With both conventions over and the VP process complete some of the dust is begining to settle as far as political impacts, and the McCain campaign has come out with a surge and some momentum. A new Washington Post/ABC News survey shows that McCain has pulled into a statistical dead heat with Obama. From the Post:

Sen. John McCain has wiped away many of Sen. Barack Obama’s pre-convention advantages, and the race for the White House is now basically deadlocked at 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for McCain among registered voters, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. The presidential contest is also about even among those who are the most likely to vote in November: 49 percent for McCain, 47 percent for Obama.

McCain’s selection of Palin has had several positive impacts for his campaign, one of which is a total reversal of the support of white women in this race, from an Obama advantage of eight points to a McCain advantage of twelve points. If that number is accurate then Democrats ought to be real scared. McCain also moved the numbers towards him on the issue of which candidate represents real change. Obama still maintains a twelve point advantage on that issue, but it is down from thirty-two points pre-convention. Palin’s political history has been put out front and center as a “reformer” who took on the good old boy network. McCain’s convention theme painting him as a maverick who has taken on his own party establishment dovetailed beautifully with the Palin selection and has moved the “change” number in his direction.

Most everyone agrees that the Palin selection moved the Republican base towards McCain. Now we see the evidence of that in hard data:

For the first time since the end of the primaries, a majority of voters are enthusiastic about McCain’s candidacy, and the percentage calling themselves “very enthusiastic” has nearly doubled from late August. That percentage is drastically higher now among conservative Republicans and white evangelical Protestants.

And before we Dems just dismiss this it is a vital factor in the post-convention move by McCain. McCain is managing to shore up some critical red states that Obama had put into play with the renewed enthusiasm of the Republican base. That pre-convention lack of enthusiasm for McCain amongst core Republicans contributed heavily, in my opinion, to McCains softness in some of those traditionally red states. As we start to look at the individual battleground states again I think it likely we will find that some real movement to McCain in key states.

And McCain has managed to solidify and build upon his lead in what I like to call the “commander in chief” issues, including Iraq.

McCain has a 17-point lead on which candidate can better handle an unexpected crisis and, for the first time, a double-digit advantage as the one more trusted on international affairs. He also has a 10-point lead on dealing with the war in Iraq, an issue that had divided voters since the outset of the campaign.

The ten point lead on who would best lead on Iraq shows that McCain has turned the war issue around, and has been effective in selling “the surge” as something that worked. Obama has struggled with answering questions related to his position on the surge, and will likely be hammered by additional McCain advertising on that score.

The survey even showed McCain movement on the economy, as well as a host of other issues.

And on the dominant issue of the race, the economy, McCain has whittled Obama’s advantage to five points, the smallest it has been all year. McCain has also drawn even with the senator from Illinois on energy policy and has sharply narrowed Obama’s leads on dealing with the federal deficit and handling social issues such as abortion and same-sex unions. He has also turned around a narrow Obama edge on being seen as the “stronger leader.” The candidates remain about even on taxes, while McCain continues to hold a huge lead on the question of who would make a better commander in chief.

Obama, in a bit of good news, has managed to shore up his base through the convention, now polling at 85 percent support amongst Democrats. He is polling at about 78 percent amongst women who supported Hillary, and about 75 percent amongst all Clinton voters. That number needs to move up for Obama.

I think it fair to say that the McCain campaign gets a big edge coming out of both conventions. The political judgement on the Palin selection, at least for today, appears to me to be solid for McCain, with no evident downside. The McCain camp must also be credited with stomping on the coverage of Obama’s speech with their announcement of Palin. It was a great stroke that was intensified by Palin’s status as an unknown, and really limited the potential Obama bounce. Obama has plenty of time to have some impacts of his own, but the convention ball has bounced towards McCain. Read the Washington Post article here.