Hillary Clinton’s large national lead has evaporated in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Two days before voters in 24 states go to their polling places, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters said they back Clinton and 43 percent said they support Obama, with neither candidate decisively benefiting from the departure of former senator John Edwards (N.C.) from the race.
The survey slices and dices the race in the expected way, looking at some of the fault lines created by this contest.
On the Democratic side, Clinton’s supporters are more enthusiastic than Obama’s, with three in five of hers saying they strongly support her candidacy, compared with roughly half of his who said they back him strongly.
In addition to the experience-versus-change dynamic, gender and racial differences continue to define the Democratic contest. Women support Clinton over Obama by a 15-point margin (53 to 38 percent), while men back Obama by a 10-point margin (50 to 40 percent).
Among white Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Clinton is favored 52 percent to 38 percent, while Obama leads among black voters 62 percent to 30 percent. White men are evenly divided between Clinton and Obama, though white women back Clinton by more than 20 percentage points.
As he did in early-state voting, Obama continues to hold an advantage among independents nationally. He also does better among liberals, particularly among those who said they are “very liberal,” than among moderates or conservatives. Clinton still leads among those with family incomes of under $50,000 and those without college degrees. Obama has a better than 2 to 1 advantage among those with post-graduate degrees.
Democrats continue to give Clinton higher marks on key issues. She holds big leads over Obama on health care and the economy and a narrower edge on Iraq. The two run about evenly on immigration.
And we march into Super Tuesday with a real race on our hands. Obama reported raising over 30 million in one month in the last data I saw, which is extraordinary and will keep him competitive.