Dead Heat in Iowa

A new Washington Post-ABC poll shows a virtual dead heat in Iowa between Senator Barak Obama, Senator Hillary Clinton, and former Senator John Edwards.

In the poll, 27 percent said they would vote for Obama, 26 percent for Clinton and 26 percent for Edwards. The only other Democrat to register in double digits was Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, at 11 percent. Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) and Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) trailed at 2 percent, and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.) at 1 percent.

A hotly contested race to be sure. Retail goes a long way in Iowa, and the Post points out that

As is the case nationally, Clinton gains from being seen as the strongest leader and the most electable contender. But in a state where retail politics can be crucial, she lags far behind her main rivals in voters’ rankings of the most likable candidate.

Edwards has invested heavily here, hoping to build momentum with a victory and offset the natural advantages enjoyed by both Clinton and Obama. But all of the campaigns are ramping it up, and Edwards earlier advantage in the state appears to have been neutralized.

The poll provides stark evidence of how intense the early campaigning has been. The 71 percent of voters who have already received a telephone call from one of the campaigns is about equal to the percentage of likely caucus-goers who reported getting called in December 2003, the month before the 2004 caucuses.

And so John Edwards truly hangs in the balance, and the stop Hillary movement has an opportunity to slow that train down. But a Hillary victory could create a small stampede based on the inevitability factor. Will Hillary close the deal in Iowa?

Read the Washington Post story here.

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3 Responses to Dead Heat in Iowa

  1. This poll has sealed John Edwards’ fate. He staked his entire campaign on Iowa; it is over.

    Actually, for us political junkies, this is no surprise.

    But, at least we will start to see less of that pitiful man. Unless, of course, his wife decides to run for him.

    You can read my take at Copious Dissent – Your Daily Dose of Liberty

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  2. DJ says:

    Here are my 2008 predictions…

    January 14 — Edwards wins Iowa

    January 19 — Richardson wins Nevada

    January 22 — Clinton wins New Hampshire

    January 29 — Clinton wins New Hampshire, Obama wins South Carolina

    February 5 — The only two states Edwards wins will probably be North Carolina and Tennessee…Obama will take the rest of the South and Midwest (Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Illinois)…Clinton will take Arkansas, California, New York, New Jersey, etc…Richardson will probably sweep the West (Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Idaho, Utah, Oklahoma)

    Edwards will most likely drop out after 2/5, while the Clinton/Obama slugfest continues well into the spring. Richardson will probably drop out after failing to win any other contests, except for the 2/9 primary in Nebraska.

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  3. DL says:

    If the top runners are down, who’s up? I think that’s obvious, but the mass media is avoiding the fact that RON PAUL is moving up in the polls. Their silence on this candidate speaks volumes. Misleading the public by ommission is the same as lying. Wake up America!

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