Quinnipiac University Polling Institute released their swing state polling data yesterday, and it shows a remarkable swing towards Barack Obama in the key battlegrounds of Florida, PA, and Ohio. Obama is better positioned on the ecomony than McCain, and appears to have benefitted from the Wall Street financial meltdown. In Florida Obama has moved over the fifty percent mark for the first time. FLORIDA: Obama 49 – McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 – McCain 43 post-debate. I had McCain winning FLA in my electoral map. That may need to be changed. In the critically important State of Ohio: Obama 49 – McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 – McCain 42 post-debate. I had Obama winning that State, and I believe he will. McCain’s potential road to victory is very hard to figure without a win in Ohio. In PA the Obama lead has widened to a semi-rout: PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 – McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 – McCain 39 post-debate. A fifteen point lead, if accurate, may force McCain out of PA in terms of resource allocation. I had Obama winning PA in my electoral map exercise, and that should hold handily.
The debates did not appear to help McCain, and the weight of the Palin gaffe machine is putting a real burden on his campaign. From the survey press release:

“It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century,” Brown added.

“Sen. McCain’s problem is not with this or that demographic group. Although he still leads among white men, albeit by a smaller margin, his problems are across the electorate.

The McCain campaign is clearly in trouble, with gambles on Palin and a proper response to the Congressional bailout bill blowing up in his face. He may have damaged himself beyond repair in PA, and has limited time and resources to reverse the tide in Ohio. The bell will begin to toll for this campaign shortly without a major reversal for Obama.

October Survey