Volcker to Head New Advisory Panel

President-elect Barack Obama today named a new group of economists to advise him and told the country that “help is on the way.” From the Washington Post:

President-elect Barack Obama named a board of economic experts from outside the government to advise him, in his latest bid to reassure nervous consumers and financial markets that he will bring swift economic relief as president.

Obama made the announcement Wednesday in Chicago at a morning news conference in which he tried to reassure Americans that “help is on the way” for the economy.

Obama named former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to head the panel.

The panel — called the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board — is intended to help Obama bring stability to the financial markets and create jobs.

Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, 81, will head the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, while the board’s top staff official will be Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist.

“He pulls no punches,” Obama said of Volcker. “He seems to be fairly opinionated.”

Volcker is credited with stomping out inflation during his tenure at the Fed, but he did so by pushing interest rates to record highs and tripping a short term recession. He is known as a man with strong opinions, and an impeccable reputation. Another good choice by President elect Obama.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27927097#27927097

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More Transportation, More Outrage

Yesterday’s Globe detailed the downward spiral in the financial picture of the Turnpike Authority, with financial instruments used by the Turnpike Authority several years back now blowing up in their face. From the Globe:

Beginning in 1999, the Turnpike Authority entered into complex arrangements – known as credit swaps – with three investment banks as a means of raising cash to pay off rising Big Dig debt. Essentially, the banks paid the Turnpike Authority cash for the right to swap interest rates with the agency on future debt payments. The deals, while immediately raising $71.5 million in cash for the agency, left it vulnerable to fluctuations in interest rates. The deals also established termination fees that rise and fall based on market conditions.

Earlier this year, a declining market had raised the termination fees on the deals to about $200 million, which the Turnpike could be forced to pay immediately if certain triggers were tripped. By Friday, that liability had risen to about $447.7 million. Making things worse was a decline in the credit rating for the turnpike’s insurer last week; another step down could trigger an immediate request for payment from one of the banks of about $353 million.

The use of these credit swaps has been known for some time, but the Patrick Administration now fears that a legislative effort to freeze tolls pending further review could actually produce a scenario where these payments are “tripped” by a further deterioration of the Pike’s finances.

Patrick administration officials, several of whom spoke with the Globe on the condition they not be named, revealed the news in part because of worries that legislative attempts to put the proposed toll hikes on hold could trigger a demand that some of the investments be paid off in full, in one lump sum. But even if the toll increases are given final approval by the turnpike board, the threat still looms that the authority could soon be sent a bill for $353 million if the financial markets continue to deteriorate.

The Governor continued to take some lumps from the Legislature, with Senator Mark Montigny asking why the Administration has failed to act to void these agreements.

Montigny faulted the Patrick administration for failing to investigate fully the complicated investments that led to problems. He said other government agencies that have seen complex investments turn sour during the credit crisis have been able to renegotiate or terminate their agreements after proving they were entered into nefariously.

The existence and downward potential of these credit swaps will not deter legislative critics of a toll increase.

“The Legislature would never take any action that would impact in a negative way the credit rating of the turnpike authority, but we have an absolute obligation to discuss public policy on behalf of our constituents,” said Representative David Linsky, a Natick Democrat who opposes raising tolls and says he will continue to fight against them.

If the worst case scenario unfolds here tolls alone will not be able to pay the bill. The circumstances surrounding the purchase of these swaps needs to be looked at closely, and the Commonwealth needs to move to void these transactions if the purchases were not made in accordance with the law.

The House and Senate Chairs of Transportation have sent Governor Patrick a letter calling for the formation of a Transportation Reform Steering Group to look at ways to “reform” our transportation system. The letter is from the new blog of Senator Baddour.

Dear Governor Patrick,

We are writing to invite you and members of your administration to join members of the legislature to form a Transportation Reform Working Group to develop a comprehensive transportation reform plan.

Decades of neglect and indifference to the needs of the Commonwealth’s diverse transportation network has resulted in an unsustainable system. As the Transportation Finance Commission reported, virtually every transportation agency in the State is running structural deficits and resorting to short-term quick fixes that hide systemic financial problems; the condition of our roads, bridges, and transit systems are all in broad decline; revenue is being squeezed from all sides; and the Commonwealth has no money for transit or highway enhancements or expansions without further sacrificing our existing systems and exacerbating our problems.

Public dollars for transportation need to be spent more resourcefully because each dollar saved is a dollar we do not have to raise. The legislature has consistently applied this philosophy in its reform proposals for transportation. This philosophy seeks to ensure that tax- and toll-payer money is spent effectively and efficiently so we don’t pump new funding into a broken system.

Massachusetts tax-, toll- and fare-payers Massachusetts deserve assurance that their money is being well-spent right now. By working together, we can present viable solutions to make our transportation system sustainable for future generations.

Thank you for your attention to this matter. We look forward to your participation in this joint effort.

Best regards,

Rep. Joseph F. Wagner
State Representative
House Chairman
Joint Committee on Transportation

Sen. Steven A. Baddour
State Senator
Senate Chairman
Joint Committee on Transportation

Posted in State News | 1 Comment

Obama talks about budget waste

With the announcements by President elect Obama of his new team at OMB he called for a new effort to trim government waste, specifically targeting farm subsidies (good luck Mr. President) as well as the spiraling cost of health care. We have already covered the potential appointment of Peter Orszag, and President elect Obama made that official with this announcement. From the Washington Post:

Orszag, 39, is director of the Congressional Budget Office, where he oversees a staff of 235 people who produce nonpartisan analyses of economic and policy issues. Orszag is widely respected for his work on how Americans receive medical care. Unlike many of his predecessors, who hewed closely to pure number-crunching, Orszag has carved out a niche as a leading international thinker on health policy.

The Orszag appointment was followed by the appointment of Rob Nabors as Orszag’s deputy at OMB.

Obama also named Rob Nabors, staff director of the House Appropriations Committee, as deputy director of OMB. Before joining the appropriations staff in 2001, Nabors worked in OMB under the Clinton administration, where he was a senior adviser and assistant director for administration.

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Gates to stay at defense

Current Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will be asked by President-elect Obama to stay in that position, likely for about one year according to multiple media sources. Gates is a former CIA Director, as well as a close friend of the Bush family. He is also closely associated with Brent Scowcroft, former national security advisor to George H.W. Bush. Scowcroft has reportedly been an informal advisor to President-elect Obama, a rather intriguing matchup. Scowcroft was an opponent of the Iraq war, and a critic of the foreign policy of George W. Bush. He has waged ideological war on the neo-cons that populated Bush 43’s cabinet. Obama continues his tack towards the center, and a moderate foreign policy based on “realism”.

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All Transportation, All the Time

I know this is not a transportation blog, but the bad place we find ourself in transportation wise in Massachusetts just keeps dominating the news cycle, and is so important to us in so many different ways that I just have to keep posting on it. Today the Washington Post details the situation facing the incoming Secretary of Transportation, and some of the very difficult problems facing that person and President-elect Obama. From the Post:

The next transportation secretary will walk into an agency that oversees an outdated air traffic control system; congested roads, rails and skies; crumbling highways and bridges; and a financing system teetering on collapse. Transportation experts, both parties in Congress and the current White House agree that the traditional ways of easing congestion and funding transportation are not working and that a fundamental overhaul is needed.

A key problem is the Highway Trust Fund, which generates about $50 billion annually for road, bridge and transit projects. The vast majority of this money — about 82 percent — goes to roads and bridges, while 15 percent goes to transit and 3 percent toward highway safety.

The fund dates from 1956 and relies on the federal gasoline tax, which has not been increased by Congress in 15 years. The tax is not indexed to inflation, so it remains steady at 18.4 cents per gallon, despite the rise in gas prices.

Sounds like Massachusetts! As we talk about teetering towards an insolvent system in Massachusetts the federal government faces its own transport finance quandry.

In the past fiscal year, the fund was taking in less revenue than it was paying out to states. It was headed for insolvency in September when Congress stepped in with an $8 billion emergency transfer from the general fund. Without that, hundreds of transportation projects underway across the country would have slowed or stopped.

Some think that the infusion is not enough to keep the highway fund afloat.

“It won’t get us through the year,” said John Horsley, executive director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.

The funding debate has a familiar ring to it.

Meanwhile, the costs of maintaining the country’s transportation network and expanding it to accommodate growth are soaring. Transportation spending at federal, state and local levels totals about $90 billion annually. But the nation needs to spend about $225 annually for 50 years to create a highway and transit system that can sustain economic growth, according to the nonpartisan National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission, chartered by Congress.

The commission recommended gradually increasing the federal gas tax to 40 cents a gallon, a move that the Bush administration and many in Congress have opposed. President-elect Barack Obama has not said whether he favors raising the tax.

Other ideas to raise revenue include expanding toll roads, increasing public-private partnerships and using congestion pricing, a system in which motorists or transit passengers pay more during peak travel periods. Another idea, which is being tried in Oregon, is to charge motorists a tax based not on the gas they buy but on the number of miles they drive.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg rolled out a congestion pricing plan some months ago, but it was derailed in the New York State legislature. And public-private partnerships, talked about recently in the Massachusetts Senate, are on the menu of President Bush. But the approach has critics.

Under Bush, the department has been shrinking the federal role in road building and public transportation and opening the sector to private investors who assume the risks of building the projects in exchange for profits from tolls and fees.

Congressional Democrats and some Republicans, along with transit advocates, have accused the department of rationing good road transportation to those who can afford fees, tolls and taxes. In some cases, the public-private partnerships have lacked adequate protection of the public interest, according to reports by the GAO.

The new Secretary will also have to deal with Amtrak, bleeding money and with little political consensus on where it should be heading, as well as the need to upgrade our air traffic control system, a huge expense. The battle over who pays for our system, and what kind of system we should have, is just begining, and will have huge ramifications for us as a nation. Read the Washington Post story here.

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Obama introduces his economic team

Here is President-elect Obama bringing out his economic team today. No suprises here.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27891658#27891658

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Stimulus Package Growing

President-elect Barack Obama and his advisors are sending strong signals that a proposed stimulus bill could be in the $700 billion dollar range. From the Washington Post:

Facing an increasingly ominous economic outlook, President-elect Barack Obama and other Democrats are rapidly ratcheting up plans for a massive fiscal stimulus program that could total as much as $700 billion over the next two years.

Transition officials are also talking about delaying the repeal of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy.

Transition officials would not confirm that they are considering spending of that magnitude, but they made clear that economic conditions are dire, and suggested that Obama might be forced to delay his pledge to repeal President Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy.

The stimulus will likely contain money for additional state aid to states and cities, new public works projects, and energy projects.

The plan would include new funding for public-works projects to repair the nation’s crumbling infrastructure, as well as a fresh infusion of cash to promote green technology and alternative-energy sources. It also would include targeted tax cuts for working families, students, the elderly and job-creating businesses that Obama touted on the campaign trail.

Yesterday’s Eagle Tribune ran a story talking about a new “WPA” and what that might mean for the Merrimack Valley. John Kerry was quoted:

U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., is also pushing a number of bills in the spirit of the WPA. Last week, he introduced legislation to create jobs by turning “America’s outdated and underfunded passenger rail system into a world class system.

“Today we are as far from the New Deal as the New Deal was from the Civil War,” Kerry said in a recent speech at North Shore Community College. “But even though times are different, we can still learn lessons from those days. And the clearest one is that in tough economic times, the government needs to step up and do what it takes to keep the lights on.

“Now, as then, crisis brings with it an opportunity to invest in rebuilding America,” Kerry said. “And if we’re living in the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression, why not respond with the greatest national rebuilding since the New Deal?”

And Congresswoman Tsongas has indicated that “shovel ready” projects will be first in line. Mayor Jim Fiorentini of Haverhill will be ready with projects.

Haverhill Mayor James Fiorentini has already begun to prepare for the eventuality of a stimulus bill.

Fiorentini said he received a phone call from an official in Gov. Deval Patrick’s administration the day after Obama won the presidency, telling him to start working on a list of construction projects that are “ready to go.”

The funding criteria is likely to be “design-ready projects that put people on the street working immediately,” the mayor said.

The Mayor is correct. We have received the same word in Methuen, and the Trib story had some talk of preparation here in Methuen.

Methuen Mayor William Manzi said there are some projects that Methuen could potentially use the money for.

One of them would be widening the Howe Street bridge near The Loop. That has been talked about, but it would be an enormous expense. Manzi said he likes the idea of using federal money for public works projects.

“I think it’s a good idea on a couple of different levels,” he said, adding it would put people to work and address infrastructure needs at the same time.

We have projects ready to go, like the Appleyard project in downtown, the Stadium Clubhouse project, and the potential for a Methuen stop on a Manchester to Boston rail run. There is much planning to be done, and we would like additional information before we spend design money on projects that might not come to fruition. But it appears more likely than ever that the biggest stimulus bill of our lifetime is right around the corner.

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Federal Bailout of CitiGroup

The Federal government moved late last night to stabilize Citigroup by injecting billions of dollars into the beleagered firm. Citi has seen its stock price fall by over 60 percent, ending at $3.77 last week. It has billions of dollars in morgtage backed securities on its books that are at the center of the bank’s problems. It is also a financial giant, with over two trillion in assets on its books. From the Washington Post:

The Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced just before midnight Monday that they will protect Citigroup, one of the nation’s largest banks, against potential losses on a $306 billion pool of troubled assets. Citigroup would absorb the first $29 billion in any further losses on these assets, which are primarily securities backed by mortgages and commercial real estate loans, with the government stepping in to cover most of the losses beyond that amount. The distressed assets would be fenced off by Citigroup from the rest of its holdings, allowing the firm to insulate itself from the fallout.

The government in return is to receive up to $7 billion in preferred shares.

The Treasury also will invest another $20 billion in Citigroup on top of the $25 billion of taxpayer dollars already invested in the bank this fall. In exchange, the government will get even more preferred shares, paying an 8 percent return.

As a condition of the emergency assistance, the company will have to adhere to new restrictions on what it pays its executives and carry out an FDIC program to help homeowners avoid foreclosure, according to a statement by the three government agencies involved. The terms of the new cash injection are also less favorable for the company’s shareholders than those of the initial infusion by limiting stock dividends to a penny per share in each quarter over the next three years.

The Sunday New York Times did an expansive story on how Citi came to be in the bad spot they are in today, and it is nothing short of an outrage, with the risk managers looking the other way as the bank piled up these mortgage backed securities and padded executive bonuses with the higher rate of return those securities offered. Now the government must step in. Another shock to the financial system. Federal Reserve of New York Chairman and incoming Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was involved in the negotiations that led to this government action.

Posted in National News | 7 Comments

Richardson, Summers and Orszag Join Cabinet

On Monday President elect Obama will round out his economic team by having Larry Summers, Bill Richardson, and Peter Orszag join Tim Geithner as the heart of the new economic team. Have these economic appointments ever been more important? The portfolios are below. My condolences to Orszag, who is looking at red ink that would have been unthinkable six months ago, with no short term prospects for budget balance any time soon.

Larry Summers, Chair of the National Economic Council

Bill Richardson, Secretary of Commerce

Peter Orszag, Director of the Office of Management and Budget

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Lebanese Independence Day

Lebanon Independence

Methuen is flying the Lebanese Flag all weekend to honor the 65th anniversary of Lebanese independence, celebrated on November 22. Methuen, as well as the Merrimack Valley, has thousands of American citizens of Lebanese descent. Happy Independence Day!

Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri (L) chats with President Michel Sleiman (C) as Prime Minister Fouad Siniora (R) looks on during a military parade to celebrate the 65th anniversary of Lebanon’s independence day in downtown Beirut November 22,2008.

Officials

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