The 2016 Electoral Map (Ted Panos Edition)

After plenty of trash talking I have gotten Ted Panos of 980 WCAP to send along his electoral map, with a wager of $100 being made (donated to the Megan House.) I look forward to having Ted make that donation to a very worthy cause.

Despite the different results the maps are remarkably similar. Both have Trump winning Ohio, Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Trump winning North Carolina, Clinton winning Michigan, Trump winning New Hampshire, and Clinton winning Colorado. So where do they diverge? Ted has Trump winning Florida (where the RCP average has shown a small but consistent Clinton lead) and I have Clinton winning Nevada (where the RCP average shows a small lead for Trump.)

The Panos map, drawn by a strong Trump supporter, shows how difficult a path the Electoral College road to 270 is for Trump. Ted gets him to a bare 270 by having Trump run the table on FLA, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. And even with all of that if Trump fails to pick up that single vote in Maine (which both Ted and I give to him) he would still fall one short of 270. Despite lots of talk about Trump breaking through in the industrial midwest neither map gives Trump Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota.

Both Ted and I reserve the right to make changes through Monday. What are my own doubts on the map I produced? North Carolina and New Hampshire were tough calls, and I may yet change them to reflect a Clinton win in one or both. I feel stronger about a Clinton victory in North Carolina, which to my mind would close off any realistic chance of a Trump victory. Finally I still believe that States where the polling margins are paper thin a strong ground game could make a real difference. (A 1% impact via strong GOTV, registration efforts, absentee balloting, etc could be the difference in states like N.H. or North Carolina.) Trump has mocked that concept, and largely outsourced that effort to the RNC. An interesting post-election analysis will determine whether he was correct to do so.

If you would care to join Ted Panos in donating to the Megan House please go to their website and donate. Ted and I both agree on what a great cause it is, and what outstanding work they do each and every day.

If you would like to hear Ted trumpet his map and generally be wrong on most matters, tune into his really big show each and every morning, on 980 WCAP between 6:00 am and 10:00 am. I am especially looking forward to the Wednesday show.

The Manzi Map:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

The Panos Map:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
This entry was posted in Electoral Map, WCAP Podcast and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to The 2016 Electoral Map (Ted Panos Edition)

  1. Daniel Ford says:

    The Ford Map says Clinton 312 Trump 225

    Liked by 1 person

  2. billmanzi says:

    Honestly an uphill map for Trump. All out the window in a “wave” election, but I do not see any Trump wave coming.

    Like

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