Battleground Michigan No More

Posted on October 3, 2008 by billmanzi

The McCain campaign, seeing the handwriting on the wall, yesterday pulled resources out of Michigan, conceding the state to Barack Obama. The decision will allow McCain to focus scarce resources to other states where the campaign feels they can be competitive. From the Washington Post:

McCain will cease airing television ads in the state, and most of his staff will be redirected to other battlegrounds, including Maine, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, campaign officials said. Plans for direct mail in Michigan will be canceled and no new field offices will be opened as the campaign enters its final weeks.

In the face of falling poll numbers in a number of key swing states, McCain senior adviser Greg Strimple called Michigan “the worst state of all of the states that are in play. It’s an obvious one, from my view, to come off the list.”

We have highlighted Michigan heavily on this blog as a must win state for Barack Obama. Obama has concentrated heavy resources there, and has suceeded.

McCain seems to be sinking heavily in PA as well, and I predicted yesterday that he would pull out of PA. He pulled out of Michigan instead. But the key battleground states are tilting towards Barack Obama, and it is getting a little bit harder to figure the McCain route to 270 electoral votes.

Posted in Electoral Map, National News | Leave a comment

Palin-Biden Debate. Who won?

Posted on October 3, 2008 by billmanzi

The hype is over, the talking heads have spoken. Who won? Palin without a doubt exceeded expectations, and drove the debate at times. Biden got his major themes across and was a steady hand at the wheel. It appears to have been gaffe free, with both sides likely satisfying their base. The question is would either performance be likely to swing undecided voters towards their ticket?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27001471#27001471

Posted in National News | 11 Comments

Debate Preview- Palin on the Supreme Court

Posted on October 2, 2008 by billmanzi

Is this a preview of things to come tonight? Well maybe Katie Couric slipped Joe Biden the questions before she asked them. I wonder what you think. Who sounds better? Who will win tonights debate? Does Palin win just by breathing? Should be good T.V. and make for some very tough blogging tommorow. Enjoy the debate.

http://www.cbs.com/thunder/swf/rcpHolderCbs.swf?partner=userembed&vert=News&autoPlayVid=false&releaseURL=http://release.theplatform.com/content.select?pid=kmbZJiBysEZaxIgmdRiNHdo6IMUVVQB6

Posted in National News | 7 Comments

Bush calls for House Action

Posted on October 2, 2008 by billmanzi

President Bush calls for action by the U.S. House on the bailout package passed by the Senate. Will it have an impact in the House, and if so will it be a positive one? Does the House pass this?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/26992364#26992364

Posted in National News | Leave a comment

Governor Patrick Cuts Budget

Posted on October 2, 2008 by billmanzi

Governor Deval Patrick announced today a sweeping set of action items, including a seven percent across the board cut in the executive branch, as well as ordering the Secretary of Transportation to draw legislation abolishing the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority. He is considering further consolidations, placing Lt. Governor Tim Murray in charge of a task force to study other potential areas of consolidation. He asked Treasurer Tim Cahill to recommend legislation to amend the pension systems of the M.B.T.A., as well the Commonwealth.

From Boston.com:

Citing lagging revenues and warning that the “road ahead will be rough,” Governor Deval Patrick this morning outlined a slate of spending cuts and long-term reforms, including dismantling the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority.

With state revenues falling $188 million behind expectations in September, Patrick said his administration would identify “hundreds of millions of dollars” in cuts before Oct. 15. He said the cuts would have an impact on both state services and the state workforce.

“I know that what I have outlined will not be easy,” he told reporters and television cameras in a room next to his corner office. “Behind every one of the cuts we make or reforms we propose is a family, a small business, a nonprofit, or a worthy idea. However, as disruptive as these cuts may be, the circumstances demand action.”

The Governor still faces a range of problems with some of these proposals, including how to abolish the Turnpike Authority. With bondholders needing to be paid there are some trickly legal issues to be overcome. But he has made a start, although he was heavily criticized by the State Republican Party.

Meanwhile, Republicans today have started criticizing the governor – as well as the Democrats in the state Legislature — for not trimming the budget passed in July in anticipation of financial problems ahead.

“Governor Patrick signed a budget increasing spending by $1.4 billion, authorized $16 billion in new borrowing, and has hiked taxes by hundreds of millions of dollars this year,” Barney Keller, spokesman for the state Republican Party, said in a statement.

The Governor faces a difficult financial picture, with State revenues lagging badly at this point.

The Department of Revenue reported today that revenue for the first quarter had come in $223 million below expectations without counting nonrecurring payments. Counting those one-time payments, revenues were lagging $143 million behind what was expected. September was the worst of the three months, with revenues dropping $188 million.

Local aid has escaped the ax, for now. We must hope for the best, and plan for the worst.

http://services.brightcove.com/services/viewer/federated_f8/271552990

Posted in State News | 1 Comment

The Local Aid Issue

Posted on October 2, 2008 by billmanzi

As we see economic problems overtaking federal and state government it is a necessity to begin the planning process in case the situation gets bleaker. On that basis I have this week ordered our Department Heads to begin planning for a mid year budget cut that would entail a five percent or a ten percent reduction in their overall budgets. I am hopeful that such an eventuality will not occur, but the planning for it must start now. We are examining all options including further management consolidations and other cost saving measures. I have attached my memo as a pdf file.

Memo

Posted in Methuen, State News | Leave a comment

Methuen Boys and Girls Club Spelling Bee

Posted on October 2, 2008 by billmanzi

The Methuen Boys and Girls Club Project is hosting a Spelling Bee on Saturday, November 1st (between 3-8 p.m.) at the CGS, and is in need of volunteers as Spelling Bee Coaches, Judges and Food/Raffle Table Managers. For more information I have attached the event flyer for you in pdf. form. Please consider volunteering for this great event.

Boys and Girls Club

Posted in Methuen | 1 Comment

Palin on Energy

Posted on October 2, 2008 by billmanzi

Governor Sarah Palin, one of the worlds foremost experts on energy (according to John McCain), takes another trick question from an audience member and gives a tour de force on oil supplies. Hopefully she will clarify her comments at tonights debate.

Posted in National News | 5 Comments

Obama surges in key states

Posted on October 2, 2008 by billmanzi

Quinnipiac University Polling Institute released their swing state polling data yesterday, and it shows a remarkable swing towards Barack Obama in the key battlegrounds of Florida, PA, and Ohio. Obama is better positioned on the ecomony than McCain, and appears to have benefitted from the Wall Street financial meltdown. In Florida Obama has moved over the fifty percent mark for the first time. FLORIDA: Obama 49 – McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 – McCain 43 post-debate. I had McCain winning FLA in my electoral map. That may need to be changed. In the critically important State of Ohio: Obama 49 – McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 – McCain 42 post-debate. I had Obama winning that State, and I believe he will. McCain’s potential road to victory is very hard to figure without a win in Ohio. In PA the Obama lead has widened to a semi-rout: PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 – McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 – McCain 39 post-debate. A fifteen point lead, if accurate, may force McCain out of PA in terms of resource allocation. I had Obama winning PA in my electoral map exercise, and that should hold handily.
The debates did not appear to help McCain, and the weight of the Palin gaffe machine is putting a real burden on his campaign. From the survey press release:

“It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century,” Brown added.

“Sen. McCain’s problem is not with this or that demographic group. Although he still leads among white men, albeit by a smaller margin, his problems are across the electorate.

The McCain campaign is clearly in trouble, with gambles on Palin and a proper response to the Congressional bailout bill blowing up in his face. He may have damaged himself beyond repair in PA, and has limited time and resources to reverse the tide in Ohio. The bell will begin to toll for this campaign shortly without a major reversal for Obama.

October Survey

Posted in Electoral Map, National News | 2 Comments

Austerity?

Posted on October 2, 2008 by billmanzi

An interesting column in yesterday’s Globe op-ed, calling for the government to reign in spending and the deficits. No doubt a minority view at this point, and almost laughable with the government throwing around $700 billion dollar bailouts like quarters. And with interest on the national debt included in the FY2008 budget at about $431 billion we spend more on that line item than just about any other item. I wonder if we could build some infrastructure, or help struggling cities and towns by spending $430 billion on them instead of bondholders. But I digress.
The austerity piece calls for the government to begin enacting fundamental fiscal reforms that address the issue of America spending beyond its means.

Many politicians decided reelection depended on cutting taxes and offering more benefits. Increase Medicare, postpone Social Security reform, hire more bureaucrats, and pay for a two-front war. Debt grew to pay for this party. These were not true tax cuts, just postponed debt; now we owe more and the bill has come due with interest.

It is no doubt true that at this singular moment cutting back would likely have dire financial consequences. But in my view you just cannot keep spending beyond your means forever. If that were the case why would we worry about the future solvency of Social Security. If there will be a shortfall then we can just borrow it. The authors of the article point to the potential disaster of a currency collapse.

The United States requires a massive restructuring to address its debt, cutting back on its borrowing, spending, and wars. The bailout package is essential to keep the credit markets open. But absent sentences that include the word austerity all the bailout will accomplish is a temporary postponement. Bailout and stimulus are a stopgap.

A solution requires the country to begin to spend what it earns, reduce its mountainous debt, and address massive liabilities, restructure Social Security, pension deficits, military, and Medicare. No wonder politicians would rather spend more of your money now rather than address these problems. Because we have been spending 5 to 7 percent more each year than we earn, a forced restructuring, triggered by a currency collapse, would have the same effect on wages and purchasing power that the housing collapse had on housing prices. So let’s learn from our Latin and Asian friends and act before it is too late.

But then again that prescription would require someone, somewhere to tell people things that might mean lost votes and lost elections. So we continue the debt ride and see where it takes us. Read the Globe article here.

Posted in National News | 1 Comment