. Brewer, the recipient of a Patrick visit on Friday to tout investments in infrastructure.

Rep. Patricia Haddad, a Somerset Democrat and top deputy to House Speaker Robert DeLeo, summed up perfectly the corner Patrick has backed legislators into.

“It’s hard not to think they’re great ideas, but I do have to worry what it means for the people in my district. We have a (higher) unemployment rate than anywhere in the state, but we’re the ones who want the South Coast rail so badly, so I’m on kind of a swing,” Haddad said.

The question is how many will jump.

The Governor is very good at his job.

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