The Fat Lady Sings- Suffolk Bellwether Poll Points to Big Markey Win

Suffolk University and pollster David Paleologos have today released a new statewide poll showing Congressman Ed Markey with a double digit lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez. The new statewide survey has Markey leading by 52% to 42%, which is less than the twenty point margins that some other polling operations are showing, but comfortable enough for pollster Paleologos to call it for Markey: From the Suffolk press release:

“These numbers suggest that tomorrow night Ed Markey will make the transformation from congressman to senator-elect,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “The only question is whether Markey’s margin over Gomez will be greater than Elizabeth Warren’s eight- point win over Scott Brown last November.”

Paleologos has also released “bellwether” numbers, with the communities of Lowell, Dartmouth, and South Hadley serving as the “bellwether” communities. From the press release:

The bellwether areas of Lowell, Dartmouth and South Hadley all pointed to a big win for Markey as well. In Lowell, Markey led 49 percent to 38 percent; in Dartmouth his lead was 52 percent to 37 percent; and in South Hadley the lead was 51 percent to 37 percent.

Some other interesting tidbits from the poll include the fact that 75% of the respondents did not see the last Markey/Gomez debate (a sign of the lack of interest) along with a drop in approval rating for President Obama, who has had soaring favorability in Massachusetts. Paleologos has the President at a 53% to 43% favorable/unfavorable, down from a high of 67% in recent Suffolk polling.

I do not have a lot of good to say about the campaign that was run by Gabriel Gomez, and that observation is not a partisan one. He ran a flat campaign, although running as a Republican in Massachusetts presents unique challenges in terms of presentation of issues, as well as being an additional vote for Mitch McConnell. Gomez is green, and without question has an attractive political resume. But he is not quite ready for prime time. Markey has done what needed to be done, and on that basis will cruise to victory. Can a Republican win a statewide seat for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts? At this point I just do not see how. Congrats to Suffolk and David Paleologos for a timely poll that likely tells us all we need to know about tomorrows election. (Today)

This entry was posted in State News, Surveys, U.S. Senate Race, Uncategorized and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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