On the Trail With the Tea Party

Posted on September 17, 2010 by billmanzi

Like it or not all of the political talk these days centers around Tea Party activism and what the real ramifications are for the Republican Party. Yes I have to admit that I am getting some enjoyment from all that infighting, but lets take a bit of a longer view and try to track “Tea Party” candidates that have won Republican primaries by looking at how they are doing in their individual races. So that we are all on the same page let us define who they are. Lets look at Rand Paul in KY, Joe Miller in Alaska, Marco Rubio in FLA, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, Sharron Angle in Nevada, and Carl Paladino in NY. If you think I omitted any please let me know.

Today we start with Marco Rubio in FLA. Rubio first drove Governor Charlie Crist from the Republican Party, and is now locked in a three man race with Crist as an independent and Kendrick Meek as the Democrat. Crist has polled well, leading in some surveys, but he appears to be fading some, as Republicans coalesce around Rubio. Rasmussen has Rubio opening an 11 point lead on Crist. Those numbers are Rubio 41%, Crist 30%, and Meek 23%. With the center- left fractured (Crist has dropped strong hints that he would caucus with the Democrats if elected) Rubio is in a position to win with less than 45%. And with Crist being pounded by third party ads highlighting his “penchant”for changing positions rapidly it will be difficult (in my opinion) for Crist to close this gap. Meek may as well go home now. As much as the Republican establishment has been critical of those supporting O’Donnell in Delaware the Democrats appear to have given up a sure win seat for themselves here. No Meek in the race and Crist would have a much better chance of victory. Crist has $8 million to spend coming down the stretch, but I agree with Chris Cillizza over at the Washington Post. This race is now “lean Republican”. Here is the “Club for Growth” ad hammering Governor Charlie Crist.

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Niki Tsongas Takes to TV

Posted on September 16, 2010 by billmanzi

Niki Tsongas has her first TV ad up, and it did not take her long after the Republican nominee was chosen to get the campaign going in earnest. Jon Golnik won the Republican nomination Tuesday, and Niki is up on the air Thursday. Politically Golnik will be out-gunned financially, but will be looking to ride an anti-incumbent tide. But Tsongas will not be taking it easy. The contrasts were being drawn Wednesday. From the Tribune:

“The choice could not be clearer,” said Tsongas. “If you want someone who will stick up for Wall Street, who would privatize Social Security, who puts tax breaks for the wealthiest of Americans ahead of starting to bring down the deficit, and who hasn’t even been committed enough until just last year to the civic fabric of our communities to vote, then I am certainly not your candidate.”

When the Golnik assault comes I think it will be in the areas you would expect:health care, stimulus, and the deficit. The race in the Fifth will be a microcosm of the national battle, and will be spirited. Looking forward to the debate.

Read the Tribune story here.

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Delaware Shocker

Posted on September 15, 2010 by billmanzi

The talk of the nation is the shocking ? result in the Republican Senate primary in Delaware, where Christine O’Donnell easily defeated the Republican Party favorite Michael Castle. After the defeat of Lisa Murkowski in Alaska Gravel had gone negative in a big way on O’Donnell, receiving huge institutional Republican support. But it was all for naught, as O’Donnell cruised right past the Republican establishment into the final. And some analysts, including Karl Rove, predict that the Republicans will lose Delaware, which could be the difference between a Senate majority or continued minority status. From the New York Times:

“There’s just a lot of nutty things she’s been saying that just simply don’t add up,” Karl Rove, the Republican strategist, said in a television interview on Fox News. “I’m for the Republican, but I’ve got to tell you, we were looking at eight to nine seats in the Senate. We’re now looking at seven to eight. In my opinion, this is not a race we’re going to be able to win.”

O’Donnell was boosted by endorsements from Senator Demint, and most notably from Sarah Palin, who is a major force to be reckoned with in Republican primaries. Sarah is on a roll, but is that roll going to cost Republicans control of the Senate in 2010? Pat Buchanan, on Morning Joe, indicated two things of interest. 1) That he was personally happy that O’Donnell won 2) That winning in the general may not be the most important issue to Tea Party voters. To paraphrase Buchanan: They would rather lose with one of their own than win with one of the other guys.

I think it is obvious the Republicans just ceded the seat in Delaware. And the Democrats have to be counting their blessings, even if it is just in Delaware. Read the New York Times story here.

http://specials.washingtonpost.com/mv/embed/?title=Christine%20O'Donnell%20video%3A%20'We're%20in%20this%20to%20win%20big'&stillURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fwp-dyn%2Fcontent%2Fphoto%2F2010%2F09%2F14%2FPH2010091407999.jpg&flvURL=%2Fmedia%2F2010%2F09%2F14%2F09142010-82v.m4v&width=480&height=270&autoStart=false&clickThru=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fwp-dyn%2Fcontent%2Fvideo%2F2010%2F09%2F14%2FVI2010091407933.html

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Methuen Primary Results

Posted on September 14, 2010 by billmanzi

A quick look at primary night in Methuen. Turnout was 12.75%. Lets look at some of the key races:

Democratic Auditor:

Glodis 46.27%

Bump 34.78%

Lake 18.53%

Democratic Treasurer:

Grossman 54.76%

Murphy 44.81%

Democratic Governors Council

Manning 71.60%

Panos 28.08%

Republican Fifth Congressional:

Meas 33.18%

Golnik 30.38%

Shapiro 22.10 %

Weaver 14.05%

Republican State Senator:

Downing 80.73%

Cole 19.08%

Republican Rep 18th Essex:

Lyons Jr. 85.63%

Thorlin 14.38%

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Jerry Brown Steps in It

Posted on September 14, 2010 by billmanzi

Jerry Brown, responding to a Meg Whitman ad in California featuring Bill Clinton criticizing his record as Governor, mocked Clinton in some impromptu remarks that were taped, creating a media furor. (Both clips are below). The fight between Clinton and Brown goes back to 1992, with Brown a candidate for President and Clinton using a CNN report to essentially say Brown had misrepresented his record on taxes as Governor. (The author of the CNN report now admits that the CNN data had errors.) But Brown is running against Meg Whitman, not Bill Clinton, and he fell headlong into the trap laid out by Whitman. From Chris Cillizza:

“That evil cackling sound you hear is [Whitman chief strategist] Mike Murphy celebrating the success of the crude and cynical trap he set,” said one longtime California Democratic strategist.

The strategist added that Brown’s reaction to the Whitman ad was “clever, but strategically idiotic — it represents everything insiders simultaneously love and fear about his campaign skills and instincts.”

Ah yes Mike Murphy, a political consultant to the Republican stars (Mitt Romney and John McCain and many others) advising the well financed Meg Whitman campaign. Whitman is a Romney acolyte, and a victory by her in California would be a boon to Mitt in 2012.

Of course Brown, through his impulsive response, has allowed this to grow into a monster, and may have precluded help from the very popular in California Bill Clinton. Clinton has not spoken publicly about the Brown insult, but had endorsed San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome in the Democratic primary before Newsome pulled out. And you thought the Massachusetts race was fun?

Read “The Fix” over at the Washington Post, with some great insight into this Clinton-Brown dustup.

Mark Halperin’s take on the Clinton-Brown feud here.

The story on Brown’s apology to Bill Clinton at the Washington Post.

http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9?isVid=1

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Campaigning, With a Touch of Comedy

Posted on September 14, 2010 by billmanzi

The ad wars continue in the Governor’s race in Massachusetts, with the candidates injecting some humor and adding new websites to tweak each other. The Dems have put up a website called Charlie Baker’s World to highlight inconsistencies in his positions, while Baker took the opportunity to mark the four year anniversary of Tim Cahill endorsing Deval Patrick for Governor yesterday by sending gift baskets to the Governor and Treasurer. Fun stuff. And of course Baker put up the requisite website to “congratulate” Deval and Tim for their “marriage” of four years. Baker continues to take the time to pound Cahill, which tells us all we need to know about the Baker camps perceptions of the Cahill candidacy. And their highlighting the ‘kindness” of Governor Patrick to the Treasurer during the debate should show that the impact of candidate Cahill is the one thing Patrick and Baker agree on.

Read the Herald story on the continuing three way tussle here.

The GOP website tweaking Governor Patrick and Treasurer Cahill is here.

The Democratic Party website tweaking Charlie Baker is here.

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Boehner Buckles

Posted on September 13, 2010 by billmanzi

House Minority Leader John Boehner indicated yesterday that he would vote in favor of a tax bill that blocked extension of the so called “Bush tax cuts” for those making over $250,000 per year. Boehner was critical of that approach, but said that he would not block tax relief for all other taxpayers in order to ensure that the very top tier continued at the Bush rates. From the Washington Post:

“I want to do something for all Americans who pay taxes,” Boehner said in an interview taped Saturday for “Face the Nation” on CBS. “If the only option I have is to vote for some of those tax reductions, I’ll vote for it. … If that’s what we can get done, but I think that’s bad policy. I don’t think that’s going to help our economy.”

Boehner was clearly uncomfortable with being put into a position where Republicans would block tax relief for most Americans to protect that upper level. Boehner has been the focus of a concerted White House counter-attack on economic policy, and that attack has borne some fruit. The President will get his way on a tax bill, and the verbal tussle will continue between the White House and Boehner. The Twitter war has been ongoing for about a week. It will not abate for some time.

Read the Washington Post story here.

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The Whitman- Brown Ad War

Posted on September 13, 2010 by billmanzi

I know we have a lively Governor’s race right here in Massachusetts, but the Meg Whitman-Jerry Brown battle in California will have national repercussions. Whitman has spent about $100 million of her own money in this fight, and it is starting to get nasty. Brown is selling himself as an “outsider” with an “insiders knowledge”. Can either of these two manage to get control of California’s runaway budget process, or to bring a modicum of common sense to California’s dysfunctional legislature? Great stuff here for all of us who have been following Jerry Brown since the “early” days. Will Linda Ronstadt be anywhere near the Brown campaign?

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Governor Patrick Takes to the Air

Posted on September 11, 2010 by billmanzi

Governor Deval Patrick took to the air today, releasing his first TV spot, trying to contrast his “values” with his opponents. The Governor talked about balancing budgets, and doing so through a combination of cuts and “revenue” increases that allowed for investments to be made in public education and health care. Do the voters of the Commonwealth share those values?

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The Mayor's Corner With Guy Glodis

Posted on September 10, 2010 by billmanzi

Worcester County Sheriff and candidate for Auditor Guy Glodis was my guest on the Mayor’s Corner last week. Guy talked about the Auditor’s race and his goals for that office.

(I have endorsed Guy Glodis in this race)

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