Unemployment Fund Balances Sink

With unemployment claims reaching record levels the state trust funds that provide the benefits are being rapidly depleted. From the Wall Street Journal:

Unemployment filings have soared so high in recent months that seven states have already emptied their unemployment-insurance trust funds, which were supposed to see them through recessionary periods. Another 11 states are in jeopardy of depleting reserves by year’s end, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, which published a January report entitled “The Crisis in State Unemployment Trust Funds.” So far, states have borrowed more than $2.3 billion in emergency funds from the federal government, money they are required to pay back.

States across the country are facing a depletion of unemployment trust funds, with some borrowing from the federal government to keep their systems solvent. The Journal story highlighted in more detail some of the problems facing South Carolina:

In 2001, the fund had a balance of more than $600 million, according to the governor’s office. But the fund balance began to drop precipitously three years ago, as the state began paying out more for jobless benefits. The trust fund went broke last fall.

At the request of the state’s Employment Security Commission, Gov. Mark Sanford sought an emergency loan in September from the federal government. But Mr. Sanford balked at signing a second request in December, demanding that the state agency agree to an outside audit and prove the authenticity of its data, which he routinely questions. He relented hours before the New Year’s Eve deadline in what became a well-publicized standoff.

Even with funds borrowed from the federal government it appears that South Carolina will be coming up short again, as unemployment claims continue to spike.

So far, the state has borrowed more than $110 million in emergency funds from the federal government, according to the Department of Labor. But unemployment filings are rising so rapidly that the amount requested just weeks ago for this quarter won’t meet the growing need, Mr. Halley said. The amount the state paid in benefits per week reached $20 million in January, compared with $14 million in December, Mr. Halley said.

The impasse continues as Gov. Sanford threatens to fire agency officials unless they provide data by Feb. 9 proving the legitimacy of each unemployment filing, and more details about employers.

Not many states have provisos that mandate increases in the payroll tax that funds the unemployment trusts when they fall below a certain threshhold, so it will be up to legislatures to deal with the shortfalls. The solutions require tough decisions, which means that we can almost count on no action whatsoever from legislative bodies throughout the country. Kicking the can down the road has become the favored policy prescription for so many that real solutions are not likely until disaster strikes. Read the Wall Street Journal article here.

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Guy Glodis Flexes His Fundraising Muscle

The State House News Service is reporting that an impressive group of “hosts” will be running a fundraiser next week for the High Sheriff of Worcester County, Guy Glodis. The fundraising event will be hosted by former Senate President Robert Travaligini, Lt. Governor Tim Murray, and U.S. Rep. Steve Lynch. Others listed as the “Greater Boston Friends of Guy Glodis” include Alan Solomont, Tom Finneran, Speaker Robert Deleo, Senate Ways and Means Chair Steven Panagiotakos, Tom Reilly, and a large contingent of senators and reps. The big bash will be at Anthony’s Pier 4 next Thursday. There is no word yet whether Glodis will be allowed to speak at this event.

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The Time for Action is Now

The Obama Administration, seeing momentum slip away from the stimulus package, has launched a political offensive to try to regain the high ground in this debate. The President has been wheeled out repeatedly and is now taking on Republican arguments more forcefully. Here he is at the Energy Department, where he slammed the failed and discredited Republican theory that the panacea for all problems are tax cuts. Can you imagine Republican Senators now decrying pork, when they have been larding the system up for eight years. Hypocrisy has risen to new heights within the Republican caucus. The Democratic leadership will push to pass a bill tonight. The bill can be improved in several ways, but I cannot remember the last “perfect” bill that Congress passed.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/mmedia/player/wpniplayer_viral.swf?thisObj=fo749145&vid=020509-6v_title

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Senate Dilutes Buy American Provision

The Senate, under prodding from the Obama Administration, yesterday diluted the provisions in the stimulus package mandating that bill beneficiaries “Buy American”. The White House utilized a provision that ensures that no proviso in the bill would violate existing trade pacts. From the New York Times:

The White House had been seeking assurances that any requirements barring purchases from abroad did not significantly expand existing law or violate existing trade treaties. The language approved by the Senate said such provisions should be “applied in a manner consistent with United States obligations under international agreements.”

More than 50 nations are covered by treaties with the United States, and thus may be entitled to exceptions to the restrictions. Many of those countries, and the European Union, have issued protests about the legislation.

As Obama moves away from some of the protectionist sentiment he expressed during the campaign he had a warning shot fired from Democrats concerned about protecting American jobs with the federal money spent in this bill.

Even as the protests from Europe poured in, Democratic lawmakers from steel-producing states warned Mr. Obama that if he backed away from the provisions, they would oppose the whole stimulus bill — perhaps an empty threat, but perhaps not.

“If it’s not in, I’m not supporting this package and I’ll bring a lot of votes with me,” said Representative James L. Oberstar, the Minnesota Democrat who is chairman of the House Transportation Committee.

Whether the diluted trade provision is in or out in the stimulus President Obama is going to have a tough time threading the needle on trade. There is a confrontation coming on this issue, and that looming battle is likely to be expedited by the massive job losses we are experiencing. Treaties or not it is not easily explainable to the public that U.S. tax dollars should be buying foreign iron and steel that employ workers outside the United States, especially when such products have in the past been “dumped” at below market rates onto the U.S. market. The President needs to establish firmly that free trade must mean fair trade. Protecting American jobs and what little is left of our manufacturing base will mean telling our trading partners some things they do not want to hear. That conversation must occur now.

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Buy American Provisions stir trade tensions

The stimulus bill voted out of the House of Representatives contains provisions mandating that American products, specifically iron and steel, be used in the infrastructure projects funded by the bill. These “buy American” provisions, which may be expanded upon in the Senate, have created some real tensions with our trading partners. They may also be creating some tension within the Democratic Party. Yesterday President Obama seemed to signal that these provisions might not be a good idea. From the Wall Street Journal:

Asked his views on the furor, President Obama said in separate television interviews Tuesday that he wanted to avoid any steps would “signal protectionism” or risk fueling trade tensions.

“I think that would be a mistake right now,” he told ABC News. “That is a potential source of trade wars that we can’t afford at a time when trade is sinking all across the globe.”

The E.U. seems prepared to file complaints with the W.T.O. if these provisions are contained in a final bill:

EU officials said Tuesday that the trade bloc would likely file a complaint at the World Trade Organization if the U.S. stimulus plan contains language strongly favoring U.S. suppliers. The problem, these officials said, is that a clause forcing Washington to favor U.S. goods, as some lawmakers would like, might violate agreements within the WTO that limit discrimination in government spending.

“We would have to look at our all options, including a WTO case, if ‘Buy American’ passes,” an EU official said.

Whatever the result there will no doubt be retaliation if these provisions remain. It should force us as a country to re-examine some of the trade policies that have had some real bad effects on our economy. Free trade has not always been fair trade, and our manufacturing base has been decimated as a result. A real tough call for President Obama right off the bat.

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Stimulus Bill Lacks Senate Votes

The stimulus bill passed by the House and under consideration by the Senate appears to lack sixty Senate votes as it is currently written. The issue appears to center around both the size of the bill and the sections of the bill that contain spending of a non-stimulative nature. Both Parties have members who are objecting on these grounds, and it appears that the centrists have coalesced around Ben Nelson and Susan Collins, who are working to pare spending in this bill. What are some of the spending items contained in the bill that are causing problems for this group? The Washington Post lists a few:

Among the items that the Collins-Nelson initiative is targeting: $1.1 billion for comparative medical research, $350 million for Agriculture Department computers, $75 million to discourage smoking, $20 million in Interior Department funding, $400 million for HIV screening and $650 million for wildlife management.

The Senate failed to pass a $25 billion dollar increase in highway spending within that bill, and actually rejected a tax break for film producers by a wide margin. The stimulus package will need to be cut back in order to pass, and it appears that not only will the Majority Leader need to deal with the shrunken Senate Republicans, but with moderate Dems who will not agree to some spending contained in the bill. I believe the Alice Rivlin advice given in testimony before Congress that we posted on a few days ago may be taking hold. Stay tuned for a compromise that will cut untold billions from this stimulus bill, and then receive “centrist support”. McCain’s competing bill is worth about $450 billion. The number will end up “right in the middle”.

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Obama Acknowledges “Error”

President Obama gave an interview to Brian Williams of NBC in which he acknowledged his frustration and accepted responsibility for the vetting process that failed to detect the Daschle and Geithner tax issues. The President trying to put out a brushfire and also speak to the “double standard” problem that has been created by these nominees.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/29002023#29002023.msnbcLinks {font-size:11px; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: #999; margin-top: 5px; background: transparent; text-align: center; width: 425px;} .msnbcLinks a {text-decoration:none !important; border-bottom: 1px dotted #999 !important; font-weight:normal !important; height: 13px;} .msnbcLinks a:link, .msnbcLinks a:visited {color: #5799db !important;} .msnbcLinks a:hover, .msnbcLinks a:active {color:#CC0000 !important;}

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Methuen Dems Caucus

METHUEN DEMOCRATS CONVENE ANNUAL CAUCUS
Event selects delegates for the 2009 Massachusetts State Issues Convention

Methuen – Eleni Varitimos, Chairwoman, of the Methuen Democratic Town Committee today announced that the Methuen Democratic Town Committee would be holding this year’s caucus to select delegates to the 2009 Massachusetts State Issues Convention on Saturday, February 7th in Sanborn Hall at the Quinn Building. Caucus doors will open at 9:00 a.m. and all participants must be registered by the start at 10 a.m. In order to participate, a citizen must be a Methuen resident and have been a registered Democrat by December 31st of 2008.

“This is an exciting opportunity for local Democrats to become familiar with the Democratic platform and to meet other area Democrats,” said Ms. Varitimos. “I encourage anyone who is interested in grassroots politics to attend and participate.”

The City of Methuen is able to send 23 delegates and 3 alternates to the Convention.

This year’s State Democratic Convention will be held at in Springfield, MA on Saturday, June 6th, 2009.

Anyone with questions on how to participate in the Caucus should contact Ms. Varitimos at
978-687-4533.

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Gregg Named at Commerce, Newman Named as Replacement

As expected President Obama today named Senator Judd Gregg to be Secretary of Commerce, and New Hampshire Governor John Lynch immediately named former Chief of Staff to Gregg Bonnie Newman, a Republican, to fill the vacated Senate seat. Newman, in addition to her stint with Gregg, worked for the White House of President George H.W. Bush, as well as an assistant Secretary of Commerce under President Ronald Reagan. Newman endorsed Governor Lynch in his 2004 race against the Republican nominee, heading up the “Republicans for Lynch”.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/28996355#28996355.msnbcLinks {font-size:11px; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: #999; margin-top: 5px; background: transparent; text-align: center; width: 425px;} .msnbcLinks a {text-decoration:none !important; border-bottom: 1px dotted #999 !important; font-weight:normal !important; height: 13px;} .msnbcLinks a:link, .msnbcLinks a:visited {color: #5799db !important;} .msnbcLinks a:hover, .msnbcLinks a:active {color:#CC0000 !important;}

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Tom, You’re Out!

Tom Daschle today withdrew from consideration as HHS Secretary, bowing to the mounting pressure from his tax problems. President Obama accepted Daschle’s withdrawal with the requisite “regret”. Obama also had Nancy Killefer withdraw from consideration for the job of Chief Performance Officer for the White House. Killefer apparently had tax issues as well. President Obama will now need to quickly retool his HHS selection, as this Daschle matter has set him back in a key portfolio. Daschle also resigned as the White House health Care czar, a post that did not require Senate confirmation. Hope the vetting operation sharpens up a bit for the next HHS nominee.

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