State Treasurer Tim Cahill has let it be known that he will switch his party affiliation to unenrolled from Democratic, setting up an independent bid for the Governor’s Office next year. Cahill has been the regular whipping boy of Democratic blogs, and was embarassed when he could not win a delegate slot at the Democratic National Convention, denied by state party regulars. And yes I understand that Cahill’s political operation let him down on the delegate matter, but that left a bitter taste in Cahill’s mouth. And the incessant pounding from the left has to leave him in serious doubt about his ability to garner 15% at a Democratic Convention. I understand the raw political calculus that goes into the Cahill decision, but lets cut the malarkey about him being “loved” by the Democratic Chair “while he is a Democrat”. He was in part pushed out, despite the “love” that Chairman Walsh professes. A bigger load of putrid smelling stuff is the Chairman’s notion that of course Cahill would have received the fifteen percent necessary for ballot access. From the Globe:
Walsh yesterday called Cahill ” a credible candidate for anything he would run for. As long as he’s a registered Democrat, I love him dearly.”
He said he believes Cahill would have no problem winning enough convention votes to run in a Democratic primary.
So what is the real effect of the Cahill gambit? His move now has to be seen as attempting to impact Charlie Baker’s decision on whether to run, which is supposedly due soon. My own thought is that with Cahill and Baker both in the race Governor Patrick has a clear path to victory. It is when the Republicans nominate a marginal candidate other than Baker that the Governor ought to start sweating. And if that happens then Cahill will have the potential to merge, for one election cycle, the center right against Patrick, and will have a clearly defined path to victory. Take a look at the Governor’s poll ratings amongst unenrolled voters, and that path for Cahill lights up like an airport runway at night. Cahill can still crash and burn, but there is a way to win. Kicking Cahill around in the most savage personal terms may be good sport, but complaining when he hits back seems like a big whine to me. And if Charlie Baker takes a pass there may be plenty to whine about!
Bill Manzi.com 
Mayor Manzi:
In many ways, I hope is run is good as it can pull voters away from Democrats and may have him or a Republican victor on Beacon Hill.
BTW have you begun shopping more in NH since the sales tax went up to 6.25%
Gerard
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Gerard,
I have not started shopping in NH. We have the Loop, and that, along with Mann’s, is where you will find me. I do think that the sales tax increase was a horrendous idea, and that many will shop in NH. State tax policy is a jobs and economic development killer, and has vaporized business along the NH border.
Bill
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Your Honor,
I notice you left Christy Mihos out of your calculus equation. I believe he is a parameter that would effect the result if he choses to run as a Republican. Unless, of course, if you deemed him a looser in a primary fight.
I did not know you hung out at the Loop. That would have been the place we would have met to pay off your long standing bet with me. However, I do offer you the opportunity to apply a 5% sales tax one more time before the cost goes up. Just let me know.
Jules. large coffee with cream and 2 sweet and low.
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The race for Gov is shaping up to be a good one. This is a gutsy move by Cahill. Patrick has to respect both Cahill and Baker if they both run. They are both strong candidates. Right now, I still have to give the edge to Patrick. He is the incumbent and has some positive accomplishments that he can run on. He just has to control his message. Massachusetts is still heavily Democratic and let’s not forget that very popular President Obama is sure to make a few stops in Boston on Deval’s behalf.
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The Patrick campaign has blown up a lot of bridges Matt. Obama will have to do more than show up to save his friend.
The Deval patrick campaign was the prototype of the Obama campaign. the use of WORDS worked after 16 years of Republican administrations. But have the WORDS really resulted in institutional and ransformational change?
The diference for Deval Patrick after the primary was that a united Massachusetts Democratic Party under Phil Johnston was able to deliver $2 million to a broke Patrick campaign to get on TV the day after the primary.
Who lost Cahill for the Democratic party will be the stuff of speculation and heartache for many years.
The whole idea that all Democrats must conform to dictates is not what the Masachusetts Democratic party has been all about.
.we are diverse..we are different ..we reflect the people, we serve…not all liberal..not all conservative..its a big tent that now has a serious rip in it.
A real shame!
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Bob,
The Democratic party has got itself a great scam. Early pensions; Multiple pensions; Hackdom (you rub y back and I will rub yours); Serve one day get pension credit for the whole year; lose and election and and you can double your pension; get free bubble gum and you get it added to your pension.
Now, I assume your going to tell me that the ‘reform’ package handled the inequities. I say maybe, but the issue is what kind of corrupted individuals even dreamed up this racket and voted it into law?
Jules
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