Geithner Unveils a Plan Short on Details

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner unveiled the Obama program to shore up the country’s financial system today, but key details of the plan are yet to come. The lack of detail sent stocks lower, with the Dow Jones down three hundred points. The plan is a three pronged approach. From the Wall Street Journal:

The plan, which is designed to involve a mix of government and private capital, aims to stabilize the U.S. financial system by injecting capital into banks, helping to determine prices of toxic assets weighing on firms’ balance sheets and stemming foreclosures.

But the issue of how to best value these toxic assets seems to have caused real problems in getting to what all agree is necessary; a removal of those items from the balance sheets of banks and financial institutions. Further plan details from the Journal:

As part of the administration’s broad plan, the Federal Reserve Tuesday announced that it stands ready to dramatically expand a program to boost consumer lending so that it can also help jumpstart the mortgage market.

Treasury plans to put $100 billion toward the Fed’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, as a way to leverage up to $1 trillion.

Additionally, Mr. Geithner announced plans for a public-private investment fund that would help make financing available to “help leverage private capital to help get private markets working again.” The program will be targeted to the legacy loans and assets that are now burdening financial firms, he said.

Geithner also talked about utilizing $50 billion to try to stem foreclosures, but left those details for later. From MSNBC:

In unveiling the governments’ new plan, Geithner was shortest on detail about proposed solutions to most fundamental cause of the financial meltdown — the relentless rise in foreclosures and fall in home prices. Following up on a proposal introduced in the House last month, Geithner said the new plan will include $50 billion to stop foreclosures. The details of how it will be spent, he said, would be announced “in the next few weeks.”

I have attached an executive summary of the Treasury proposal below. I am not sure they have it right, but I sure hope they do.

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financial-fact-sheet

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Obama Pitches the Stimulus

President Barack Obama held his first press conference, dealing primarily with the stimulus package due to be voted on in the Senate today. He spoke of some of the real problems that folks outside of Washington are facing, and will be traveling the country again today to talk about the government’s response. Obama dealt with questions on Republican charges of “fiscal irresponsibility.” From the Washington Post:

Obama swiftly dismissed claims of fiscal irresponsibility, saying: “It’s a little hard for me to take criticism from folks, about this recovery package, after they presided over a doubling of the national debt. I’m not sure they have a lot of credibility when it comes to fiscal responsibility.”

Yes the Republican Party, with a straight face, is now speaking of fiscal responsibility. This from a Party that controlled the Presidency and both Houses of Congress for five full years, and managed to turn a huge surplus into deficits as far as the eye can see. Maybe they have converted from the belief, expressed succinctly by former Vice President Dick Cheney, that “deficits don’t matter”. But I digress. Obama made the case that doing nothing is not an option. And I truly believe the American people are with him on that score. The stimulus package survived its first test yesterday, surviving with three Republican votes: Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and Arlen Specter of PA. Final passage should come today in the Senate. Then the heavy lifting of hashing out the differences with the House in conference.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/mmedia/player/wpniplayer_viral.swf?thisObj=fo682053&vid=020909-9v_title

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The Gas Tax Trial Balloon

A leak out of the Patrick Administration yesterday floated the potential for a gas tax hike of 27 cents per gallon to deal with the state’s transportation system financing. AP reported that figure, citing an internal memo that had been leaked to them. Administration officials, refusing to go on record, said that a gas tax increase was only a potential part of their forthcoming transportation package, and that “potential” ran from 5 cents to 29 cents per gallon. At 29 cents Massachusetts would have the highest state gas tax in the country, eclipsing New York. This leak seemed to catch the Legislature by suprise, with House Transportation Chair Joe Wagoner and Senate President Therese Murray both expressing suprise. Wagoner and Murray both rejected the notion that the transportation system could deal with revenues absent a full legislative package, which the Governor has yet to file. From the Globe:

“I come from the school where the number one rule is no surprises,” said Representative Joseph Wagner, a Democrat from Chicopee who has been the House’s top transportation official. “These proposals are surprises. It’s not my preferred way of doing business.

“Perhaps it’s time for the administration to forward to the Legislature a proposal for reform,” he added. “Then we won’t see piecemeal things going on with tolls and taxes without any substance of proposed legislation.”

Murray expressed the same type of thought:

Senate President Therese Murray, who has not seen any plans and said the governor did not bring it up yesterday in a leadership meeting, also offered a tepid response.

“We’ve been very clear: reform before revenue,” Murray said in an interview. “There hasn’t been any reform. We filed a 268-page reform, and we expect it to be looked at and enacted before we go to revenue.”

Looks like the Governor has some work to do with key legislators on his ideas in this area. The Senate, with its proposal for reform, has boxed in the Governor and the House, leaving them to deal with the issue of revenues. Senate President Murray and Transportation Chair Steve Baddour deserve credit for dealing with administrative reforms that are an absolutely essential part of any transportation package. They also should get a nod of recognition for outflanking the Governor politically on this issue.

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Florida Governor Charlie Crist to Join Obama

As President Obama travels to Florida tommorow to pitch the economoic stimulus package he will be introduced at a town hall style meeting by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Republican. Crist issued a statement:

“Florida has taken prudent steps to cut taxes for our people and balance our budget in these increasingly difficult times. Any attempts at federal stimulus must prioritize job creation and targeted tax relief for small business owners. I am eager to welcome President Obama to the Sunshine State as he continues to work hard to reignite the US economy.”

Crist has been an outspoken supporter of the federal stimulus bill, joining other Republican Governor’s in pushing for federal relief. I wonder if a couple of Republican Governor’s who have said they are not in favor will turn down the federal assistance if this bill passes. Any takers on that one? Sanford of South Carolina ans Barbour of Mississippi come to mind.

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Baddour Files Mass Trans Bill

Senator Steve Baddour has filed the legislative act to codify the concepts he announced last month with Senate President Therese Murray. I have attached the act as a pdf, but I have not as of yet seen an executive summary. I will post that as it becomes available. Baddour still does not address revenues, but looks for administrative savings through consolidations and efficiencies. Governor Patrick still has not filed his transportation package yet, and it appears that the toll hikes announced by the Mass Pike will not be implemented until the Governor files his bill.

mass-trans-for-tomorrow

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Krugman’s Initial Analysis, and This Week

New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman has weighed in on his blog this morning on the Senate version of the stimulus. He takes dead aim at the “centrist” compromise that would tear out aid to states and seems to take some perverse pride in attacking aid to education. From Krugman:

The short answer: to appease the centrists, a plan that was already too small and too focused on ineffective tax cuts has been made significantly smaller, and even more focused on tax cuts.

According to the CBO’s estimates, we’re facing an output shortfall of almost 14% of GDP over the next two years, or around $2 trillion. Others, such as Goldman Sachs, are even more pessimistic. So the original $800 billion plan was too small, especially because a substantial share consisted of tax cuts that probably would have added little to demand. The plan should have been at least 50% larger.

Now the centrists have shaved off $86 billion in spending — much of it among the most effective and most needed parts of the plan. In particular, aid to state governments, which are in desperate straits, is both fast — because it prevents spending cuts rather than having to start up new projects — and effective, because it would in fact be spent; plus state and local governments are cutting back on essentials, so the social value of this spending would be high. But in the name of mighty centrism, $40 billion of that aid has been cut out.

My first cut says that the changes to the Senate bill will ensure that we have at least 600,000 fewer Americans employed over the next two years.

We had Michael Steele, the new Chair of the RNC, on the air with George Stephanopoulos, saying that Republicans do not support job creation through any stimulus package because these jobs, like construction jobs to build schools, would be “temporary”, and would not have been created by the private sector. When Stephanopoulos pointed out that the private sector has shed millions of jobs recently Steele seemed confused.

The roundtable on “This Week” had George Will pointing out something that we should all start embracing. He said that there are differences between the Parties, and that Republicans ought not to be expected to agree with Democrats, but to offer their own ideas. If Michael Steele is doing that offering then Democrats ought to be highlighting Steele’s prescription for the economy, which is to leave people out of work until the private sector gets around to hiring them. Spend money to fix roads, bridges, and schools? Nope. Those construction jobs would only be “temporary”. The Republicans could be the best sales force Barack Obama has for this package. Democrats ought to be on the air in Ohio and Florida right now, driving home the Republicans desire to leave people out of work. Just putting Steele’s words out there should be enough to create a firestorm.

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California Closes State Offices

The State of California, rapidly becoming an economic basket case, has imposed furloughs on state employees that have necessitated the closure of state offices throughout California on a rolling basis. From the New York Times:

Californians looking to renew driver’s licenses, take tests for state jobs, file claims or seek many other services found themselves out of luck Friday. By early morning, about a dozen people stood on the sidewalk outside a Los Angeles high-rise where the Department of Industrial Relations is located. Five had planned to take an exam in an effort to register as garment workers.

“Why this office?” said Lisa Bacaro, 32, who had taken the morning off to take the exam. “In hard times, why can’t they close a different office? This is where people come for help with jobs. I am trying to take this test to start work, better work. I can’t believe this.”

California is staring down a $40 billion dollar deficit, with infighting between the Democratic Legislature and Governor Schwarzenegger leading to nothing but kicking the can down the road. Problem for California is that the road has ended. For all of our problems here the level of gross incompetence and mismanagement in California makes the Northeast states look like pikers. An absolute ideological rigidity and refusal to act in the best interests of the overall state have brought them to the brink of disaster. And for those who just continue to poo-poo the possibility of economic disaster just look at this state, and see what low quality public service will bring you.

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The President’s Weekly Radio Address

The President talks about the stimulus package, and the jobless figures that arrived yesterday. He praises the bipartisan group of centrists that appear to have reached consensus on a stimulus package, and highlights some of the massive problems in states that have Republican senators standing tall against returning people to work. Florida and Ohio were both highlighted. The President will have a news conference on Monday.

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Unemployment Numbers Rising

New figures on job losses point to continued pain for American workers, as the economy shed 598,000 jobs last month, driving the unemployment figure to 7.6%. If the current trend continues we will be at double digit unemployment in a few months. And no matter how we look at these numbers they tell a bad story. From the Washington Post:

Since the recession began in December 2007, the nation has lost more jobs as a percentage of the labor force than it had at a comparable point in the early 1980s downturn, the worst recession of the post-World War II era. The number of unemployed Americans over the past year has risen by about 4.1 million, equivalent to the entire labor force of Virginia.

“It is almost set in stone now that this will be the worst job market we’ve seen in the postwar period,” said Scott Anderson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.

All sectors are facing massive job losses, including construction.

The construction industry, which has been losing jobs since the housing slump began in late 2005 and shed 111,000 jobs in January, would also probably benefit from the stimulus package. Based on the earlier House version of the bill, Moody’s estimated that 803,000 construction jobs could be created by the end of 2012.

That would be welcome relief for an industry that has suffered with the slowdown in the building of schools, office towers, apartment buildings and shopping malls.

“Construction was slammed especially hard by the freezing of credit markets in mid-September,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America in Arlington. “Developers weren’t able to get funding. School districts that had planned to issue tax-exempt bonds [to finance building] discovered there was no market.”

Maybe someone should point out to Senator Collins of Maine that part of the downturn and job losses in construction come from an inability of local school districts to fund school construction projects because of the credit crunch. They mess it up in Washington and local school districts pay the price. Shameless. And with these jobless numbers come the stunning figures related to those who have simply dropped out of the labor force.

Last month alone, a stunning 731,000 Americans stopped looking for work, dropping out of the labor force out of apparent frustration with their employment prospects.

“In the 30-page employment report,” said Michael Feroli, a U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan Chase, “there is hardly a number that doesn’t convey the brutal conditions in the current job market.”

This stimulus is about putting real people back to work. Let the Republican Party stand tall against job creation for American workers. I wonder if those folks that have lost their jobs are looking for a tax break, or if they would prefer a job. The Party of Herbert Hoover is back.

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School Construction is Stimulus

In a true sign of just how short sighted the Republican Party is now we have the spectacle of Republican senators, including so called moderates like Susan Collins of Maine, trumpeting the fact that they are working overtime to eliminate school construction money from the stimulus bill. In one of the most ridiculous and frankly imbecilic moves I have seen in some time Republicans are now selling the notion that school construction, which employs the same construction workers that would build roads and bridges, should not be part of the stimulus because school construction has traditionally been the responsibility of state and local government. Hey Sue, thats the idea behind the stimulus. Get some construction going, and build something that has lasting and durable value to city, state, and country. Educating our kids in facilities that do not have ceiling panels falling on their heads constitutes a good use of stimulus money.

These so called “moderates” are wolves in sheeps clothing. I do not understand how the educational community in Maine is not up in arms over this outrage. And the Democrats ought to be on the air in Maine kicking the tar out of these phonies. While it appears that there is a compromise that will allow a bill to come out of the Senate the Republicans may have been successful in gutting some key provisions regarding school construction. That would be a real shame.

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