With all of the debate about the collapsed immigration bill in Washington there has been little attention paid to the wider political ramifications of this failed compromise. Todays New York Times talks about the growing clout of Hispanics in the primaries of both parties, and the perceived political effect of the failed immigration bill.
Roughly two-thirds of the nation’s Hispanic residents live in nine of the states holding Democratic primaries or caucuses on or before Feb. 5.
The potential backlash against the Republican Party is substantial, and could be long lasting.
The bill’s setback — a major defeat for President Bush — could complicate Republican efforts to win over the fast-growing Hispanic electorate and help Democrats solidify their hold on these voters, an electoral prize expected to increase in importance in coming decades.
I would point to former California Governor Pete Wilson’s anti-immigrant stand as helping to create a strongly Democratic California as a prime example. The Republican division is deep on this issue, with President Bush and the business wing of the G.O.P. for the immigration bill, and the balance of the right wing vehemently against it. These divisions are so deep that the deeply conservative National Review has issued a challenge to the Wall Street Journal editorial page to debate the issue. There is no question that President Bush and Karl Rove hoped to leverage a “progressive” immigration policy to help create the “permanent Republican majority”. That political outreach to the Hispanic community had produced real results for the Republicans. Those results are now being rolled back.
While Mr. Bush’s popularity with Hispanics had been a factor in drawing large numbers of them to the Republican Party, many Hispanics appear to be returning to the Democratic fold as conservative efforts gained momentum last year to restrict immigration and build a wall along the Mexican border.
Republican political problems are without a doubt centered on the war in Iraq, but the problems run far deeper than that. With members of his own Party calling for his political hide over this issue the President will likely lead the Party to another poor round of results in 2008.
Bill Manzi.com 
The truth of the matter is that the math does not add up. If we were to grant amnesty and thats what it was where would the money come from to hire the 275 workers to process the 12 million illegals? The cost would be about 800 million, not to mention the bankrupcy of both medicare and social secuity. That is a great deal, what we are saying is we cant enforce our existing laws so we surrender everyone can come in and the government will pay for them. Lets take care of our own first, our veterans, elderly and the disabled and give them a decent quality of life. They deserve it and cant get what they need because of all the services we must provide to the illegals. This is a country of immigrants, if you want the american dream come legally and work for it dont expect the government to give it to you! We are a country of principles and if this nation is going to continue its legacy of supremecy in freedoms and living standards this amnesty cannot continue. I hope for the working tax payers that our elected officials come up with a plan to enforce our existing laws. Thanks
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I have no doubt that your view is prevalent amongst Republicans, and maybe overall. (Although initial polling showed support for the bill in question) My point on the posting was to talk about the political effects that the bill collapsing was having on the Republican Party, and the deep divisions it has sown within that Party. With Pat Buchanan mentioning impeachment in the same breath as the President you know that there are serious divisions there. As to the merits of the bill itself I guess the result had something for everyone to hate. It was not only the Republican right that had objections, but the Democratic left. When Ted Kennedy and George Bush are in agreement some serious give and take occurred. And like sausage making that process is not pretty.
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I concur with your statement aboutBush and Kennedy, no doubt a of give and take occured. The bill is just no good in its existing form. As impeachment goes, I also concur Bush has made several poor decisions on many subjects. I also agree that we need a multi party system for the gives and takes and for the betterment of society. Thanks for your comments, I like how you have reached out to the residents. Thanks for your time in responding!
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Your Honor’
My thoughts. Keep it simple.
1. Bring all borders under control
2. Arrest or fine employers who hire illegal aliens
3. Provide those who wish to return (can’t find work)to their country of origination with money to help re-establish themselves.
4. Assign a population of workers to work at temporary seasonal jobs. Allow illegal aliens to sigh up for the program. Go home afterward.
5. NO Amnesty. I don’t buy the arguments about doing the work Americans won’t do, can’t remove 12 million people, or any of the other excuses to provide amnesty to this largely hispanic population who seem not to like us.
Before I buy into amnesty, some has to give me a reason why any illegal alien should step ahead of any immigrant who is in line to to go through stringent immigration requirements.
Amnesty could make a major shift in the culture in this country. It would make a minority party of the republican party.
I want the republicans to vote principle over corruption. (I think this will not happen).
One last point. This law is written in more than 300 pages which will allow the ACLU to get around any of the new regulations intended to control the problem.
Jules.
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Jules,
It is reported that the President and the group of senators responsible for the original failed bill have agreed to bring it back next week. Two important points of agreement. 1) The President has agreed to a 4 billion dollar increase for border security. 2)Senate Majority Leader Reid has managed to limit the ability of Republican Senators to offer amendments. Eleven amendments offered will be the maximum for each party. With regard to your points there is some consensus on a few, but even then disagreements erupt. I assume all will be for “securing our borders” but how do you achieve that? The President perceived a weakness in the original bill, and offered the 4 billion to “secure our borders” in the new version. That will likely not satisfy many Republicans. Some of your other points would bump into fierce opposition from the business lobby, who will fight additional employer sanctions. The Democrats will oppose any efforts that result in the deportation of 12 million without an alternative route to legal status. They are joined in this by the Republican business lobby. (See the Wall Street Journal Editorial Page) I do believe that this new effort will succeed in the Senate, but will have a difficult time in the House, where Speaker Pelosi will have a hard time with Republicans as well as her own caucus. As I said in my original post there is enough for everyone to hate in this bill, but that what compromises of this magnitude tend to look like.
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Your Honor,
We now are saddled with a problem long in building.
Here are a few long running issues;
1. Employers and citizens looking for cheap labor
2. Advocates looking to add mass to the Hispanic community for purposes of power (as previously discussed)
3. Politicians looking to pander to future democratic voters to distort the balance of power. Very dangerous for our future.
The Republicans, including the president,
cannot be believed. The previous fence legislation which is supposed to build a section of fence has only resulted in a short length. The private land owners may have erected more fence than the government.
The loyal opposition are more in agreement with each other and their special interests-No fence and yes to Amnesty.
You Honor I asked you in the earlier message the following; “Why should any illegal alien go ahead of a legitimate immigrant going through their citizen process”?
I do not hold with rounding up millions of people and throwing them out of the country.
Instead bringing the border under control and hold employers to the law, many should leave. we need to provide an escape path so these people can go home. I would be amiable to giving those who do some cash to get started.
I have no idea what we do with those that remain at this time.
I don’t care about the Republican business lobby. Vote principle.
Another questions;
I have information (unconfirmed) that our senior Senator, Ted Kennedy, has authored 7 immigration bills, all of which failed to halt illegal flow.
Years:
1986
1994
1997 twice
1998
2000 twice.
I do not trust him or his fellow democrats senators either.
I think, overall, we may have party realignments in the near future.
This is the Readers Digest version
This is not going to be pretty.
Have a nice week end.
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Jules,
Thank you for all of your great posts. While I cannot post a full response this minute I can say that in answer to your twice asked question I do not believe that as a matter of principle those following the legal process should be penalized for doing so. So I do not believe that violating the law should put you ahead of those following the law. Whether this bill is good or bad I think in its muddled way it is trying to deal with the twelve million on the ground that are here illegally. There is a Pat Buchanan column that I just read that I think gets to the gist of your argument. Read it at http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=21103. Have a great weekend.
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Your Honor,
In mathematics, to solve a problem there has to be a equation for every variable in the problem.
This immigration problem would fill several dozen black boards with equations.
I can’t imagine what is going to come out of this quagmire. It needs leaders above corruption and blatant partisanship to define and resolve the problem (variables and equations). Our federal legislation is woefully short of that quality
on both sides.
We are just going to have to wait it out.
I think I’ll just follow up on the budget process to find out how much you fellows are going to lower my real estate tax as promised.
(A little partisan humor)
Have a great fathers day.
Jules
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I love how one of my best friends (and my prom date!) is being deported this summer because her mother never claimed her when she became an American citizen. It’s appauling that the drug dealers and illegal immigrants who come here to mess with the system are allowed to stay. Justice? I don’t think so.
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DJ,
I think that situations as you describe have led to the attempt to deal with immigration through our political process. That attempt, up to now, has been a total failure. As Jules points out it is a complex question that brings us to compromises that tend to violate some pretty basic, long held principles. A belated happy Fathers Day to you Jules, and I guess I had that property tax humor coming, in light of my prior ad hominem attacks on the Republican Party.
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How about Meet the Press and the debate on immigration. Link to it here.
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It’s over for this year. I personally am relived that the bill died. Over 400 pages under constant change,senate/house conference committee to iron out differences will provide stealth legislation to sneak in unpublished law. In short, the bill WOULD have given us no border security (I don’t trust Kennedy or Bush) and would provided Amnesty to the illegal aliens already here. They will feed off of us. They do now, but we can keep them in the shadow until cool heads arrive
I don’t know what will happen to my ex party. Maybe they will be killed in the next election. Let the people have the liberals do their thing. Our party needs rebuilding. To repair its soul.
But, your honor, today we’re baaack.
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Jules,
Great Wall Street Journal Editorial this week on the potential fatal blow this may deal to the Republican Party. I wish I could provide a link to it. Here is some analysis from today’s Washington Post on the deep Republican divisions over this bill.
Link to the full story here.
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Your Honor,
This was a horrible bill. The is stuff in it we do not even know about. Have you looked at the bill in any detail. One detail-A large population does not believe the law will be enforced, especially the border enforcement.
I told you about Mort kondracke calling me names, now Novak is using the same language.
This is not about the legal immigrants, it’s about 15 to 20 million illegal aliens. As far as I am concerned that’s 20 million less Democrats without Amnesty.
The Republican party is going to have to reassess itself. The Democrats could return to the ruling party. Vote principle over corruption.
We who are against the bill have every right to be without to feel that way without rancor or insult.
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