The Coburn Plan

Senator Tom Coburn has unveiled a plan that calls for a $9 trillion cut in the federal deficit, with deep cuts to federal programs and major changes to entitlements, but also calling for a major revamp of the tax code to eliminate tax expenditures, including subsidies to ethanol and other tax code giveaways. Coburn also calls for a trillion dollar reduction in Defense spending over ten years.

“Tax expenditures are not tax cuts,” Coburn said. “Tax expenditures are socialism and corporate welfare. Tax expenditures are increases on anyone who does not receive the benefit or can’t hire a lobbyist or special interest group to manipulate the code to their favor. Politicians love to play the tax code because it benefits the politicians. No conservative should support Washington choosing winners and losers in the tax code.”

So Coburn attacks the sacred cows of both Democrats and Republicans, (a man I like more and more) and is feeling the heat already from Grover Norquist. The Norquist sponsored Americans for Tax Reform web site unleashed a volley against the plan:

There is no rate reduction whatsoever in this plan. It’s a set of tax hikes, plain and simple. There is no tax reform in this plan. The plan would undermine prospects for long-term tax reform. By voluntarily taking $1 trillion of tax deductions and credits away now to pay for Congressional over-spending, there’s $1 trillion less to trade with for lower rates later.

I have not read the plan, nor seen any analysis, but I am prepared to say that this is the framework Republicans should have been working under in their negotiations with the President on the debt ceiling. Trading steep spending cuts for tax code changes that produce revenue, which would be earmarked for deficit reduction. Including defense in the program cuts instead of throwing more borrowed money at the Pentagon. Can’t say that the President would have agreed to a 7 to 1 ratio of spending cuts to revenue increases, but Republicans would have been able to occupy some of the political high ground now held exclusively by the President.

Coburn’s plan, whatever its relative merits, is going nowhere fast. But we should not dismiss the Coburn framework, which essentially builds upon Simpson-Bowles. There are ways that we can make progress on the deficit, but both parties need to be willing to make some concessions to achieve that goal. Of course that assumes that deficit reduction is the goal.

The Coburn Plan Executive Summary is below:

Washington is again waiting until the last minute to avoid a “crisis”— a crisis foreseen years in advance and created by Congress itself. For far too long, Washington politicians from both
parties have spent money we do not have for things we do not need. As a result, the national debt
now exceeds $14 trillion, $4 trillion of which was added in just the past three years. Now those who created this debt want us to believe the only solution is to simply borrow more money.

But any debt increase not accompanied with meaningful savings will only temporarily postpone the inevitable. Real choices must be made to reduce spending, increase revenues, or both. If Washington does not begin making these difficult choices today, those decisions will be made for us tomorrow and the results could be catastrophic. The only guaranteed entitlements for future generations will be debt and lower standards of living.

Our increasing government debt will “result in lower incomes than would otherwise occur, making future generations worse off,” warns the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. “Higher debt would make it harder for policymakers to respond to unexpected problems, such as financial crises, recessions, and wars. Higher debt would increase the likelihood of a fiscal crisis, in which investors would lose confidence in the government’s ability to manage its budget and the government would thereby lose its ability to borrow at affordable interest rates.”

Special interests and politicians would have us believe any proposed savings resulting from reducing spending will unfairly harm the disadvantaged. This is absolutely not true. The federal budget is bloated with hundreds of billions of dollars of waste, fraud and duplication.

Consolidating overlapping programs can actually improve efficiency while reducing costs. A recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) report exposed how duplication within the federal government is wasting hundreds of billions of dollars every year. “This fragmentation can create difficulties for people in accessing services as well as administrative burdens for providers who must navigate various application requirements,” GAO noted. “The lack of coordination” caused by duplication poses a “barrier to the delivery of services” to those in need, according to GAO.

Improving the management of programs can also save billions of dollars. The federal government is overpaying pharmaceutical companies nearly $4 million a month for drugs provided by some federal health programs, for example. Likewise, Washington paid over $1 billion in benefits to the deceased over the past decade. Fixing these and other mismanagement will not only save tax dollars, but also ensure more, rather than less, resources to provide aid to eligible beneficiaries.

But in this era of trillion dollar annual deficits, even saving hundreds of billions of dollars is not enough. Tough choices will still be necessary. Everyone is going to feel a pinch. For some it may be a sting. Everyone will be asked to do more with less. This includes Members of Congress, government employees and contractors, millionaires, and even the White House and Pentagon. We are all in this together and, therefore, we all must be part of the solution.

When we are borrowing forty cents for every dollar we spend, we cannot afford excuses. We must review every department, every program, and every expenditure for potential savings. If you cannot find waste in any part of the federal budget, whether health care programs, defense spending, or even the tax code, it can only be for one reason—you have not looked.

The federal government has become so large, it is impossible to grasp its true size and scope
or to pay for its costs. Nearly every corner of the federal government is rife with duplication,
mismanagement, and special interest carve outs. Each is protected by an entrenched bureaucracy, a
well financed lobbying group, an active and organized constituency, and an entrenched politician,
which time and again align to best any efforts to reform, cut, or eliminate government waste.
Perhaps there is no better recent example of this phenomenon then when only 15 of 100 senators
voted to defund the infamous Bridge to Nowhere in Alaska which had become the national symbol
of government waste.

Eventually commonsense prevailed when taxpayer outrage accomplished what a vote in the
Senate could not. Not only was the bridge stopped, the entire favor factory within Congress that
allowed lawmakers to dole out tax dollars to special interests for parochial pet projects long
defended by politicians in both parties was shut down. A decade earlier, similar widespread public
demand forced Washington to overhaul welfare. These efforts, both of which were made possible with bipartisan support, are the models for returning fiscal sanity to our nation’s budget. The public is again demanding action but Washington is playing a game of partisan budget brinksmanship. The problems we face are too big to be caught up in political posturing and they will not be solved without the cooperation of members of both parties.

Most of our excesses are the result of decades of Congress overstepping the limited powers
granted to the federal government by the U.S. Constitution. Government is so vast, complicated,
and protected by special interests, it has become nearly impossible for even most lawmakers to
navigate. As a result, overly simplistic solutions that will not solve the problem are being proposed,
such as “capping” spending at unsustainable levels, reforms to the budget process that cannot
guarantee spending reductions, raising taxes on millionaires, or increasing the government’s borrowing authority.

A thorough review of the entire federal budget is long overdue. Such an evaluation should
not be seen through political or ideological lenses, but as a practical evaluation: What works and
what does not? What is a priority and what is not? What is in the national interest and is a special
interest? What is necessary today and what has become obsolete? And what is efficient and what is
wasteful?

This report does just that. It provides a plan to put the U.S. back in black by identifying $9 trillion in very specific savings that can be achieved over the next decade. These savings are derived from consolidating duplication, weeding out waste, eliminating special interest subsidies, reducing overhead costs, demanding results, and setting priorities.

This plan recognizes all spending is not created equal by asking those with more to take less
to ensure those who gave more will not be left with nothing. It ensures health care for wounded
combat veterans, while ending unemployment benefits for jobless millionaires.

It ensures initiatives benefitting all Americans continue to receive sufficient support while
eliminating those benefitting a select few. Medical research to unlock cures for cancer and other
afflictions conducted by the National Institutes of Health would continue to receive modest funding
increases every year, while tax breaks for Hollywood movie producers would be ended.

Social Security is protected for future generations by giving more to those with less and less
to those with more. The life of Medicare is extended without changing the fundamentals of the
program. Our national defense is protected while eliminating over $1 trillion in Pentagon waste and
excess. Foreign aid to nations who are making money by loaning the money back to us is cut off
while maintaining our commitments to our allies and needy nations who rely upon our continued
generosity to combat disease and poverty.

The debt is the real threat to our future and our national security. More than $1.5 trillion is projected to be added to our $14.4 trillion national debt every year for the foreseeable future. These colossal amounts are dwarfed by the $61.6 trillion in additional unfunded obligations promised by the federal government. These commitments include Social Security payments and federal retirement programs, which have been raided by Congress to pay for other programs.

We cannot guarantee retirement programs for the elderly, protect the safety net for the poor,
or preserve the American Dream for future generations if we do not end Washington’s unsustainable borrowing and spending. While the federal government is bailing out banks, corporations, and government programs and trust funds, we are bankrupting our nation in the process and there is no one who can bail us out when that happens.

To avoid such a catastrophe, this report provides perhaps the most detailed deficit reduction
plan ever proposed. It is the result of a thorough review of every federal department, agency,
program, and mission. It does not rely on gimmicks. It does not postpone spending cuts to future
years. It does not defer decisions to commissions or future generations. It provides honest and
thoughtful reasons for savings everywhere in the federal government, from entitlement programs to
defense spending, and even the tax code, based upon facts rather than ideology or political posturing.

Taken together, this report provides a balanced plan that protects our priorities but asks
every American to make some sacrifices today to ensure future opportunities for our children and
grandchildren.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/videoLibrary/assets/swf/CSPANPlayer.swf?pid=300564-1

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Kasey Walko is July Artist of the Month

Mayor William M. Manzi has named Kasey Walko as July’s Artist of the Month.

Kasey is a recent graduate of Methuen High School where she received high honors in academics and was a member of the National Art Honor Society. She is a member of the Art Institute Group of
Merrimack Valley.

Kasey has exhibited her work with the Art Institute Group of Merrimack Valley for the Art at the Library and Art at Mann’s Orchard shows. She has also exhibited her work at the New Hampshire Institute of Art High School Drawing Exhibition, the Greater Lawrence Educational Collaborative Art Show, and the Methuen Schools Art Show. Kasey is a Gold Key winner of the Boston Globe Scholastic Art and Writing Award and attended Art All-State last year at the Worchester Art Museum. Over the summer she will be working at the Essex Art Center as the Intern Coordinator and she will begin attending Massachusetts College of Art and Design in the Fall to study Illustration and Art Education.

Mayor Manzi stated, “I’d like to thank Kasey for her participation in this program. She is one of the many talented young painters working in our community. It is an honor to display her artwork. I encourage people to come to my office and view her paintings.”

The Methuen Artist of the Month Program was created by Mayor Manzi five years ago in order to give members of the Methuen Arts Community a forum to display their work and to encourage participation in Methuen’s growing creative economy. Methuen artists interested in being considered for Artist of the Month should contact the Mayor’s Office.

Kasey Walko is July Artist of the Month

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Fleeing the Pamplona Bulls

With real progress on the debt ceiling issue just not happening, and with time running out all sides appear to be focused on the McConnell plan as the escape hatch that will allow the U.S. Government to avoid default. The credit rating agencies, looking at the stalemate in Washington, have publicly indicated that a credit downgrade may be right around the corner. From the Wall Street Journal:

Moody’s Investors Service said it was reviewing the government’s top Aaa bond rating for a possible downgrade, citing the “rising possibility” that the government’s $14.29 trillion borrowing limit won’t be raised soon enough to prevent the U.S. from running out of money to pay its bills.

And on Friday, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s threatened to downgrade U.S. government debt from AAA, saying there is at least a 50-50 chance it will cut the top-notch rating on long-term Treasurys in the next three months. The risk of default is “small, though increasing,” S&P said Friday.

But despite warnings from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Secretary of the Treasury, and most sane economists there are many Republicans in the House that just don’t want to believe it. Some have even said that a failure to act will lift our credit rating. From the Washington Post:

Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), another freshman, said that a much bigger fear was that raising the debt ceiling would enable Washington to spend itself into paralyzing debt in a few years.

“A debt-ceiling problem, as large as it is, is not anywhere near as a big or as bad as” that, Brooks said. If Aug. 2 arrives without a deal, Brooks said, the federal government could continue paying creditors. He said that a show of tough fiscal self-discipline could actually improve creditors’ confidence.

“There should be no default on August 2,” Brooks said. “In fact, our credit rating should be improved by not raising the debt ceiling.”

I am not sure what you can say to that, except WOW! Speaker Boehner certainly has his work cut out for him.

But I digress. Back to the McConnell plan, which has split Republicans badly. The Club for Growth has unleashed a new ad calling out Republicans, urging them to stand firm against raising the debt ceiling. The Club is clearly targeting the McConnell Plan. But over at the Wall Street Journal they have correctly assessed the situation, and are urging the more rabid Republicans to tone it down, and prepare for raising the ceiling.

Instead he and Mr. Geithner will gradually shut down government services, the more painful the better. The polls that now find that voters oppose a debt-limit increase will turn on a dime when Americans start learning that they won’t get Social Security checks. Republicans will then run like they’re fleeing the Pamplona bulls, and chaotic retreats are the ugliest kind. By then they might end up having to vote for a debt-limit increase and a tax increase.

The tea party/talk-radio expectations for what Republicans can accomplish over the debt-limit showdown have always been unrealistic. As former Senator Phil Gramm once told us, never take a hostage you’re not prepared to shoot. Republicans aren’t prepared to stop a debt-limit increase because the political costs are unbearable. Republicans might have played this game better, but the truth is that Mr. Obama has more cards to play.

Yup, that is about right. The Republicans who don’t know any better may have actually believed some of the rhetoric that led them to take the debt ceiling vote “as a hostage”. But McConnell and other Republican leaders understand the gravity of the situation, as well as the potential for the “destruction of the Republican brand” if Republicans force a sovereign debt default. McConnell is not quite as ready as the Club for Growth to “shoot the hostage”. We can only hope that the Republicans in the House come to their senses before they have to flee the “Pamplona Bulls”.

In terms of how the Republicans really feel about the deficit take a look at the Grover Norquist interview below. At 8:56 of that clip Norquist explains that the deficit is not an issue for Republicans, saying that borrowing $10 on a bill of $100 may be preferable to taxing for that imaginary ten-spot. For Norquist and most Republicans cutting taxes is where it is at, not cutting deficits. Norquist’s war with Republican budget hawk Tom Coburn over the issue of ending federal subsidies for ethanol illustrates that point exactly.

In the end the Republicans will raise the debt ceiling along the McConnell lines, whether the House Republicans like it or not. Lets hope they don’t do too much damage to the economy before they are forced to retreat.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32545640

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

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Dance to the Republican Music

With much focus on the debt ceiling debate and the Republican call for cuts to the federal budget and austerity for the American public, the group that has taken the hardest stand against raising the debt ceiling, House Republicans, passed a Defense Appropriations bill last week that RAISED defense spending by $17 billion over the prior year. That bill was worth $649 billion, but somehow, despite Republican claims that ALL spending is on the table, Defense was exempted from the budget ax. Increases in Defense spending have Republican approval, especially when we are borrowing the funds to pay the bills.

The House, in passing the bill, restored $120 million in funding for the Pentagon’s Military Bands program. The band program, in my view, is a good one. But the amendment offered was to cut the appropriation down to $200 million from $320 million. And that amendment was rejected by Republicans. And these are the guys saying they want a balanced budget amendment?????

I bumped into a new study that details the economic cost of the war commitments made by the United States in the last ten years, and the numbers are eye popping. The Brown study estimates that the ten year number is between $3.2 trillion and $4 trillion. That is just about the amount that all agree we need to cut out of the federal budget deficit in the next ten years. The Brown study estimates that federal interest payments on the borrowed money that has financed the wars is over $180 billion.

The United States paid for past wars by raising taxes and or selling war bonds. The current wars were paid for almost entirely by borrowing. This borrowing has raised the U.S. budget deficit, increased the national debt, and had othermacroeconomic effects, such as raising interest rates. The U.S. must also pay interest on the borrowed money. The interest paid on Pentagon spending alone, so far (from 2001 through FY 2011) is about $185.4 billion in constant dollars.

The Republican “deficit warriors” are not that concerned about spending, as evidenced by this Defense Appropriations process. But they certainly are playing the music of deficit reduction, while really engaged in a three card monte on the American taxpaying public.

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Methuen Municipal Candidates List

The list of municipal candidates, refreshed from my last posting. Below each office/candidate listing will be the list of those certified by the City Clerk as having submitted sufficient signatures to gain ballot access. Some candidates are in the process of being certified, so lack of certification, at this point, is not significant.

Mayor
Al Dinuccio- Ken Willette- Steve Zanni-John Cronin

Certified: Al Dinuccio- Ken Willette

Councilor at Large (Elect Three)
Jennifer Kannan*- Michael Condon- Joyce Campagnone*- Dorothy Kalil

Certified: Michael Condon

West District Councilor (Elect Two)
James Hajjar* -Sean Fountain -Jeanne Pappalardo*

Certified: None

East District Councilor (Elect Two)
Joseph Leone- Ron Marsan-Patricia Uliano*- Tom Ciulla

Certified: Patricia Uliano

Central District Councilor (Elect Two)
David Lavalee- Fadi Chahine- Lisa Yarid Ferry- Jamie Atkinson

Certified: None

Methuen School Committee (Elect Six)
Robert Vogler*- Barbara Grondine*- Lynn Hajjar Kumm- Mary Jean Fawcett- Jeri-An Batal- Lorie Aliano- Paul Downing- Evan Chaisson*- Eunice Delice- Deborah Quinn- Mark Graziano

Certified: Robert Vogler*- Barbara Grondine*

Vocational School Committee (Elect Two)
Thomas Grondine*- Kenneth Henrick-DJ Deeb

Certified: Thomas Grondine*

Methuen Housing Authority (Elect Two)
Robert Sheehan*- Joseph Leone- Kathleen Mulligan*

Cerified: None

Nevins Library Trustees (Elect Two)
Arthur Nicholson*- Josephine Napolitano*

Certified: None

* denotes incumbent
Italics indicate additions to the list from the last posting

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More Mayoral Debate Questions

http://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F19000280 Mayoral Debate City Human Resources Director by Bill Manzi
Questions for the Mayoral candidates on the positions of Human Resources Director and Economic Development Director.

http://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F19068515 Mayoral Debate Economic Development Director by Bill Manzi

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The McConnell Plan

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, recognizing that debt limit negotiations are going nowhere, has come up with “Plan B”, presenting a plan that effectively punts on the debt ceiling issue, giving the President de facto authority to raise the debt ceiling throughout his first term. McConnell’s proposal would force the President to submit “requests” for increases to Congress, with a requirement that he provide, in writing, proposals for budgetary reductions that correspond to his “request” for debt ceiling increases. From the Washington Post:

That measure would create a new legal structure authorizing the president to raise the debt limit by as much as $2.5 trillion in three installments. The first, an increase of $700 billion, would come immediately. The next two, worth $900 billion each, would come this fall and sometime next summer.

On each occasion, Obama would be required to submit to Congress an explicit request for an increase, along with a menu of proposed spending cuts equal to the requested increase. The submission of the president’s first request would automatically raise the debt limit by $100 billion to give the Treasury Department breathing room while Congress considers the request.

Lawmakers would then have 15 days to pass a resolution of disapproval, giving them an opportunity to go on record against raising the debt ceiling. But Obama could veto the resolution, and the debt limit would then rise, providing that at least 34 Democratic senators stood firm in upholding his veto.

McConnell and Republicans are now feeling the heat from Wall Street, where discomfort over the antics in Washington is growing. McConnell’s plan shifts the political burden for debt ceiling increases to President Obama and the Democratic Party, and is designed to make the debt issue an albatross around the President’s neck for his re-elect bid in 2012. At this point McConnell is willing to give some ground, and wager that Obama can be beat in 2012.

The President appears lukewarm, at best, to the McConnell gambit, recognizing the political danger inherent in that scheme. It appears that the President feels that he is making political gains at Republican expense, and is not eager to let them off the hook that easily. And with Eric Cantor effectively running the Republican House operation the President may be in luck.

But the measure’s failure to enforce spending cuts presents a major hurdle in the House, where rank-and-file Republicans on Tuesday threatened to reject even a $4 trillion debt-reduction plan that failed to conform to their demands.

Arriving back at the Capitol after the White House meeting, Cantor declined to comment on the McConnell plan. But, he said, “we are still at a point where nothing can pass the House.”

Nothing can pass the House! It looks like House Republicans are demanding default. With the financial contagion spreading in Europe House Republicans appear willing to buck even the business community, who recognize the dangers inherent in failure to authorize this increase. McConnell’s plan will bring the fight on fiscal matters to where it has always belonged, the appropriations process in Congress. The Republicans control the House, and can shut government down if agreement cannot be reached on adequate deficit reduction. Let us move to that battlefield, and stop toying with the full faith and credit of the United States. As far as the President goes McConnell may be as good as it gets for him, and if that is the case he should agree. Ezra Klein over at the Washington Post summed it up quite nicely:

I should say that I don’t know why House Republicans would go for it and it seems clear that this is going to be a big black eye for McConnell. But that doesn’t make it a bad plan. In essence, McConnell is proposing to permanently disarm the bomb that is the debt ceiling. He’d formalize the informal arrangement the parties have had in recent years, which is that the debt ceiling is used to embarrass the party in power, but it’s not allowed to threaten the American economy. If his plan passed, it’d become easier for the minority party to embarrass the majority party, but harder for them to threaten the economy. It’s win-win.

He is right about this being a Republican black eye for McConnell. The Red State blog was pretty quick to condemn the proposal:

McConnell was quickly excoriated online by tea party bloggers, with Erick Erickson of the Web site RedState.com blasting the plan as “the Pontius Pilate Pass the Buck Act of 2011.”

Ouch! Plenty of politics being played, but McConnell has deftly managed to protect Republican political interests while getting us out of the default danger zone. That is why the proposal is a huge betting underdog.

http://specials.washingtonpost.com/mv/embed/?title=McConnell%20unveils%20debt%20ceiling%20'back-up%20plan'&stillURL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Frf%2Fimage_606w%2F2010-2019%2FWashingtonPost%2F2011%2F07%2F12%2FNational-Politics%2FVideos%2F07122011-51v%2F07122011-51v.jpg&flvURL=%2Fmedia%2F2011%2F07%2F12%2F07122011-51v.m4v&width=480&height=270&autoStart=0&clickThru=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2Fmcconnell-unveils-debt-ceiling-back-up-plan%2F2011%2F07%2F12%2FgIQALFt4AI_video.html

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Groundbreaking for Methuen High School

The groundbreaking for Methuen High School will take place today at 2:00 p.m. at the High School, at the bus loop. We are expecting Treasurer Grossman and MSBA Executive Director Katherine Craven on hand to celebrate the start of this project that is so vital to the students of Methuen. This $100 million dollar renovation/addition will be funded without the need for a Proposition 2.5 debt exclusion or override. I hope we can have some Methuen Ice Cream on hand for the Treasurer. Hope to see you there.

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More Methuen Mayoral Debate Questions

A call in question from the public on ethics for the three Mayoral candidates on the Politically Active Radio Program on WCCM.

http://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F18883700 Mayoral Debate Call In Question 3 by Bill Manzi

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Mayoral Debate- More Questions

The candidates for Mayor, in these two clips, take questions from the audience, including one on vocational school funding.

http://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F18765782 Mayoral Debate Call In Question by Bill Manzi

http://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F18815572 Mayoral Debate Vocational School Question by Bill Manzi

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