The fight for Michigan, a tight battle, is highlighted in the Wall Street Journal. The Journal article puts up some real warning signs for the Obama campaign, focusing on some demographics, Obama’s lack of participation in the primary, and the racial factor, including the resignation of Detroit’s mayor.

Michigan is critical to Obama, and although a McCain win here does not guarantee him victory it becomes very difficult to map out an Obama victory without it. From the Journal:

Losing Michigan would be a tough blow for the Democrats. In 2004’s general election, George W. Bush defeated John Kerry by 286 to 251 in electoral-college votes. If Sen. McCain picks up Michigan’s 17 electoral votes, Sen. Obama would then have to pick up both Colorado and Nevada simply to offset the loss of Michigan. Then, to make up the rest of Democrats’ 2004 shortfall, Sen. Obama would almost certainly have to prevail in several big states the Republicans won last time, including Virginia, Missouri, Ohio or Florida.

The demographics relate to population loss in Detroit.

That raises another issue: depopulation. Detroit has been losing people faster than any other large U.S. city. That includes many black residents, likely Obama voters. More than 80,000 black Detroiters, almost 10% of the city’s population, left between 2000 and 2006, the most recent figures available, according to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey.

The more dispersed Sen. Obama’s Detroit support base is, the harder it will be to roll up the numbers he needs to offset Sen. McCain’s areas of strength.

And the troubles of Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick have not been helpful.

The recent woes of Detroit’s black mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick, haven’t helped. The son of an African-American politician, U.S. Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, the mayor resigned this week as part of a plea bargain concerning multiple criminal charges for perjury, assault and obstruction of justice after trying to cover up a sexual liaison with a member of his staff. Mr. Kilpatrick didn’t return calls seeking comment.

The long, drawn-out scandal had been a boon for Republicans in the state, thanks to a wave of unflattering stories that broke every time the mayor appeared in court. An online video highlighting Sen. Obama’s speech praising Mr. Kilpatrick recently got lots of attention from Detroit newspaper columnists and talk radio.

And some blue collar support that ought to be automatic is not, bringing us back to the old Hillary Clinton charge that Obama would not be able to deliver with working folks.

Mr. Mitchell, a 28-year-old video technician at an auto plant in nearby Pontiac, would seem a promising target for the Democrats this year. In 2000, he bucked his Republican neighbors and voted for Al Gore for President. And while he backed George W. Bush in 2004, today he is angry about Michigan’s weak economy and nervous about the handling of Iraq. Mr. Mitchell says he wants change.

The good news for Republicans: Sen. McCain offers plenty of change for him.

“What bothers me most with Obama, he has no experience,” says the burly, tattooed, divorced father of one, who says he’s working two jobs now to afford health insurance for his daughter. “I believe in change, too. But what kind of change is Obama talking about?”

The Journal article points to some real challenges here for the Dems. There will be a lot of money spent here before this race is over, and I still see a close Obama win. But Michigan is not in the bag, and if any state should be in the bag for Obama it is Michigan.

Read the Journal article here.