Rudy Guiliani’s strategy of passing over the early primaries and banking on later wins to salvage the Republican nomination appears to be the wrong strategy for the wrong candidate. A new Florida survey shows how bad the situation really is. The Washington Post reports:
A new poll for the St. Petersburg Times shows McCain and Romney leading the contest in Florida, with Giuliani and Huckabee fading. The poll put McCain at 25 percent and Romney at 23 percent, with Giuliani and Huckabee tied at 15 percent each, and 13 percent undecided. The Times’s November poll had Giuliani in front of Romney by nearly 2 to 1.
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) said he thinks the new poll reflects fallout from Giuliani’s failure to win in any of the earlier states. “It’s important to win,” Crist said in an interview at the governor’s mansion. “If you’re going to win somewhere, you’ve got to win.”
McCains ascent would really be cemented with a win here. An interesting sidebar in this race is that the Florida primary is closed, meaning that only Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. McCain’s huge advantage with independent voters will not help him here, but a win will show that he is about to close the deal with the Republican base.
Guiliani’s slide is not restricted to Florida. He has lost ground nationwide.
Giuliani faces his rivals in this make-or-break state not as the powerful national front-runner he once was, as his standing evaporated while he largely took a pass on most of the early presidential contests.
A new Field poll in California, which votes Feb. 5, shows a dynamic similar to Florida’s, with Giuliani at 11 percent, down from 25 percent a month ago. McCain led the poll with 22 percent, and Romney was second with 18 percent.
And so it is down to the Mittster and McCain. In a great verbal tussle between those camps over changing positions on the Bush tax cuts the McCain team gave out a pretty good zinger.
A Romney news release ridiculed the McCain ad as a flip-flop, noting that the senator opposed Bush’s tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. Brian Rogers, a McCain spokesman, responded dryly that “Mitt Romney has earned the Olympic gold medal for flip-flopping in this race.”
Not bad. I guess the sniping is not restricted to the Democratic race. Read the Washington Post story here.
Read “The Fix”, the Washington Post political blog, on the challenge to McCain from the closed Florida primary here.
Bill Manzi.com 
Your Honor,
I believe there wil be no Conservative in the Presidential Race.
Guiliani would be acceptable.
Romney next, reluctantly.
Can’t find a substantian difference between McCain and Hillary, except McCain is a RINO. If she is elected president I know what to expect. (under no conditions would I vote for Hillary like I voted for you)
Jules
LikeLike
If Romney wins the Florida primary, he’ll be the big winner on Super Tuesday. If he can force Giuliani out of the race with a big win in the Sunshine State, he will likely run the table in the Northeast and do well as expected in the Western states. I’m still unsure about California. Romney does have a decent amount of strength there, but McCain is also very strong as well. Florida will be an excellent indicator of how Super Tuesday will turn out.
LikeLike
Ron Paul is the only conservative running. i said it once and ill say it again.
he makes sense PLEASE LOOK INTO RON PAUL!
LikeLike
Clinton and McCain are likely to romp on Super Tuesday.
Here’s a recap of this week’s Super Tuesday polls for the Democrats:
ALABAMA
Clinton – 37%
Obama – 28%
Edwards – 12%
ARIZONA
Clinton – 41%
Obama – 26%
Edwards – 12%
CALIFORNIA
Clinton – 41%
Obama – 28%
Edwards – 11%
CONNECTICUT
Clinton – 41%
Obama – 27%
Edwards – 9%
GEORGIA
Obama – 41%
Clinton – 35%
Edwards – 13%
ILLINOIS
Obama – 51%
Clinton – 22%
Edwards – 15%
MASSACHUSETTS
Clinton – 59%
Obama – 22%
Edwards – 11%
MISSOURI
Clinton – 44%
Obama – 28%
Edwards – 23%
NEW JERSEY
Clinton – 49%
Obama – 32%
Edwards – 10%
NEW YORK
Clinton – 49%
Obama – 27%
Edwards – 10%
TENNESSEE
Clinton – 34%
Obama – 20%
Edwards – 16%
LikeLike
Here’s the Super Tuesday polls for the GOP:
ALABAMA
Huckabee – 27%
McCain – 27%
Romney – 15%
Giuliani – 8%
Paul – 3%
ARIZONA
McCain – 41%
Romney – 21%
Huckabee – 8%
Giuliani – 6%
Paul – 3%
CALIFORNIA
McCain – 26%
Romney – 18%
Giuliani – 11%
Huckabee – 11%
Paul – 6%
CONNECTICUT
McCain – 39%
Giuliani – 16%
Romney – 11%
Huckabee – 8%
GEORGIA
Huckabee – 34%
McCain – 19%
Romney – 16%
Paul – 12%
Giuliani – 11%
ILLINOIS
McCain – 31%
Romney – 20%
Giuliani – 13%
Huckabee – 11%
MASSACHUSETTS
Romney – 50%
McCain – 29%
Huckabee – 7%
Giuliani – 6%
Paul – 3%
MISSOURI
McCain – 29%
Huckabee – 26%
Romney – 20%
Giuliani – 8%
Paul – 6%
NEW JERSEY
McCain – 29%
Giuliani – 26%
Romney – 14%
Huckabee – 9%
Paul – 7%
NEW YORK
McCain – 30%
Giuliani – 21%
Romney – 13%
Huckabee – 10%
LikeLike
Here’s my projection:
– Giuliani’s Florida/Super Tuesday strategy will go down as one of the biggest mistakes in modern presidential campaign history. He went from being the clear and consistent frontrunner in every poll throughout 2006 and early/mid 2007. He is about to come in third in Florida, and get blown away in every Super Tuesday state should he remain in the race.
– Huckabee was another one of those candidates who were built to fly in the early states, but crash soon after. If Huckabee doesn’t fare well against McCain in the South on Super Tuesday, he’ll be on a plane back to Little Rock on Wednesday.
– If Romney loses Florida (even if he comes in a close second), he’s finished. Should Giuliani drop out after coming in third, which is expected, his supporters will likely flock to McCain in the Super Tuesday states. Like Huckabee, Romney needs to beat McCain in both the Northeast and the West handily on Super Tuesday.
– Although every pollster and pundit has been dead wrong about nearly every aspect of this race so far, there is one thing that can’t be mistaken: McCain has made a huge comeback, and it looks like he’ll be the one who will be delivering an acceptance speech in Saint Paul this summer.
LikeLike