Bill Manzi.com

Barack Obama’s candidacy has had plenty written about it over the past year. Whether it was about Obama’s initial strength among white voters (Iowa) or his subsequent lack of strength amongst whites, working class, etc (West Virginia) we have heard and read plenty. But the Obama effect can now be seen through some real non-presidential election results. The election of Democrat Travis Childers in Mississippi came in spite of a Republican media attack trying to link Obama to Childers. Did these Republican attacks actually drive Democratic turnout? From todays New York Times:

With the strong support of black voters, a conservative white Democrat, Travis W. Childers, scored an upset victory in that race, in a district held by Republicans since 1995. Kelvin Buck, a black state representative who helped the Childers campaign, said he saw a “level of enthusiasm and energy” that he had not seen before from black voters — significantly motivated, he said, by a recent Republican anti-Obama campaign.

The numbers appear to bear that out. In one black precinct in the town of Amory, Miss., the number of voters nearly doubled, to 413, from the Congressional election in 2006, and this for a special election with nothing else on the ballot. Meanwhile, in a nearby white precinct, the number of voters dropped by nearly half.

Maybe Childers should drop a thank you note to the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee for the 1.2 million dollars they spent on an anti Obama message.

Yet one sure lesson of the surprising Congressional result from northern Mississippi is that the use of Mr. Obama as an electoral tactic — Republicans resorted to it heavily in the contest — is at best a double-edged sword. At worst it is a guillotine for Republican candidates in areas with substantial black populations, like the Mississippi district won by Mr. Childers, where 26 percent are African-American. Indeed, Tuesday’s Mississippi vote emerged as a case study in the effects and consequences of focusing on Mr. Obama.

“We realized the Republican machine was on the attack,” said Mr. Buck, the state representative who helped Mr. Childers. “They wanted to say he was tied to Barack Obama. The question we asked was, What’s wrong with that? We wanted to prove to them that there’s nothing wrong in Mississippi with a person being tied to Barack Obama.”

And with Republicans in full retreat is the solid Republican south now being put into play? With some conservative antipathy to John McCain one would have to say that Republicans will be forced to spend money in states that did not require much attention in years gone by.

But in Southern states with large black populations, like Alabama, Mississippi and Virginia, an energized black electorate could create a countervailing force, particularly if conservative white voters choose not to flock to Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, predicts “the largest black turnout in the history of the United States” this fall if Mr. Obama is the nominee.

To hold these states, Republicans may have to work harder than ever. Already, turnout in Democratic primaries this year has substantially exceeded Republican turnout in states like Arkansas, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

There is no question that there is a flip side to all of this (no candidate that I am aware of presents a perfect fit everywhere) but the Obama candidacy presents Democrats with some unique opportunities as well as a few challenges. If handled as deftly as the Obama political operation has handled matters up to this point his candidacy could be the perfect storm for Republicans. Read the New York Times article at this link.

John Edwards yesterday finally delivered his long sought endorsement to Barack Obama, appearing with him in Grand Rapids, Michigan to deliver a speech announcing his support. The announcement helped to mitigate the negative publicity surrounding Obama’s big loss in West Virginia. It also continues the Party unification around Obama as the presumptive nominee. Edwards called for Democratic unity against John McCain. From the Washington Post:

Edwards, who received a thunderous ovation when Obama introduced him to a crowd of several thousand, said, “brothers and sisters, we must come together as Democrats” to defeat Sen. John McCain, the Republican candidate. “We are here tonight because the Democratic voters have made their choice, and so have I.”

Edwards praised Hillary Clinton, as the Obama campaign continues to act as if Hillary is gone.

Edwards also praised Clinton, saying “we are a stronger party” because of her involvement, and “we’re going to have a stronger nominee in the fall because of her work.”

He said Clinton is a “woman who is made of steel. She is a leader in this country not because of her husband but because of what she has done.”

The Clinton campaign pointed to West Virginia as they say the fight is not over.

Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said in a statement, “We respect John Edwards, but as the voters of West Virginia showed last night, this thing is far from over.”

Another nice piece of campaign work by Obama, whose political operation has not received the credit it is due for being nimble and smart.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/24630832#24630832

A special congressional election in Mississippi’s First Congressional District was won yesterday by Democrat Travis Childers. This district has been considered safe Republican, and the Democratic victory (the third straight Democratic special election victory) set off alarm bells within the Republican Party. From the Washington Post:

Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, sounded an alarm for all GOP candidates “to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall” while lashing themselves to the presidential candidacy of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). “The political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general. . . . Time is short,” Cole said in a statement.

The panic should start now for Republicans. Bush won this district by 25 percentage points, and the former Republican Congressman from the District won re-election with 66 percent of the vote in the last cycle. A key component of the Republican strategy here was to link the Democrat Childers to Barack Obama in a conservative district. The Republicans spent about 1.8 million on ads in this area, and they did not appear to gain any traction for their candidate. The Democrats spent about the same, and showed a willingness to back a candidate who is pro-gun and anti abortion. That wave on the horizon is getting bigger, and it appears that many Republicans will be carried out to sea in November.

Senator Hillary Clinton, facing long odds to secure the Democratic nomination, crushed Senator Barack Obama last night in West Virginia. The final tally:

Clinton 239,062 67%

Obama 91,652 26%

Edwards 26,076 7%

The race, with the demographics of West Virginia, heavily favored Clinton, with Obama conceding as much up front. From the Washington Post:

Interviews with West Virginians leaving their polling places suggested Clinton’s victory could be as overwhelming as any she has gained to date, delivered by an electorate that was 95 percent white and was composed of the kinds of voters who favored her in past primaries. Nearly a quarter were 60 or older, and a similar number had no education beyond high school. More than half were in families with incomes of $50,000 or less. The exit polls showed race, education, Obama’s former pastor and a plan for a summertime suspension of federal gas taxes all gave Clinton a huge advantage in the state’s presidential primary.

Despite the overwhelming win by Clinton the drumbeat for withdrawal goes on, with most of the pundits saying the math is set against her. The flow of superdelegates to Obama continues steadily, and while it is not a stampede it is clear that it is trending Obama. From the Post:

He picked up four superdelegates during the day, including Roy Romer, former Democratic Party chairman.
This race, I believe, is over,” Romer told reporters on a conference call. He said only Clinton can decide when to withdraw, but he added: “There is a time we need to end it and direct ourselves to the general election. I think that time is now.”

Clinton is not buying into that theory.

Clinton used her victory speech to again argue that she still had a shot at the nomination. She said the delegates from Michigan and Florida — states that were penalized by the Democratic Party because they held their primaries too early — should be seated at the national convention.

“I believe we should honor the votes cast by 2.3 million people in those states,” Clinton said.

“In light of our overwhelming victory here in West Virginia, I want to send a message to all those who are making up their minds,” she said.

“I am in this race because I believe I am the strongest candidate.”

And on we go. It appears to me that Obama is going to be the nominee, but he clearly has substantial work to do to shore up some major constituencies. The Democratic Party should not have to write off West Virginia in November.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/24604728#24604728

With Obama now being the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party many have asked, or will ask that question. The New York Times ran a pretty good story on Senator Obama today, with a focus on his evolution from a constituency of “reformers” as he began his political life, to an evolution where his pragmatic side has shown through. The Times shows several strong examples of this “evolution”, including his strong ties to Mayor Richard Daley of Chicago. My sense of the story was that Obama has always been a pragmatist, but simply moved incrementally and cautiously as he learned some important political lessons from the very rough and tumble world of Chicago politics. His evolving position on the Israeli-Palestinian question caused a Palestinian supporter, Rashid Khalidi, to say

“I’m unhappy about the positions he’s taken, but I can’t say I’m terribly disappointed.” He added: “People think he’s a saint. He’s not. He’s a politician.”

A pretty good profile that does more than skim the subject. Read the Times article at this link.

Barack Obama cruised to victory in the North Carolina primary tonight, inching closer to the Democratic nomination. With 72% of the precincts reporting the totals were:

Obama 56%

Clinton 42%

Other 2%

Obama was expected to win this primary, but the Clinton team hoped that her momentum might blunt the margin or actually stop the train. That train just kept rolling tonight.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/24492787#24492787

New York Times columnist Frank Rich wrote an interesting piece on Sunday that discussed the so called “pastor problem”. Rich talked about the endorsement of John McCain by Pastor John Hagee, and some of the clips available on you tube that show Hagee engaging in some viscious Catholic bashing. From the Rich column.

What you’ll find is a white televangelist, the Rev. John Hagee, lecturing in front of an enormous diorama. Wielding a pointer, he pokes at the image of a woman with Pamela Anderson-sized breasts, her hand raising a golden chalice. The woman is “the Great Whore,” Mr. Hagee explains, and she is drinking “the blood of the Jewish people.” That’s because the Great Whore represents “the Roman Church,” which, in his view, has thirsted for Jewish blood throughout history, from the Crusades to the Holocaust.

And what of the media and its fixation on Rev. Wright? Is the focus on Wright’s rantings and the demands made on Obama matched by a demand that McCain disavow Hagee?

That defense implies, incorrectly, that Mr. McCain was a passive recipient of this bigot’s endorsement. In fact, by his own account, Mr. McCain sought out Mr. Hagee, who is perhaps best known for trying to drum up a pre-emptive “holy war” with Iran. (This preacher’s rantings may tell us more about Mr. McCain’s policy views than Mr. Wright’s tell us about Mr. Obama’s.) Even after Mr. Hagee’s Catholic bashing bubbled up in the mainstream media, Mr. McCain still did not reject and denounce him, as Mr. Obama did an unsolicited endorser, Louis Farrakhan, at the urging of Tim Russert and Hillary Clinton. Mr. McCain instead told George Stephanopoulos two Sundays ago that while he condemns any “anti-anything” remarks by Mr. Hagee, he is still “glad to have his endorsement.”

I wonder if Mr. McCain would have given the same answer had Mr. Stephanopoulos confronted him with the graphic video of the pastor in full “Great Whore” glory. But Mr. McCain didn’t have to fear so rude a transgression. Mr. Hagee’s videos have never had the same circulation on television as Mr. Wright’s. A sonorous white preacher spouting venom just doesn’t have the telegenic zing of a theatrical black man.

Yes, I guess the Republican’s have a pastor problem as well. On top of Tom Tancredo’s Pope bashing it appears that Republican’s are insensitive to Catholic bashing. And speaking of Rev. Wright one of the most outrageous comments he made was the “chickens coming home to roost comments” about 9/11. But was he alone in making that statement. Rich correctly points to comments by the Reverends Falwell and Robertson over 9/11.

Perhaps that’s why virtually no one has rebroadcast the highly relevant prototype for Mr. Wright’s fiery claim that 9/11 was America’s chickens “coming home to roost.” That would be the Sept. 13, 2001, televised exchange between Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, who blamed the attacks on America’s abortionists, feminists, gays and A.C.L.U. lawyers. (Mr. Wright blamed the attacks on America’s foreign policy.) Had that video re-emerged in the frenzied cable-news rotation, Mr. McCain might have been asked to explain why he no longer calls these preachers “agents of intolerance” and chose to cozy up to Mr. Falwell by speaking at his Liberty University in 2006.

Pretty “rich” analysis in the Sunday Times. If Obama is the nominee I expect he will not be the only candidate in the race with a “pastor” problem. Read the Rich column here.