The Al Smith Dinner Barack Obama Remarks

Barack Obama, almost as good as McCain here. Really good job by both.

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The Al Smith Dinner John McCain Remarks

Some pretty funny stuff here from John McCain, who before this campaign was known for a wicked sense of humor.

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The Tax Man

There has been wide disagreement on the tax impacts of the McCain and Obama tax proposals, although McCain came close to admitting the wider benefit of Obama’s plan when he accused him of wanting to “re-distribute” wealth with his tax plans. Here Obama keeps picking away at the subject, inviting people to calculate the impacts on them of the Obama plan. Clever ad, hitting at a key area of the campaign.

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The Governor’s Cuts in Methuen

Governor Patrick, in making his cuts of one billion against the state budget, impacted Methuen in several ways. The Methuen cuts are as follows:

1) Cut of $150,000 for Methuen Parks and Recreation. This money was to be used to complete the purchase of new playground equipment started last year, with some of it likely used to assist in the building of the new locker room at our stadium.

2) $200,000 cut for environmental remediation at the Appleyard site in our downtown. This money was to be used to complete the remediation work started on this important site, giving additional parking and open space to our downtown area, and converting a mini brownfield to productive use.

3) $25,000 cut to Methuen’s YMCA.

4) A $37,500 cut to Methuen’s Arlington Neighborhood for after school programs and homework assistance for children from our neediest neighborhoods. This cut is on top of the loss of CDBG funding this year, and will have a severely negative impact on the services provided.

5) A 25 percent cut in our community policing allocation of about $400,000. This grant funds four full time officers, as well as community and neighborhood initiatives vital to the concept of neighborhood style policing. We will begin taking steps today to re-program this money in light of the cut, but the Governor was correct when he said that this will impact our ability to deliver “community policing patrols”.

6) The Special Education circuit breaker was cut $13 million, and that will have an adverse impact on Methuen, but to what extent is not clear yet. I have asked the Superintendent to analyze the cut and its relationship to Methuen.

We will continue to analyze the Governor’s package for its impacts on Methuen and make the appropriate cuts. This is a difficult time, with the likelihood of more difficulty before the economy turns. We will take appropriate action in Methuen to ensure that our budget remains in balance with a minimum disruption of service.

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The Presidential Debate

With John McCain slipping further behind last night’s debate was critical for him. He was aggressive and combative, doing his best to bring the fight to Obama. Did he succeed? Was he able to turn around this race in any substantial way? I find McCain’s delivery to be choppy and uneven, a style that reminds me of Bob Dole. I just did not see him scoring the good clean hit he needed to score last night.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27207488#27207488

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The Governor’s Budget Statement

Governor Patrick today announced his 9-c cuts, which totaled about one billion dollars. The statement from the Governor.

BOSTON – Wednesday, October 15, 2008 – Faced with an estimated budget deficit of $1.4 billion, Governor Deval Patrick today started implementing a fiscal action plan to close the gap that includes more than $1 billion in immediate cuts and spending controls across state government, identifying additional revenues and a responsible draw on reserves. The announcement comes as the Administration has revised the state’s revenue estimate, on which the budget is built, by approximately $1.1 billion.
“With the economy slowing and state revenue declining, we have to act,” said Governor Patrick. “These decisions are not easy. I know there is a good idea or a good person behind every one of these cuts. But we are going to share the sacrifice now so that we can all be stronger when the economy recovers.”

The Governor’s careful approach to identifying cuts and his call for shared responsibility throughout state government made it possible to preserve key, targeted investments in education, public safety and the safety net included in what was a $28.2 billion budget. Governor Patrick prioritized municipalities and property-tax payers by continuing to fully fund local aid to cities and towns. The Governor also protected veterans’ services, domestic violence programs, and services for the homeless and disabled.

Governor Patrick sought and received unprecedented voluntary cuts and contributions to solve the budget gap from entities outside his budget cutting authority including the Legislature, Constitutional Officers, the Judiciary, and quasi-public agencies. These additional cuts and contributions total close to $100 million.

After consulting with the Department of Revenue, economists, former state finance officials, and others, Administration and Finance Secretary Leslie Kirwan submitted to Governor Patrick a consensus revenue estimate reduced by $1.1 billion to account for an expected continued shortfall in revenues for the remainder of FY 2009.

Secretary Kirwan also identified $320 million in projected exposures from anticipated spending obligations. This includes snow and ice removal costs, health and human services caseload exposures, increased debt service and certain public safety costs bringing the total budget shortfall to $1.4 billion.

“The unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the global and national economies complicates our own economic situation here at home,” said Secretary Kirwan. “It also suggests an aggressive approach to solving this projected shortfall now, while recognizing that additional solutions may still be needed later in the year should the revenue decline exceed even these significant expected losses.”

Governor Patrick’s fiscal action plan is a multi-pronged approach to closing the budget gap, while securing the Commonwealth’s future.

Spending Cuts and Revenue Adjustments

Spending Cuts and Controls
To help close the $1.4 billion budget gap, the Governor is using his statutory authority to make $755 million in cuts across Executive Branch agencies and implement $146 million in additional spending controls. In order to protect local aid for communities and to maintain a strong safety net of services to help struggling families and individuals, the Governor made difficult choices in other areas.

Reserves
In addition to cuts and savings, the Governor’s plan includes a $200 million draw from the state’s “Rainy Day” Stabilization Fund – a prudent amount that leaves $1.6 billion in the fund. The additional draw brings the total use this year to $601 million, which is the same level drawn from reserves in the FY 2008 budget.

Additional Revenues and Savings
As part of his fiscal action plan, the Governor has also proposed using $168 million in additional revenues and savings.

In order to protect property-tax payers and hold local aid harmless, the Governor has proposed using $13 million generated by eliminating the outdated telecom tax exemption to offset a $13 million reduction in funds that would otherwise be paid out from the General Fund Supplement to Hold Harmless Lottery Aid.

No city or town will lose local aid from the state. Aid to municipalities will be reduced in direct proportion to the amount of revenue they will receive from the repeal of the telecom tax exemption. Communities that do not receive funding from the telecom tax will not see a decrease in their aid.

The Governor’s fiscal action plan also includes $100 million in expected corporate tax settlement payments currently being negotiated at the Department of Revenue, and $55 million in additional TANF (Transitional Aid to Needy Families) funds from the federal government.

Shared Responsibility

In spirit of shared responsibility, Governor Patrick cut his own budget by $1.1 million and secured unprecedented assistance from the Legislature, the Judiciary, constitutional officers and independent authorities in identifying savings and reforms.

These voluntary spending cuts offered total $52 million. Additionally, many of the state’s quasi-public agencies have stepped up to offer funds to mitigate the impact of state cuts. Voluntary cuts include:

Legislature, Judiciary, Constitutional Officers:

§ Governor: $1.1 million

§ Legislature: $9 million

§ Judiciary: $33 million

§ Secretary of State: $3.8 million

§ Attorney General: $0.50 million

§ Treasurer: $0.38 million

§ Auditor: $1.05 million

§ District Attorneys: $3.0 million

Independent Authorities/Quasi-Public Agencies:

MassachusettsEducational Finance Authority: $2 million
Health and Educational Facilities Authority: $2 million
MA Water Pollution Abatement Trust: $2.2 million
Massachusetts Convention CenterAuthority: $2.5 million
MTC/Massport: $0.61 million
MassHousing: $9.5 million
Mass Housing Partnership: $2.1 million
Connector: $0.5 million
MassDevelopment: $4.5 million
MWRA: $20 million
Reforms and Restructuring

ReformStateEmployee Health Insurance
Governor Patrick also filed legislation today to implement a plan to restructure the way state employees pay for health insurance, which is expected to save $28.5 million for the remainder of FY 2009. The proposal, similar to what the Governor introduced earlier this year, changes employee contributions from a system based on date of hire to a more rational system based on salary levels and affordability.

This reform will reduce contributions for 6,000 state employees, and have no change on contributions for another 16,000 employees. For many other state employees, contribution levels would increase modestly based on salary and affordability.

Updates to Mass.gov

As a resource for residents, Governor Patrick has directed staff to update the state’s web site – http://www.mass.gov – by compiling links and resources that may be helpful in these difficult economic times. In addition, Mass.gov includes information on how residents can help others through volunteer opportunities.

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Governor to Announce Cuts

Governor Deval Patrick will announce cuts to the State budget today at 5:00 p.m., with word filtering out that as much as $800 million may be on the chopping block. It appears that the new revenue figures that Patrick has ordered will show a drop of as much as $1.5 billion, forcing deep cuts. From the Boston Herald:

This is not about, you know, cutting so-called ‘fat.’ This is going to cut muscle because the scale of the issue requires that,” Patrick said, adding he hopes to spare local aid and some state education funding.

“We’re doing our level best not to go at either local aid or Chapter 70 funding. And so far, I think we will be able to do that or at least not touch it in a significant way.”

The $1.5 billion revenue shortfall means Patrick should be slashing between $600 million and $800 million, said fiscal watchdog Michael Widmer, who expected Patrick to cut via layoffs, earmarks and possibly voluntary furloughs.

Patrick will likely cut away all of the so called “local earmarks” included in the budget, although there is some question about his authority in some cases absent a legislative grant of expanded 9-c power.

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A different shade of Red: Battleground North Carolina

North Carolina in play for the Democrats? Yes indeed Barack Obama has pulled dead even with John McCain in the Tar Heel state according to the latest Rasmussen survey. From Rasmussen:

It’s all tied in North Carolina.

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 48% of Tar Heel voters prefer Barack Obama while an identical number favor John McCain. One percent (1%) say they’ll vote for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and three percent (3%) remain undecided. …

McCain leads 61% to 37% among Evangelical Christians. He also leads by eight percentage points among other Protestant voters while Catholics are evenly divided. Obama leads 67% to 29% among all other voters statewide. The Democrat leads by seven among women but trails by 11 among men.

The precision strikes of the Obama campaign have McCain scrambling in areas that should be locked down already. McCain was campaigning in North Carolina this week, indicative of Republican panic that this State may go Democratic.

The financial muscle of the Obama campaign is now telling the story. In North Carolina the edge has been huge. From the website of North Carolina TV Station WRAL:

Democrat Barack Obama is spending more money in North Carolina than Republican John McCain, according to a study by the University of Wisconsin.

The university analyzed political ads from across the country. For the week spanning Sept. 28 – Oct. 4 the study showed McCain’s camp spent $148,000 in the state compared to Obama’s $1.23 million.

Now that is what I call a financial edge. And it has been effectively spent, with the Obama ad posted here a really hard hitting piece perfectly tailored to North Carolina. This ad, for my money, is one of the best ads of this campaign season. I do not know if Obama will prevail in N.C., but he certainly has disrupted the McCain ability to fight this battle on Democratic turf. And the Obama push here and in other red states is having a positive effect on downticket Democratic candidates, creating a bit of panic amongst rank and file Republicans fearful of being washed away in the tide.

http://services.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f8/1185304443

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A deeper shade of blue: Obama widens lead

Senator Barack Obama continued to widen his lead in some key battleground states, according to new polling data just released. Obama appears to have put the race away in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and is close to doing so in Colorado. The states have a tendency to be Democratic, but McCain had hoped to be able to put Minnesota and Wisconsin in play. Instead the pressure builds on McCain as Obama continues to put traditional Republican strongholds in play while holding solid in areas considered to be must win. From Chris Cilizza at the Washington Post:

Obama holds double-digit margins over McCain in Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin and carries a nine-point advantage over his Republican rival in Colorado, according to polling conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal.

Obama’s ascendancy in these key states mirrors his growing lead in national polling. The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey put Obama at 53 percent to McCain’s 43 percent, while the daily Gallup tracking poll showed Obama holding a similar lead of 51 percent to 41 percent on Monday.

The data shows why McCain pulled out of Michigan, and how the economy has hurt his candidacy badly.

Obama’s 54 percent to 38 percent lead in Michigan helps to explain why McCain decided to pull down his ads and pull out the majority of his campaign staff from the Wolverine State last week — choosing to fight, instead, in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine.

The data was similar in Wisconsin and Minnesota where Obama gained 10 points and nine points, respectively, in his margin over McCain since the September Quinnipiac poll; the Illinois senator led McCain in Wisconsin 54 percent to 37 percent, and held a 51 percent to 40 percent edge in Minnesota.

In both states, 58 percent of the sample cited the economy as the leading issue affecting their vote — nearly six times as many as named any other issue. The Wisconsin number represents a significant shift from the seven-point advantage the Quinnipiac poll showed for Obama in the Badger State in the third week of September. It also stands in contrast to other recent poll data, including a CNN/Time poll done earlier this month, that showed Obama leading 51 percent to 46 percent.

Most polling data are showing the same result, with the recently released Washington Post/ABC poll showing Obama cementing a national lead by impressive numbers. Is it to late for McCain? I think it is, and with the financial muscle Obama is bringing to bear on this race any chance that McCain might have will be obliterated under a fusillade of campaign dollars. Read the Cilizza story here.

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JFK on Tape

Here is some fascinating material, with Senator (soon to be President) John F. Kennedy talking to Ben Bradlee of Newsweek, with Jackie in the conversation as well. JFK talks candidly about health, politics, some of his likes and dislikes, and the possibility of having to start a new career if he lost in 1960. Good audio quality and a real interesting look at a President that still stirs interest 48 years after his election.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27168561#27168561

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