The Democratic primary race to succeed Congressman Martin T Meehan has tightened considerably. In a poll commissioned by candidate Eileen Donoghue and reported in today’s Lowell Sun Nikki Tsongas leads at 25.7%. followed by Eileen Donoghue at 16.8%, Barry Finegold at 12.9%, Jamie Eldridge at 10%, Jim Miceli at 3.8% and undecided at 29%. The survey results stand in stark contrast to a June Tsongas poll which showed her with a commanding 23 point lead over Donoghue. It appears that Tsongas has been hurt by gains by Eldridge in the South, as well as Finegold in the Merrimack Valley. Donoghue is shown with a commanding lead over Tsongas in Lowell, and contrary to the Tsongas campaign spin it appears that her momentum has been stopped. Each candidate commented on the results, with the Donoghue campaign saying
“What we saw in the first poll is that Tsongas’ name recognition and support was a mile wide and an inch deep,” said Donoghue campaign spokesman Scott Ferson.
Eldridge also piled on.
“This poll shows that the race will not be a coronation, and that there is no one with a safe lead,” said Eldridge spokesman Greg LaManna. “It shows that despite Niki Tsongas’ television advertisement and direct mail by Finegold and Donoghue, voters are still looking for strong leadership.”
The early Tsongas lead was predictable, and although her campaign organization is technically superb maybe she figures that she can sit on the lead and run out the clock. Technically proficient but strategically conservative the campaign seeks to offend no one. Is this the right strategy? Can she be caught? In the interest of full disclosure I have endorsed Eileen Donoghue in this race. Link to the Lowell Sun story here.
Bill Manzi.com 
Your Honor,
Eileen Donoghue has plied my household with mail. Pretty sophisticated. Looks like she runs a tight campaign.
She won’t get my vote, though.
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Jules,
I had you figured for a Tsongas vote in the primary. (A little 5th Congressional humor).
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The only poll that counts is the one that will be conducted on 9/4.
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IS THE POLL REAL?
As a sophisticated political person, I’m suprised you wouldn’t add a disclaimer about different polls, different samples, different numbers. The margins of error in Ms. Donoghue’s poll rise significantly when you get into regions with 60, 70 or 80 total votes. Questions have been raised on other blogs about why she’s used two different pollsters and whether her campaign staffers actually made the calls.
As I’m a Tsongas fan, I appreciate your compliments on the organization. I think its a bit of conventional wisdom that Niki is too cautious. When every other candidate is ready to attack you (and it could get nastier), that’s somewhat natural.
Anyway, I think a Tsongas can deliver for us in the Fifth District and that’s important to me.
Eileen is a quality candidate, but she may have peaked. The poll story seems a little hard to believe.
Anyway, keep blogging. Very intelligent. You could be the next Tim Russert if you lose your day job!
Will
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Will,
I had not heard that any competing campaign had challenged the survey methodology, and I recognize that in terms of the geographic breakdown in the Fifth District the survey may not have included enough samples to be representative,(i.e. if someone were going to sample Lowell only a bigger sample would be used) but the overall District results don’t seem to be in dispute. If the numbers are right then it would appear to me that Tsongas may have peaked and that Donoghue is moving in the right direction. Polls are fine, and we can discuss the spin all day, but the election will be won on the ground. Speaking of the ground there are rumors that changes have been made to the Tsongas field operation. Any truth to those rumors? I’m hoping to keep my day job! Thanks for the kind words.
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I don’t know about that but I can tell you the lights are on late in the Tsongas Lowell office. I agree that with an election on the day after Labor Day, the winner will have turned out their votes.
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