Bill Manzi.com

With both conventions over and the VP process complete some of the dust is begining to settle as far as political impacts, and the McCain campaign has come out with a surge and some momentum. A new Washington Post/ABC News survey shows that McCain has pulled into a statistical dead heat with Obama. From the Post:

Sen. John McCain has wiped away many of Sen. Barack Obama’s pre-convention advantages, and the race for the White House is now basically deadlocked at 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for McCain among registered voters, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. The presidential contest is also about even among those who are the most likely to vote in November: 49 percent for McCain, 47 percent for Obama.

McCain’s selection of Palin has had several positive impacts for his campaign, one of which is a total reversal of the support of white women in this race, from an Obama advantage of eight points to a McCain advantage of twelve points. If that number is accurate then Democrats ought to be real scared. McCain also moved the numbers towards him on the issue of which candidate represents real change. Obama still maintains a twelve point advantage on that issue, but it is down from thirty-two points pre-convention. Palin’s political history has been put out front and center as a “reformer” who took on the good old boy network. McCain’s convention theme painting him as a maverick who has taken on his own party establishment dovetailed beautifully with the Palin selection and has moved the “change” number in his direction.

Most everyone agrees that the Palin selection moved the Republican base towards McCain. Now we see the evidence of that in hard data:

For the first time since the end of the primaries, a majority of voters are enthusiastic about McCain’s candidacy, and the percentage calling themselves “very enthusiastic” has nearly doubled from late August. That percentage is drastically higher now among conservative Republicans and white evangelical Protestants.

And before we Dems just dismiss this it is a vital factor in the post-convention move by McCain. McCain is managing to shore up some critical red states that Obama had put into play with the renewed enthusiasm of the Republican base. That pre-convention lack of enthusiasm for McCain amongst core Republicans contributed heavily, in my opinion, to McCains softness in some of those traditionally red states. As we start to look at the individual battleground states again I think it likely we will find that some real movement to McCain in key states.

And McCain has managed to solidify and build upon his lead in what I like to call the “commander in chief” issues, including Iraq.

McCain has a 17-point lead on which candidate can better handle an unexpected crisis and, for the first time, a double-digit advantage as the one more trusted on international affairs. He also has a 10-point lead on dealing with the war in Iraq, an issue that had divided voters since the outset of the campaign.

The ten point lead on who would best lead on Iraq shows that McCain has turned the war issue around, and has been effective in selling “the surge” as something that worked. Obama has struggled with answering questions related to his position on the surge, and will likely be hammered by additional McCain advertising on that score.

The survey even showed McCain movement on the economy, as well as a host of other issues.

And on the dominant issue of the race, the economy, McCain has whittled Obama’s advantage to five points, the smallest it has been all year. McCain has also drawn even with the senator from Illinois on energy policy and has sharply narrowed Obama’s leads on dealing with the federal deficit and handling social issues such as abortion and same-sex unions. He has also turned around a narrow Obama edge on being seen as the “stronger leader.” The candidates remain about even on taxes, while McCain continues to hold a huge lead on the question of who would make a better commander in chief.

Obama, in a bit of good news, has managed to shore up his base through the convention, now polling at 85 percent support amongst Democrats. He is polling at about 78 percent amongst women who supported Hillary, and about 75 percent amongst all Clinton voters. That number needs to move up for Obama.

I think it fair to say that the McCain campaign gets a big edge coming out of both conventions. The political judgement on the Palin selection, at least for today, appears to me to be solid for McCain, with no evident downside. The McCain camp must also be credited with stomping on the coverage of Obama’s speech with their announcement of Palin. It was a great stroke that was intensified by Palin’s status as an unknown, and really limited the potential Obama bounce. Obama has plenty of time to have some impacts of his own, but the convention ball has bounced towards McCain. Read the Washington Post article here.

The fight for Michigan, a tight battle, is highlighted in the Wall Street Journal. The Journal article puts up some real warning signs for the Obama campaign, focusing on some demographics, Obama’s lack of participation in the primary, and the racial factor, including the resignation of Detroit’s mayor.

Michigan is critical to Obama, and although a McCain win here does not guarantee him victory it becomes very difficult to map out an Obama victory without it. From the Journal:

Losing Michigan would be a tough blow for the Democrats. In 2004’s general election, George W. Bush defeated John Kerry by 286 to 251 in electoral-college votes. If Sen. McCain picks up Michigan’s 17 electoral votes, Sen. Obama would then have to pick up both Colorado and Nevada simply to offset the loss of Michigan. Then, to make up the rest of Democrats’ 2004 shortfall, Sen. Obama would almost certainly have to prevail in several big states the Republicans won last time, including Virginia, Missouri, Ohio or Florida.

The demographics relate to population loss in Detroit.

That raises another issue: depopulation. Detroit has been losing people faster than any other large U.S. city. That includes many black residents, likely Obama voters. More than 80,000 black Detroiters, almost 10% of the city’s population, left between 2000 and 2006, the most recent figures available, according to Brookings Institution demographer William Frey.

The more dispersed Sen. Obama’s Detroit support base is, the harder it will be to roll up the numbers he needs to offset Sen. McCain’s areas of strength.

And the troubles of Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick have not been helpful.

The recent woes of Detroit’s black mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick, haven’t helped. The son of an African-American politician, U.S. Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, the mayor resigned this week as part of a plea bargain concerning multiple criminal charges for perjury, assault and obstruction of justice after trying to cover up a sexual liaison with a member of his staff. Mr. Kilpatrick didn’t return calls seeking comment.

The long, drawn-out scandal had been a boon for Republicans in the state, thanks to a wave of unflattering stories that broke every time the mayor appeared in court. An online video highlighting Sen. Obama’s speech praising Mr. Kilpatrick recently got lots of attention from Detroit newspaper columnists and talk radio.

And some blue collar support that ought to be automatic is not, bringing us back to the old Hillary Clinton charge that Obama would not be able to deliver with working folks.

Mr. Mitchell, a 28-year-old video technician at an auto plant in nearby Pontiac, would seem a promising target for the Democrats this year. In 2000, he bucked his Republican neighbors and voted for Al Gore for President. And while he backed George W. Bush in 2004, today he is angry about Michigan’s weak economy and nervous about the handling of Iraq. Mr. Mitchell says he wants change.

The good news for Republicans: Sen. McCain offers plenty of change for him.

“What bothers me most with Obama, he has no experience,” says the burly, tattooed, divorced father of one, who says he’s working two jobs now to afford health insurance for his daughter. “I believe in change, too. But what kind of change is Obama talking about?”

The Journal article points to some real challenges here for the Dems. There will be a lot of money spent here before this race is over, and I still see a close Obama win. But Michigan is not in the bag, and if any state should be in the bag for Obama it is Michigan.

Read the Journal article here.