The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 by Paul Kennedy

My rating: 5 of 5 stars


Paul Kennedy’s “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers” is a monumental work of historical scholarship that meticulously examines the dynamics behind the ascent and decline of major global powers throughout history. Kennedy’s book is still considered a classic, and his scholarship continues to have relevance today. Originally published in 1987, Kennedy’s insights and analysis continue to resonate today, offering us lessons on the connection between the economic health and the military reach of the prominent empires of the past 500 years.

What is the theory? Kennedy sums it up in the introduction:

“It sounds crudely mercantilistic to express it this way but wealth is usually needed to underpin military power, and military power is usually needed to acquire and protect wealth. If however too large a proportion of the state’s resources is diverted from wealth creation and allocated instead to military purposes, then that is likely to lead to a weakening of national power over the longer term. In the same way, if a state overextends itself strategically-by, say, the conquest of extensive territories or the waging of costly wars-it runs the risk that the potential benefits from external expansion may be outweighed by the great expense of it all-a dilemma which becomes acute if the nation concerned has entered a period of relative economic decline.”

Kennedy, Paul The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers pg. xvi

Kennedy surveys the rise and fall of several great powers, including Spain, the Netherlands, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany, to list a few. He traces their trajectories, exploring the complex factors that propelled their ascent and ultimately led to their decline. By examining multiple case studies, Kennedy constructs a comprehensive framework for understanding the recurrent patterns and common themes that characterize the rise and fall of great powers. The discussion can be technical, with economic tables spread throughout, but it is understandable.

Kennedy’s historical analysis is deeply rooted in economic factors. He emphasizes the critical role that economic strength plays in determining a nation’s ability to project power and sustain its position as a global leader. His examination of economic resources, technological advancements, and the management of finances sheds light on how economic imbalances can contribute to the decline of a power and create vulnerabilities that are exploited by rising powers. Kennedy’s analysis is concise, his conclusions difficult to refute.

Kennedy skillfully weaves political, military, and local factors into his narrative. He delves into the importance of military advancements, technological innovations, geopolitical strategies, and political institutions, in shaping the destiny of great powers. This multidimensional approach provides a nuanced understanding of the interplay between various elements and their impact on the rise and fall of nations.


“The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers” will not be for everyone, and could not be described as a page-turner. The book’s length and detailed analysis make it more of an academic exercise, but fascinating and illuminating for those interested. It stands as a seminal work that continues to shape our understanding of international relations and the dynamics of power. It is a true classic, and highly recommended.

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