Bill Manzi.com

A new Newsweek poll has Barack Obama opening a wide lead on John McCain. The Newsweek poll puts Obama up by fifteen points as well as giving him some other relatively good news. From Newsweek:

The latest numbers on voter dissatisfaction suggest that Obama may enjoy more than one bounce. The new poll finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country. That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992, when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton’s victory over Bush’s father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of “change” by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent. Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.

Obama is also benefitting from the damaged Republican brand, as Democratic registration once again is substantially higher than Republican.

Obama’s current lead also reflects the large party-identification advantage the Democrats now enjoy—55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way. Even as McCain seeks to gain voters by distancing himself from the unpopular Bush and emphasizing his maverick image, he is suffering from the GOP’s poor reputation among many voters. Still, history provides hope for the GOP. Hugick points out that in May 1988 when the primaries ended, Democrat Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 54 percent to 38 percent lead over George H.W. Bush. But Bush wound up winning handily. “Those results should give people pause,” Hugick says, saying that a substantial number of voters, about 5 percent, have also moved into the undecided column. A significant improvement in the economy, or continued advances in Iraq—an issue McCain has identified with strongly as the senator who championed the “surge” first—could alter the Republican’s fortunes.

While it is obviously very early and McCain’s fortunes could turn Obama’s huge fundraising edge will make a McCain resurgence all the more difficult. Is McCain begining to resemble Bob Dole to you? Read the Newsweek story here.

Barack Obama unveiled a new ad campaign yesterday on the heels of his opting out of the public finance system. The significance of that opt out may be seen immediately, with Obama running this ad in what are usually solid Republican areas as well as the traditional battlegrounds. He will be on the air in Montana, Georgia, North Carolina, Alaska, and North Dakota, apparently confident enough in his finances to invest where Democrats have not invested before. He has said that he will “expand the playing field” and he has begun that process. Obama correctly will try to define himself before the Republicans do it for him, and has the financial muscle to accomplish this vital political goal. John McCain is in a tough spot, and will need the unaffiliated 527 groups to spend large sums to bridge the financial gap between him and Obama. And we are off………

In a move that was widely expected Barack Obama announced today that he is opting out of the federal system of public finance. From MSNBC First Read, an interesting analysis.

This move has been widely speculated, but it’s a reversal from comments he made earlier in the campaign season that he would he accept general funds — which gives the candidates about $85 million to spend after the conventions. Assuming each of Obama’s 1.5 million-plus contributors gives him $100, that comes to $150 million; if they give him an average of $200, that’s $300 million. Campaign finance issues are always debated heavily on editorial pages, but not among voters. Ask McCain how many new votes he’s earned with his support for campaign finance reform. As for McCain, he has to make the choice of 1) taking the federal funds, accepting the fact he’ll be outspent 3-1; or 2) opting out too and get himself bogged down at fundraisers in September instead of doing town halls.

The Obama campaign released a video in which the candidate explains his reasoning in opting out. (And where you will be solicited to give to the campaign.) Link to that video here.

So what does McCain do now>

Is a Gore endorsement of Barack Obama worthy of a post. Well it is on this blog. Al Gore yesterday made his endorsement of Barack Obama in Michigan, and being a blog that follows all things Gore I thought it worthy. After looking at the video however it may be time for Gore to enter his own “biggest loser” competition.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/25201367#25201367

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll has Barack Obama with an overall lead over John McCain, but with some slippage for Obama amongst independent voters. The new poll does point to some fertile ground for Obama, showing obvious discontent with President Bush. From those that disapprove of President Bush McCain draws a paltry 26 percent of the vote. Amongst the dwindling supporters of Bush McCain scores much higher at 80 percent. The tying of McCain to Bush will present McCain with some difficult political choices (alienate the base vs Bush separation) that could lead to a muddled and confusing message from the McCain campaign. From the Washington Post:

McCain will be running into stiff headwinds over the next five months. Bush’s approval rating hit another low in Post-ABC polling and now is 29 percent, with 68 percent saying they disapprove of the job he is doing — 54 percent strongly. Among the dwindling number who approve of the way Bush is handling his job, 80 percent back McCain. Among the much higher number who disapprove, 26 percent support McCain.

In general, 57 percent said McCain would continue to lead the country as Bush has and 38 percent said he would chart a new course.

Two other indicators point to problems for McCain. Dissatisfaction with the direction of the country hit an all-time high this month, with 84 percent saying the nation is now seriously on the wrong track. And asked which party they favor for the House this fall, 52 percent said Democratic and 37 percent said Republican.

McCain has solidified Republican support more effectively than Obama has solidified Democratic support, but based on an overall increase in Democratic numbers will need to win amongst those fabled “independent” voters.

McCain needs support from independents because in recent elections, partisans have overwhelmingly supported their own party’s candidates, and self-identified Democrats now outnumber Republicans. If Obama is able to consolidate Democratic voters, McCain will need to capture a sizable percentage of independents to win the White House.

The survey shows some small independent movement towards McCain, but has warning signs for him as well.

Obama and McCain are even among political independents, a shift toward the presumptive Republican nominee over the past month. On the issues, independents see McCain as more credible on fighting terrorism and are split evenly on who is the stronger leader and better on the Iraq war. But on other key attributes and issues — including the economy — Obama has advantages among independents.

A jump ball right now, and although an overall measure the electoral college is what really matters. Time for a battleground state analysis. Stay tuned.

Read the entire Washington Post story here.

Patti Solis Doyle, who was deposed as Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager midstream, was named by Barack Obama to his campaign staff today. Solis Doyle will serve as the chief of staff to the Obama V.P. designee, adding some tension with the Hillary Clinton camp, who see the move as a clear signal that Hillary will not receive the V.P. nod. From the Washington Post:

“It’s a slap in the face,” Susie Tompkins Buell, a prominent Clinton backer, said in an interview. “Why would they put somebody that was so clearly ineffective in such a position? It’s a message. We get it.” She said it was a “calculated decision” by the Obama team to “send a message that she [Clinton] is not being considered for the ticket.”

The sniping at Solis Doyle was not restricted to Susie Buell.

Other Clinton insiders also seethed. “Who can blame Obama for rewarding Patti? He would never be the nominee without her,” one person who has worked for both Clintons and remains close to them said. The sentiment reflected what another person in the immediate Clinton orbit described as “shock” that Obama would send such a strong signal that he is not considering Clinton as his runningmate so soon.

Pretty tough stuff, and certainly not the peace in our time we were hoping for. Barack Obama is in charge!