What Ails Democrats?

With the Coakley loss there will be plenty of post election analysis done on why she lost, and whether that loss should lead to a re-evaluation of Democratic Party strategies and policy goals. Two interesting columns, one by Senator Steve Baddour in the Eagle Tribune, and a blog posting over at the AFL blog by Jeff Crosby, take somewhat differing views on the election and the best way forward for Democrats.

Baddour calls for a return to values, and somewhat directly criticizes the conduct of some on Beacon Hill. He generically criticizes Democratic tax policies, saying that those policies are not “working” for Massachusetts families struggling through this recession. There are no policy prescriptions in Baddour’s piece, but rather a criticism of the notion of business as usual.

Some of our leaders have lost the confidence of the people they were sworn to serve. Criminal behavior, back-room deals, and lack of true accountability have disenfranchised the voters and left them with a destructive and cynical view toward government. Well-funded special interest groups have taken over the agenda, serving only themselves, not the greater good. We must set a standard that restores faith in the political process and shines the light on the way business is now conducted on Beacon Hill and Capitol Hill.

Crosby focuses on the lack of rank and file labor support for Coakley, and hones in on President Obama’s support for the Senate “cadillac tax” on health care, which alienated large swarths of union voters. Crosby’s blog posting indicates that Coakley lost union households in Massachusetts by three points, and posits that Brown essentially got the McCain Massachusetts vote, while Coakley failed to bring out her base, drawing substantially less than President Obama’s raw vote totals. The posting also contained some very interesting poll numbers done for the AFL by Hart. I have attached those at the bottom of this posting. How the Democrats move forward from here depends on what lessons we take from this election. That debate starts now. Here is a snippet from the Crosby post:

Coakley spent time raising money from insurance lobbyists in Washington instead of campaigning in Mattapan because that’s the way the system works. Obama listened to an MIT economist instead of us—about our own benefit plans—because that’s often the way the Democratic Party works. Neo-liberalism reigns, money flows from and to those with power, and extremist free market ideas have permeated every corner of public life. Many national Democrats will conclude this election was lost because Democrats were—you guessed it—“too left.” The AFL-CIO election night polling shows they are wrong.

Would an aggressive labor-populist campaign have won this election? I think so. Of course, it’s hard to say. One thing is certain—you don’t build the kind of country we want by putting lipstick on a pig or by reconciling the irreconcilable. Whether the road ahead is hard or easy, we need to be blunt about the circumstances we face here in these United States, and let the chips fall where they may.

Read the Jeff Crosby blog posting here.

Read the Baddour column here.

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The President on SCOTUS Corporate Free Speech

The President this week talked about the Supreme Court decision that opened the floodgates for special interest money to flood the political system. The Court broadened the concept of First Amendment rights for corporations, enabling corporate and other special interest money broad new access to the system. The link above contains all of the opinions written by the Justices, not just the majority opinion by Justice Kennedy. And the exchange between Chief Justice Roberts and lead dissenter Justice Stevens is highlighted in the “Supreme Court Memo” column over at the New York Times. A legislative remedy to the Court decision? Lots of talk about it, but I don’t hold out much hope for change.

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Governor Patrick at the MMA

Governor Patrick at the MMA yesterday giving the keynote speech and giving an advance peek at his budget, and how it pertains to local aid. His remarks were welcomed by local officials, who had anticipated large cuts in general local aid and school aid. Mayor Tom Menino spoke before the Governor, and he repeated our call for the State to give “plan design” authority to local officials outside of the collective bargaining process.

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David Paleologos on Senate Race

David Paleologos of Suffolk University was the pollster who first saw Scott Brown take the lead in the Senate race. He and his team at Suffolk did a terrific job of tracking the movement in the race. His bellwether polls confirmed that the race had indeed slipped away from Martha Coakley. A nice job by David, who made an appearance on Hardball with Chris Matthews to discuss the election this week. This video has David talking about the race. Good stuff.

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Health Care Conundrum

The victory of Scott Brown has thrown Democratic plans for health care expansion into chaos, with both Senate and House leadership seemingly unable to come up with a cogent strategy to bring a bill forward. The most obvious way forward would have been for the House to adopt the Senate version intact, and then send that bill to the President for signature. Corrective legislation could have followed. The House yesterday rejected that possibility, with Speaker Pelosi admitting that the votes were not there to adopt the Senate version.

The health care reform bills adopted by both branches appear dead. The President himself appeared to call for a scaled back version in an interview on ABC, but the White House later “clarified” his remarks to say that he still favored a broader approach. There will be no approach, either narrow or broad, without Republican votes in the Senate. That is the only way forward on health care today. The bill making process has been utilized by Republicans politically in a very effective manner, and that process has soured independent voters on the whole bill. And truly the process has rightly been subject to criticism. The carve outs are outrageous, and the states (besides Nebraska), have a real concern about any bill that passes costs on to them. We at the local level have concerns about additional burdens to the states as well. It is back to the drawing board, but health care reform is on advanced life support.

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Wednesday Morning Quarterbacking

Senator Scott Brown delivered an old fashioned electoral whipping to Martha Coakley yesterday, defeating her handily across Massachusetts and upsetting the national applecart for the Democratic Party. Scott Brown ran an energetic campaign, and used a great retail operation to create a “wholesale” message that really resonated.

The Coakley campaign, on the other hand, should hang their head in shame. The recriminations have begun already, with the Coakley campaign blaming the National Party for not coming to the rescue with funds immediately after the primary. In a memo released over at “The Fix” at the Washington Post, the finger pointing started even before the election results were in, with the Coakley campaign putting their spin on the defeat.

National Dems Failed to Aid Coakley Until Too Late

— Coakley campaign provided national Democrats with all poll results since early December

— Coakley campaign noted concerns about “apathy” and failure of national Democrats to contribute early in December. Coakley campaign noted fundraising concerns throughout December and requested national Democratic help.

— DNC and other Dem organizations did not engage until the week before the election, much too late to aid Coakley operation

Brown Capitalized on Concerns About National Democrats

— From the beginning, Brown labeled President Obama’s health care and cap and trade plans as tax increases. Polling throughout the race showed this to be the most effective attack on Coakley.

— Coakley’s lead dropped significantly after the Senate passed health care reform shortly before Christmas and after the Christmas Eve “bombing” incident. Polling showed significant concerns with the actions of Senator Nelson to hold out for a better deal. Senator Nelson’s actions specifically hurt Coakley who was forced to backtrack on her opposition to the abortion restriction amendment.

— Democrats concerns with Obama’s Afghanistan plan forced Coakley to oppose the Afghan war in the primary, which hurt her in the general.

Claims about Coakley’s Scant Campaigning and Miscues Were Exaggerated

— Because of the failure of national Democrats to support Coakley, she was forced to devote significant time to fundraising in December. She also released a variety of plans in December and had a public event nearly every day.

— Coakley’s failure to release television advertisements until 12 days before the election was the result of a fundraising problem that national Democrats failed to resolve. Meanwhile, right-wing groups pumped significant amounts of money into Brown’s campaign, allowing him to go up with ads first, including negative attack ads funded by the Swift Boat and Willie Horton groups.

What a load of malarkey. The Coakley campaign went dark, and that was not only on the airwaves. She had no events scheduled for a week or better in December, while Brown was out doing a truckload (sorry) of retail. The campaign gaffes are well chronicled, but the total lack of outreach is unexplainable and a sign that the win was taken for granted. The National Party is not perfect by any stretch, and the President and his team must share the blame to a degree, but they rely on intel from the campaign, and the signals from that campaign all pointed to an easy win. Lets face facts. The campaign is responsible, and from day one they were behind Scott Brown in every way imaginable. They were outsmarted, and even worse than that, they were out-hustled.

As far as Scott Brown goes he and his team deserve respect on multiple fronts. The strategy of issue generalizations and blasting away at the health care bill worked. The candidate was exceedingly disciplined and did not ever seem to veer off message. And he worked like a horse, truly showing people he wanted their votes in a personal way. He was more than willing to shake hands and be cold while doing it. And as I grit my teeth lets congratulate Eric Fehrnstrom for a job well done. Congratulations to Senator Brown. All parties involved should move to seat Scott Brown now, in advance of certification. Anything less than that would be unacceptable.

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More Senate Polling and Handicapping

The folks over at Public Policy Polling have released their last Massachusetts Senate survey, and it shows Republican Scott Brown with a five point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley. I have attached the press release and the poll results from Public Policy, and some of the trends we have seen in other polls come through again here. In particular this poll shows an “enthusiasm” gap between Brown voters and Coakley voters, and also continues to show the massive deficit Coakley has with unenrolled voters. The Democrats will need a top notch field and GOTV operation to pull this out. And the survey appears to show Democratic voters begining to get energized as they realize that the race may be slipping away.

Chris Cillizza had mentioned the Cook Political Report leaning towards a Brown victory. He now reports that Stuart Rothenberg is leaning towards a Brown victory as well. From Rothenberg:

Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone’s expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win. Move from Toss-Up to Lean Takeover

There will be some rather harsh recriminations within the Democratic Party if Rothenberg is right. But that is a story for another day.

And the latest Coakley ad featuring the President.

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President Obama in Boston

The President swung through Boston to help Attorney General Martha Coakley yesterday, giving a boost to the campaign in its final days. And what a final few days it has been. Chris Cillizza over at “The Fix” has estimated outside group spending to be close to $5 million dollars coming down the stretch. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is pouring in $1.6 million dollars, giving Martha Coakley about a $1 million dollar advantage coming down the stretch from these independent ad buys. Scott Brown will benefit from ad buys from the Tea Party Movement, the Chamber of Commerce, as well as some smaller Republican leaning groups. And Cillizza is also pointing to Charlie Cook (Cook Political Report) making the following call:

“Given the vagaries of voter turnout, particularly in lower participation level special elections, this race could still go either way, but we put a finger on the scale for Brown,” wrote Cook.

Given the closeness of this race the Democrats are pulling out all the stops. They know the stakes are huge for them, and those stakes extend far beyond passing the health care bill. A Coakley loss will reverberate nationally and set the stage for a very tough mid-term for the national Democratic Party.

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The President on Banking Reform

The President talks about banking reform, and his proposal to assess fees on major financial firms in order to recoup the huge amount of bailout funds provided to the finance sector by American taxpayers. The President talks about additional reforms to prevent some of the abuses that led to the financial meltdown that has caused such hardship in this country. As the banks pay big bonuses folks wonder about the claims made that the finance industry cannot “afford” such fees. This issue has become a major debating point in the U.S. Senate race, with Republican Scott Brown against the fee, and against government regulation of Wall Street. Democrat Martha Coakley stands firmly for the fee, and for common sense regulation of the financial markets. A good message for the President.

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Suffolk Shocker: Brown Takes Lead

The latest Suffolk Poll showing Scott Brown with a four point lead over Martha Coakley has sent shock waves through the Senate race, bringing heightened national attention and continuing the trend that has brought Brown into this race when he should have been knocked out weeks ago. The sudden surge has sobered up the Democratic Party, who are now bringing in the top national guns in an attempt to salvage this race. President Clinton visited yesterday, and President Obama will take the time to visit this weekend. The health care bill hangs in the balance, with many other Obama initiatives perched precariously upon that 60th vote.

I continue to be intrigued, and shocked, by the mass migration of unenrolled voters away from Coakley in this campaign. These numbers portend huge trouble for our Party, and are reflected in the polling in the Governor’s race as well. It ought to be a wake up call and really needs to be looked at, before those numbers become viral. In the Washington Post I thought Mary Beth Cahill summed up what such introspection should focus on:

We will have to provide an answer to voters who think, “What about me?” We will have to make the case that the far-reaching legislative programs in energy, financial regulation and health care the party is pursuing will make the daily lives of Americans better, and that we see the changes as critical to the concerns of American families. …Right now, people can see the banks benefiting, but positive change in their lives seems to be far in the future even as the economy improves.

Not bad advice. I have attached the Suffolk survey marginals below.

http://c.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f9/16977198001?isVid=1&publisherID=245991542

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