Two new polls show that in both Texas and Ohio the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is to close to call. From MSNBC:
According to an MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon survey in Texas, Obama is ahead of Clinton, 46%-45%, although that lead is within the poll’s 4% margin of error. The subgroups break out in predictable ways: Obama leads among men (54%-37%), those under 50 (56%-36%), African Americans (86%-6%), and independents and Republicans (55%-34%); Clinton leads among women (51%-40%), those over 50 (54%-38%), whites (53%-38%), Hispanics (62%-30%), and Democrats (50%-42%).
And we see a similar situation in Ohio, with the same sub-group breakouts.
In Ohio, per a new Cleveland Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon poll, it’s Clinton 47%, Obama 43% — and that, too, is within the survey’s 4% margin of error. Also, the subgroups in Ohio mirror those in Texas, with Obama winning among men, African Americans, those under 50, and those wanting change; while Clinton leads among women, whites, those over 50, and those wanting experience.
With Obama roughly outspending Clinton two to one in paid media he has been able to close the gap in both states, with a knockout blow ready to be delivered. Tuesday should be an interesting day for political addicts.
Bill Manzi.com 
PRAY that Hillary wins at least one contest on Tuesday. If she loses all four, she won’t have an excuse to continue. If she wins one state, perhaps Rhode Island, she can make the case to continue the race into Pennsylvania. I can’t see how she pulls off Texas. The caucus process will certainly favor Obama, and he already has a lead among likely primary voters. Rhode Island is a tossup, and Vermont is a safe Obama state. The key is Ohio — both candidates are within the margin of error.
Here are my predictions:
TEXAS
Obama — 53%
Clinton — 46%
RHODE ISLAND
Clinton — 52%
Obama — 47%
VERMONT
Obama — 65%
Clinton — 34%
OHIO
Obama — 51%
Clinton — 48%
I have a feeling that Hillary will pull off Rhode Island, but I don’t think that her lagging campaign will pull through in the big two.
As a result, I do think that she will stay in until Pennsylvania — even though, if my prediction is correct, she won’t be able to mathematically beat Obama when it comes to the number of delegates. At this point, neither of the two candidates will have the nomination clinched by the time the convention comes around. This means that either Clinton or Obama will have to step aside after either 3/4 or Pennsylvania for the sake of party unity.
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I don’t believe she survives without at least one of the two big states (Texas or Ohio) but even primary wins in both but an Obama sweep of the Texas caucus makes it a real problem for her to continue. She really needs to sweep both States in order to make a credible case for continuing. Certainly RI would be a nice win, but it will not, by itself, allow her to survive.
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That’s very true. The Clinton campaign is apparently threatening a lawsuit against the Texas Democratic Party as a result of their “confusing” caucus system. Candidates who are on the winning side of elections don’t tend to threaten lawsuits concerning a race. In my opinion, if you can’t perform at a caucus, you’re just not organized enough. If the Clinton campaign was truly organized, there should be no excuse for 70-30% caucus blowouts.
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Your Honor,
A curious turn of events has Rush Limbaugh (and others) enticing the Republicans to vote for Hillary on Tuesday.
His goal is to keep both Democrats at their collective throats through their convention.
Question; Do you feel the overly long election cycle has been good for the country?
Jules.
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No I do not believe the permanent campaign has been good for the country. When is there time to govern without worrying about raw partisan advantage? I heartily endorse the concept of both parties exploring fully the real differences that exist, but it does not have to be every day of every year. It just has not worked.
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How true, your honor, it seems we have been on a permanent nomination process. One more poll result report will send me to the rubber room.
Just think of what Hillary and Obama are going to do to each other for the next 7 weeks while we wait for the Pennsylvania vote.
I believe the Democratic party is in danger of splitting apart between race and gender over a possible or perceived stolen election.
The Democratic party is now dummer than the Republican party.
Jules
This is getting worse.
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