The key battleground states will determine the outcome of this Presidential race, and we will begin to look at them in conjunction with my posting on the Electoral Map. Lets look today at the state of Michigan, with 17 electoral votes. A Rasmussen Reports survey of August 7 has Barack Obama leading John McCain 47% to 40%. When undecided voters who are “leaning” in a certain candidates direction are factored in Obama’s lead shrinks to 49% to 45%. Michigan has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections, with Kerry just edging Bush 51% to 48%.
Despite Michigan’s recent propensity to vote Democratic Rasmussen has it in the “leans Democratic” column. The candidates are focusing on this state as in play as well. From Rasmussen:
Michigan is increasingly viewed as one of a handful of states that the election will turn on, so both candidates are now spending more on ads there. Obama just this week proposed $4 billion in loans and tax credits to help retool closed factories in Michigan, and his energy plan calls for federal funding to help the ailing auto industry produce more fuel-efficient vehicles. McCain is reportedly considering Mitt Romney as a running mate because the latter is a native of Michigan and is popular with voters in the state.
As you might expect Michigan voters believe the economy is the top issue facing the country. From Rasmussen:
Michigan has been harder hit economically than many parts of the country, and over half of the state’s voters (52%) now say economic issues are their number one concern in this election, up from 49% in July. National security, which was the top issue in the 2004 election cycle, is now viewed that way by only 18%.
I have called Michigan (today) for Obama, and think McCain will need to go some to turn that around. I am sure that Obama will remind Michigan voters that McCain had essentially written off their industrial job losses as unavoidable, and not likely to come back. (Before Steve Schmidt put a stop to that type of free wheeling comment).
Pick: Obama by 4 points.
Bill Manzi.com 
Your Honor,
How far back has job loss been going on? I will be researching the issue for discussion. My take it will be going back quite a while and will be an issue tied to the cost of manufacturing.
I remember as a young boy reading about the disappearance of textile jobs to the south, and the Democrats still outnumbered the Republicans. yet it did not save the jobs.
Then the military electronic jobs followed the textile and further surplanted by the PC industry. Now that’s going away.
No political act could help.
Still doesn’t.
Michigan is going through the same change.
Keep in mind other people now do what we do and in some cases better and cheaper. (Note: according to my SME (Society of Manufacturing Engineers) sources, there is an Automotive engineering shortage in Michigan.
Even as new foreign plants are built very few will be built in Michigan. Union activity part of problem.
Jules
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Jules,
A great debate for a campaign. Your argument does have some merit, as job loss likely has gone on for a while. But what we are seeing is job hemmoraging, with many folks believing that NAFTA and other free trade agreements have hollowed out America’s manufacturing base. I myself believe that free trade agreements have been destructive to our industrial sector.
Michigan voters will not likely embrace a free trade agenda in the next election. John McCain is the free trade candidate.
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Your Honor,
These treaties are not the cause of the problem. Another red herring.
The cause is the general collapse of the Detroit automotive industies cause by weak managers and predatory unions.
These companies are almost hollow shells trying to recover from years of restrictive, costly contracts. Now with a quantum shift in buying habits they scramble to shift to “eco friendly small cars”. The industry could implode.
This a Michigan inspired problem.
If they don’t reflect on this and shift attitude, the unemployment will contiue to climb.
If you think the treaties are to blame describe in detail so I can understand.
Ju;es
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