It is quite obvious that we will have, probably within the next month, a proposal to shelve the toll increases proposed by the Mass Turnpike and move to a gas tax increase of undetermined magnitude. The Governor, engaged in an online chat over at Boston.com, has not so subtly shown movement towards an increase. From the Boston Globe:

“I hate the proposed toll increase, like everybody else,” Patrick wrote during an online chat on boston.com, where he fielded six questions from the public. “. . .The gas tax could be a serious alternative.”

Several weeks ago, Patrick had deflected any suggestion of a gas tax increase.

“The whole question of gas taxes versus toll increases is not quite where the choice is right now,” Patrick said at a Nov. 20 press conference. “It will take time to have a comprehensive debate about the gas tax.”

New Transportation Secretary Jim Aloisi, when asked about the toll increase vote for next week,refused to answer or endorse the increase.

Yesterday, when asked if he was prepared to approve the increase, reschedule the vote, or reduce the level of increase, he said, “Stay tuned.”

There are still many moving parts to this question, but with the Governor moving slowly towards a gas tax increase and the Speaker of the House already on record as favoring a gas tax increase, our watchful gaze turns towards the Senate, where the stated position has been that no new revenues will be considered until “reform” is in place. I believe the Senate view is evolving on this issue as well. When the Governor files his transportation package there needs to be some real reform attached in order to make a gas tax increase saleable to the public. And real reform certainly means more than consolidating all the separate Transportation portfolios under one roof. The Governor did lay down some political markers that would need to be included to get his support for a gas tax increase.

Patrick said that any increase in the gas tax should be high enough to not only avoid the latest round of toll hikes but to remove toll booths completely, or avoid future sharp increases.

He also said there should be provisions that the money not be used for anything but transportation, and that a gas tax hike be linked to overall transportation reform, including creating a single umbrella transportation agency.

The movement towards an increase in the gas tax has started. How high will we go, and will transportation reform be a real part of the ultimate solution that comes out of Governor Patrick? As Jim Aloisi says, “stay tuned”.