The war for independent voters

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll has Barack Obama with an overall lead over John McCain, but with some slippage for Obama amongst independent voters. The new poll does point to some fertile ground for Obama, showing obvious discontent with President Bush. From those that disapprove of President Bush McCain draws a paltry 26 percent of the vote. Amongst the dwindling supporters of Bush McCain scores much higher at 80 percent. The tying of McCain to Bush will present McCain with some difficult political choices (alienate the base vs Bush separation) that could lead to a muddled and confusing message from the McCain campaign. From the Washington Post:

McCain will be running into stiff headwinds over the next five months. Bush’s approval rating hit another low in Post-ABC polling and now is 29 percent, with 68 percent saying they disapprove of the job he is doing — 54 percent strongly. Among the dwindling number who approve of the way Bush is handling his job, 80 percent back McCain. Among the much higher number who disapprove, 26 percent support McCain.

In general, 57 percent said McCain would continue to lead the country as Bush has and 38 percent said he would chart a new course.

Two other indicators point to problems for McCain. Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country hit an all-time high this month, with 84 percent saying the nation is now seriously on the wrong track. And asked which party they favor for the House this fall, 52 percent said Democratic and 37 percent said Republican.

McCain has solidified Republican support more effectively than Obama has solidified Democratic support, but based on an overall increase in Democratic numbers will need to win amongst those fabled “independent” voters.

McCain needs support from independents because in recent elections, partisans have overwhelmingly supported their own party’s candidates, and self-identified Democrats now outnumber Republicans. If Obama is able to consolidate Democratic voters, McCain will need to capture a sizable percentage of independents to win the White House.

The survey shows some small independent movement towards McCain, but has warning signs for him as well.

Obama and McCain are even among political independents, a shift toward the presumptive Republican nominee over the past month. On the issues, independents see McCain as more credible on fighting terrorism and are split evenly on who is the stronger leader and better on the Iraq war. But on other key attributes and issues — including the economy — Obama has advantages among independents.

A jump ball right now, and although an overall measure the electoral college is what really matters. Time for a battleground state analysis. Stay tuned.

Read the entire Washington Post story here.

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1 Response to The war for independent voters

  1. Jules Gordon says:

    Your Honor,
    Just checked congress’s approval rating, the home and accomplishments of both candidates.

    It ranged from 13 to 25 percent approval.

    This race will turn on events that have not happened yet, or existing ones that moderate or disappear.

    Economy, security and War status are three biggest.

    It’s like a basketball game. Wait for the last 10 minutes.


    PS Is it true that Nancy Pelosi is in trouble in her district for not getting anything done?

    They do eat there own in San Fransisco.


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